Iran Fires on Ships in the Strait — Oil Breaks $100 — BRL Loses R$5.00 — Ibovespa MACD Turns Bearish
Today’s Brazil morning call opens with the war’s frozen conflict thawing in the most dangerous direction. This is part of The Rio Times’ daily Brazil Financial Morning Call, covering Latin American financial markets.
The Strait of Hormuz escalated sharply. Iranian gunboats fired on two commercial ships on Wednesday, and two Iranian oil supertankers tested the U.S. blockade. Brent crude broke back above $100 per barrel for the first time since the ceasefire, and WTI surged to ~$97. The S&P 500 fell 0.41% to 7,108 after hitting a new intraday ATH earlier in the session — the reversal from record highs to red was the most bearish intraday pattern since the blockade announcement. The Nasdaq dropped 0.89% to 24,439, dragged by IBM (−8.6%) and ServiceNow (−18%). The Dow shed 180 points to 49,310. American Airlines cut its 2026 earnings outlook citing rising oil prices from the war.
The Ibovespa extended its correction for a third session, falling 0.78% to 191,378. The chart delivers a critical technical signal: the MACD histogram turned negative at −260.60 for the first time since the ceasefire rally began — a bearish crossover that confirms momentum has shifted. RSI at 64.86 (MA: 52.51) remains bullish but the gap is closing. The USD/BRL bounced back above R$5.00 to R$5.0245 (chart: O:5.0245, H:5.0245, L:5.0245, C:5.0245) — ending the eight-day streak below R$5.00. RSI at 41.87 (MA: 33.47) shows the extreme oversold condition is unwinding as the dollar recovers. The R$5.00 break was historic and structural — but the war’s re-escalation is testing it.
Friday’s calendar: German Ifo Business Climate (04:00, cons: 85.7). BRL Consumer Confidence (07:00). BRL Current Account (07:30). BRL FDI (07:30). Michigan Consumer Sentiment (10:00, cons: 47.6 — would be lowest since 2022). Michigan Inflation Expectations (10:00, 1Y cons: 4.8% — up from 3.8%). Baker Hughes (13:00). CFTC Positioning (15:30). Copom in 4 days. War Day 55.
Three Things That Matter
| Thursday | S&P 500 −0.41% to 7,108 (hit intraday ATH then reversed). Nasdaq −0.89% to 24,439. Dow −0.36% to 49,310. IBM −8.6% (unchanged guidance disappointed). ServiceNow −18% (subscription miss). Tesla −3.56% (Musk: “substantially increase capex”). American Airlines cut outlook on oil. STRAIT ESCALATION: Iranian gunboats fired on 2 ships; 2 Iranian supertankers tested blockade. Brent back above $100. WTI ~$97. Gold −0.87% to $4,698. Claims 215K (above 211K cons). US Mfg PMI 52.7 (beat). Services PMI 51.2 (beat). Chips SOX 17-day streak, 12 consecutive intraday records. Intel +20% after hours. Ibovespa −0.78% to 191,378. USD/BRL bounced to R$5.0245 — lost R$5.00. BTC $77,848 |
| Overnight | Intel +20% after hours (Q2 guidance beat). UK Retail Sales: +0.7% MoM (beat 0.0% cons). French Consumer Confidence dropped to 84 (miss, below 88 cons). S&P futures slightly positive (+0.1%). Oil holding above $96 WTI / $100 Brent. No new military incidents overnight at Strait. Iran reportedly reviewing “options” after gunboat incident. Trump: no comment on Strait firing. Ceasefire extended indefinitely but physical escalation continuing. Blockade Day 12 |
| Today | German Ifo Business Climate (04:00, cons: 85.7 / Expectations 85.0 / Current 86.2). BRL FGV Consumer Confidence (07:00, prev: 88.1). BRL Current Account (07:30, cons: −$5.65B). BRL FDI (07:30, cons: $6.50B). Mexico Economic Activity (08:00). Canada Retail Sales (08:30). Michigan Consumer Sentiment (10:00, cons: 47.6 — potential lowest since 2022). Michigan 1Y Inflation Expectations (cons: 4.8% — up 100bp from 3.8%). Baker Hughes (13:00). BRL FX Flows (13:30). CFTC Positioning (15:30). Copom in 4 days. War Day 55 |
Where We Left Off THURSDAY, APR 23 — SESSION CLOSE
Thursday’s session was the most ominous of the frozen conflict era. The S&P 500 hit a new intraday all-time high in the morning — then reversed sharply to close down 0.41% at 7,108.40 as Iranian gunboat fire on two commercial ships in the Strait reignited the war premium. The Nasdaq dropped 0.89% to 24,438.50, dragged by IBM’s 8.6% plunge on unchanged guidance and ServiceNow’s 18% collapse on subscription revenue disappointment. Tesla fell 3.56% after Musk warned of “substantially increased” capital expenditures. American Airlines beat Q1 estimates but cut its full-year outlook explicitly citing war-driven oil prices — the first major corporate guidance cut directly attributable to the Iran conflict.
The Strait escalation changed the calculus. Iranian gunboats fired on two commercial vessels, and two of Iran’s own oil supertankers attempted to break through the U.S. blockade. Brent crude surged back above $100 — the first time since the ceasefire began — while WTI jumped to ~$97. The physical confrontation in the Strait, combined with Iran calling talks a “waste of time” and the indefinite ceasefire’s diplomatic vacuum, creates the worst operational environment since the blockade’s first day. Citigroup’s $110 warning no longer seems extreme.
The Ibovespa fell 0.78% to 191,378 — its third consecutive decline and lowest close since April 8. Chart: O:192,889, H:193,347, L:190,930, C:191,378. The MACD histogram turned negative at −260.60 (MACD: 3,299.52, signal: 3,038.92) — the first bearish crossover since the ceasefire rally began. This is the technical confirmation that the rally’s momentum has shifted. RSI at 64.86 (MA: 52.51) is still bullish but the trend is clearly decelerating. The USD/BRL bounced back above R$5.00 to R$5.0245, ending the eight-day streak below the psychological barrier. As covered in yesterday’s Morning Call, the 192,000 support level was the critical floor — and it has now been breached.
Market Snapshot DATA AS OF THU, APR 23 CLOSE
| Indicator | Close / Level | Change |
|---|---|---|
| Ibovespa | 191,378 | −0.78% (MACD bearish) |
| USD/BRL | R$5.0245 | Back above R$5.00 |
| S&P 500 | 7,108 | −0.41% (ATH reversal) |
| Nasdaq | 24,439 | −0.89% |
| Brent Crude | ~$100 | Back above $100 |
| WTI Crude | ~$97 | +5% |
| Bitcoin | $77,848 | −0.54% |
| Claims | 215K | Miss (vs 211K) |
What to Watch FRIDAY CATALYSTS
Michigan Consumer Sentiment at 10:00 ET is the session’s most consequential data point. Consensus expects a plunge to 47.6 — which would be the lowest reading since 2022 and a direct reflection of war-driven consumer pessimism. Even more important: 1-year inflation expectations are consensus at 4.8%, up a full 100 basis points from the prior 3.8%. If confirmed, this would be the sharpest one-month jump in inflation expectations since the 2022 cycle — and a direct signal that the oil shock is de-anchoring consumer expectations. For the Fed, this is the most dangerous outcome: collapsing confidence + surging inflation expectations = stagflation in the consumer’s mind.
Brazil’s domestic data is front-loaded: FGV Consumer Confidence at 07:00 BRT (prev: 88.1) will show Brazilian consumer sentiment under the war. The Current Account at 07:30 (cons: −$5.65B) and FDI data (cons: $6.50B) will reveal whether capital inflows supporting the BRL are accelerating or moderating. German Ifo at 04:00 (cons: 85.7) measures European business climate under the blockade. Baker Hughes rig count at 13:00 and CFTC positioning at 15:30 round out the week.
Ibovespa Setup TECHNICAL LEVELS
Chart: O:192,889, H:193,347, L:190,930, C:191,378 (−0.78%). The MACD bearish crossover (histogram: −260.60, MACD: 3,299.52, signal: 3,038.92) is the defining technical event. This is the first negative histogram since the ceasefire rally began on April 7 — a signal that the momentum driving five ATHs has exhausted. RSI at 64.86 (MA: 52.51) is still nominally bullish but the deceleration from the 73+ peak is a clear downtrend. The correction from 198,657 to 191,378 is now −3.7% — still within healthy parameters but testing support.
Resistance: 191,378 (Thursday close) → 192,889 (Wednesday close) → 195,142 (upper range) → 196,075 (upper Bollinger) → 198,657 (ATH).
Support: 191,206 / 191,170 (mid-Bollinger) → 190,930 (Thursday intraday low) → 187,208 (SMA cluster) → 187,197 / 187,197 (key SMA convergence) → 187,040 (20-day) → 180,218 (lower Bollinger) → 159,531 (200-day).
Copom Watch SELIC AT 14.75% · NEXT MEETING: APR 28-29
Four days to the Copom decision. The Strait escalation and oil’s return above $100 Brent materially shift the calculus in the hawkish direction. The BRL losing R$5.00 removes one of the BCB’s key dovish arguments. If Michigan inflation expectations confirm a jump to 4.8%, the global inflation narrative re-accelerates and constrains central bank flexibility everywhere — including in Brasília.
The base case remains a hold at 14.75%, but the forward guidance shifts from “monitoring favorable developments” back to “vigilance on upside inflation risks.” The ceasefire extension provides structural cover — no imminent strike risk — but the Strait firing incident raises the probability of a full military confrontation that would send oil to $110+. The BCB cannot signal cuts when gunboats are firing on ships in the world’s most important oil chokepoint. Today’s BRL data (Current Account, FDI) will determine whether the capital inflow thesis that supported sub-R$5.00 is intact or fraying.
Economic Calendar FRIDAY, APR 24
| Time | Event | Impact |
|---|---|---|
| Pre-Market | UK Retail Sales beat (+0.7% MoM vs 0.0% cons). French Consumer Confidence dropped to 84 (miss). German Ifo Business Climate (04:00, cons: 85.7 / Expectations 85.0 / Current 86.2). Spanish PPI. Spanish Consumer Confidence (06:00) | HIGH |
| 07:00–08:00 BRT | BRL FGV Consumer Confidence (07:00, prev: 88.1). BRL Current Account (07:30, cons: −$5.65B). BRL FDI (07:30, cons: $6.50B — critical for carry trade thesis). Mexico Economic Activity (08:00, cons: +0.70% YoY). Mexico Unemployment (08:00) | HIGH |
| 10:00 | Michigan Consumer Sentiment (cons: 47.6 — potential lowest since 2022). Michigan 1-Year Inflation Expectations (cons: 4.8% — up 100bp from 3.8%). Michigan 5-Year Expectations (cons: 3.4%). Michigan Current Conditions (cons: 50.1). De-anchoring risk if 1Y expectations surge. Canada Retail Sales (08:30) | CRITICAL |
| 13:00–15:30 | Baker Hughes Rig Count (13:00, prev: 410 oil / 543 total). BRL FX Flows (13:30). CFTC Positioning (15:30 — BRL spec prev: +40.0K, Crude spec prev: 206.5K, S&P spec prev: −115.8K). Week-end positioning into Copom countdown weekend | HIGH |
Latin America Markets THURSDAY CLOSE / CHART DATA
| Index | Close | Change | RSI (14) | Signal |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ibovespa | 191,378 | −0.78% | 64.86 | Bullish (fading) |
| IPC (Mexico) | 68,631 | −0.30% | 49.37 | Neutral |
| COLCAP (Colombia) | 2,252 | −1.37% | 44.65 | Bearish |
| IPSA (Chile) | 10,992 | −0.09% | — | Neutral |
| MERVAL (Argentina) | 2,831,849 | −2.31% | 44.34 | Bearish |
The regional correction deepened Thursday as oil’s return above $100 and the Strait firing incident hit every LatAm market. Argentina’s MERVAL was the worst performer, plunging 2.31% to 2,831,849 with RSI falling to 44.34 — now in bearish territory. Colombia’s COLCAP dropped 1.37% to 2,252, RSI at 44.65 — also bearish, as the oil-producing economy faces the paradox of high crude prices but extreme operational uncertainty. Mexico’s IPC slipped 0.30% to 68,631, RSI at 49.37 — teetering at neutral. Chile’s IPSA edged down 0.09% to 10,992. The Ibovespa’s −0.78% was middle-of-the-pack, but the MACD bearish crossover makes it the most significant technical deterioration in the region. As covered in the latest market report, the frozen conflict is thawing — and the market doesn’t like what’s melting out.
Commodities & FX KEY MOVES
Oil is the story. Brent crude broke back above $100 for the first time since the ceasefire as Iranian gunboats fired on two commercial ships and Iran’s supertankers tested the blockade. WTI surged to ~$97. The Friday $82 crash is fully reversed — the Strait firing proves the “frozen conflict” was never frozen, just waiting for a catalyst. Citigroup’s $110 scenario is now the base case if the confrontation escalates further. The ceasefire is intact in name but meaningless on the water.
USD/BRL bounced back above R$5.00 to R$5.0245 (chart: O:5.0245, H:5.0245, L:5.0245, C:5.0245). RSI at 41.87 (MA: 33.47) — the extreme oversold condition is unwinding as the dollar recovers. MACD at +0.0012 (signal: −0.0558, MACD: −0.0570) — the MACD line is starting to cross above zero, suggesting the BRL’s extreme appreciation phase has ended. The eight-day streak below R$5.00 was historic; the bounce above it on Strait escalation is a reality check. Support at R$4.98; resistance at R$5.06.
Bitcoin pulled back to $77,848 (chart: O:78,269, H:78,557, L:77,471, C:77,848, −0.54%). RSI at 63.80 (MA: 61.81) — still bullish but the momentum has plateaued.
Risk Map BULL vs BEAR
| Bull Case | Bear Case |
|---|---|
| The S&P still hit an intraday ATH Thursday — the uptrend is intact — The reversal was driven by a one-time event (gunboat firing) and software earnings misses (IBM, ServiceNow), not structural deterioration. Chips are on a 17-day streak with 12 consecutive intraday records. Intel +20% after hours. Earnings season has 3-of-4 companies beating. The correction is healthy, not threatening.
The Ibovespa’s −3.7% correction has reset overbought conditions without breaking the trend — RSI at 64.86, down from 73.22 peak. The MACD bearish crossover is the first in weeks but the MACD line itself remains elevated. Support at 190,000-191,000 is being tested, not broken. The carry trade at 14.75% remains the structural bid. The ceasefire is still extended — no strikes have resumed — Gunboat firing ≠ resumption of the war. The ceasefire covers military operations, not maritime policing. Trump hasn’t responded. The physical incident may be Iran testing boundaries rather than escalating. Until Trump resumes strikes, the ceasefire framework holds. |
Iranian gunboats firing on ships in the Strait is the most dangerous escalation since the ceasefire — The frozen conflict just heated up. Brent back above $100 confirms the market is re-pricing war risk. If the U.S. retaliates against the gunboats, the ceasefire is effectively dead. If Iran’s supertankers breach the blockade, the U.S. must respond or the blockade loses credibility. The escalation ladder from “gunboat warning shots” to “naval confrontation” is very short.
Michigan at 47.6 / inflation expectations at 4.8% = stagflation in the consumer’s mind — Consumer sentiment at 2022 lows while inflation expectations surge 100bp is the worst combination for the Fed. The rate-cut narrative that powered the ceasefire rally is under threat. If the Fed can’t cut because of de-anchoring expectations, the entire “transitory” thesis collapses. BRL above R$5.00 + Ibovespa MACD bearish + oil $100 = Copom’s dovish window is closed — Four days ago the BCB had BRL at R$4.97, oil at $87, and talks progressing. Now: BRL at R$5.02, oil at $97, gunboats firing, talks dead. The April 28 meeting must default to hawkish hold. The cut cycle that seemed imminent two weeks ago is now deferred to H2 at the earliest. |
Positioning BOTTOM LINE
The war’s frozen phase lasted exactly one week. From the ceasefire extension on Tuesday evening to the gunboat firing on Thursday, the market had five days to breathe. Now the Strait is hot again — Brent above $100, ships under fire, Iran’s supertankers testing the blockade. The S&P 500 hit an intraday ATH and reversed. The Ibovespa’s MACD crossed bearish for the first time since the rally began. The BRL lost R$5.00. The narrative has shifted from “post-war pricing” back to “active conflict pricing” in 48 hours.
For the Ibovespa at 191,378, the 190,000-191,000 support zone is the line in the sand. The correction from 198,657 (−3.7%) is still orderly — within the range of a healthy pullback after five consecutive ATHs. But the MACD bearish crossover, combined with oil above $100 and a deteriorating Strait situation, means the index needs a catalyst to stabilize. That catalyst could come from: (1) today’s BRL data (strong FDI = carry trade intact), (2) a de-escalation at the Strait over the weekend, or (3) the Copom meeting delivering dovish guidance despite the noise. Without one of these, the correction extends toward 187,000-189,000 next week.
The Copom meets in four days. The committee that was positioning for dovish forward guidance now faces gunboats, $100 oil, and a BRL back above R$5.00. The 14.75% Selic hold is certain. The forward guidance is the variable — and it will be determined by whatever happens at the Strait between now and Monday. The carry trade remains structurally sound — 14.75% is 14.75% regardless of daily FX fluctuations — but the easy-money phase of the ceasefire rally is over. The war has returned to the trading floor. Position defensively. Watch the Strait. And prepare for the most consequential Copom meeting since the conflict began.
RT Staff Reporters · This newsletter is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. Always consult a licensed financial advisor before making investment decisions. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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