Brazil Morning Call for Friday, April 24, 2026

Where We Left Off THURSDAY, APR 23 — SESSION CLOSE

Thursday’s session was the most ominous of the frozen conflict era. The S&P 500 hit a new intraday all-time high in the morning — then reversed sharply to close down 0.41% at 7,108.40 as Iranian gunboat fire on two commercial ships in the Strait reignited the war premium. The Nasdaq dropped 0.89% to 24,438.50, dragged by IBM’s 8.6% plunge on unchanged guidance and ServiceNow’s 18% collapse on subscription revenue disappointment. Tesla fell 3.56% after Musk warned of “substantially increased” capital expenditures. American Airlines beat Q1 estimates but cut its full-year outlook explicitly citing war-driven oil prices — the first major corporate guidance cut directly attributable to the Iran conflict.

The Strait escalation changed the calculus. Iranian gunboats fired on two commercial vessels, and two of Iran’s own oil supertankers attempted to break through the U.S. blockade. Brent crude surged back above $100 — the first time since the ceasefire began — while WTI jumped to ~$97. The physical confrontation in the Strait, combined with Iran calling talks a “waste of time” and the indefinite ceasefire’s diplomatic vacuum, creates the worst operational environment since the blockade’s first day. Citigroup’s $110 warning no longer seems extreme.

The Ibovespa fell 0.78% to 191,378 — its third consecutive decline and lowest close since April 8. Chart: O:192,889, H:193,347, L:190,930, C:191,378. The MACD histogram turned negative at −260.60 (MACD: 3,299.52, signal: 3,038.92) — the first bearish crossover since the ceasefire rally began. This is the technical confirmation that the rally’s momentum has shifted. RSI at 64.86 (MA: 52.51) is still bullish but the trend is clearly decelerating. The USD/BRL bounced back above R$5.00 to R$5.0245, ending the eight-day streak below the psychological barrier. As covered in yesterday’s Morning Call, the 192,000 support level was the critical floor — and it has now been breached.

Market Snapshot DATA AS OF THU, APR 23 CLOSE

What to Watch FRIDAY CATALYSTS

Michigan Consumer Sentiment at 10:00 ET is the session’s most consequential data point. Consensus expects a plunge to 47.6 — which would be the lowest reading since 2022 and a direct reflection of war-driven consumer pessimism. Even more important: 1-year inflation expectations are consensus at 4.8%, up a full 100 basis points from the prior 3.8%. If confirmed, this would be the sharpest one-month jump in inflation expectations since the 2022 cycle — and a direct signal that the oil shock is de-anchoring consumer expectations. For the Fed, this is the most dangerous outcome: collapsing confidence + surging inflation expectations = stagflation in the consumer’s mind.

Brazil’s domestic data is front-loaded: FGV Consumer Confidence at 07:00 BRT (prev: 88.1) will show Brazilian consumer sentiment under the war. The Current Account at 07:30 (cons: −$5.65B) and FDI data (cons: $6.50B) will reveal whether capital inflows supporting the BRL are accelerating or moderating. German Ifo at 04:00 (cons: 85.7) measures European business climate under the blockade. Baker Hughes rig count at 13:00 and CFTC positioning at 15:30 round out the week.

Ibovespa Setup TECHNICAL LEVELS

Chart: O:192,889, H:193,347, L:190,930, C:191,378 (−0.78%). The MACD bearish crossover (histogram: −260.60, MACD: 3,299.52, signal: 3,038.92) is the defining technical event. This is the first negative histogram since the ceasefire rally began on April 7 — a signal that the momentum driving five ATHs has exhausted. RSI at 64.86 (MA: 52.51) is still nominally bullish but the deceleration from the 73+ peak is a clear downtrend. The correction from 198,657 to 191,378 is now −3.7% — still within healthy parameters but testing support.

Resistance: 191,378 (Thursday close) → 192,889 (Wednesday close) → 195,142 (upper range) → 196,075 (upper Bollinger) → 198,657 (ATH).

Support: 191,206 / 191,170 (mid-Bollinger) → 190,930 (Thursday intraday low) → 187,208 (SMA cluster) → 187,197 / 187,197 (key SMA convergence) → 187,040 (20-day) → 180,218 (lower Bollinger) → 159,531 (200-day).

Copom Watch SELIC AT 14.75% · NEXT MEETING: APR 28-29

Four days to the Copom decision. The Strait escalation and oil’s return above $100 Brent materially shift the calculus in the hawkish direction. The BRL losing R$5.00 removes one of the BCB’s key dovish arguments. If Michigan inflation expectations confirm a jump to 4.8%, the global inflation narrative re-accelerates and constrains central bank flexibility everywhere — including in Brasília.

The base case remains a hold at 14.75%, but the forward guidance shifts from “monitoring favorable developments” back to “vigilance on upside inflation risks.” The ceasefire extension provides structural cover — no imminent strike risk — but the Strait firing incident raises the probability of a full military confrontation that would send oil to $110+. The BCB cannot signal cuts when gunboats are firing on ships in the world’s most important oil chokepoint. Today’s BRL data (Current Account, FDI) will determine whether the capital inflow thesis that supported sub-R$5.00 is intact or fraying.

Economic Calendar FRIDAY, APR 24

Latin America Markets THURSDAY CLOSE / CHART DATA

The regional correction deepened Thursday as oil’s return above $100 and the Strait firing incident hit every LatAm market. Argentina’s MERVAL was the worst performer, plunging 2.31% to 2,831,849 with RSI falling to 44.34 — now in bearish territory. Colombia’s COLCAP dropped 1.37% to 2,252, RSI at 44.65 — also bearish, as the oil-producing economy faces the paradox of high crude prices but extreme operational uncertainty. Mexico’s IPC slipped 0.30% to 68,631, RSI at 49.37 — teetering at neutral. Chile’s IPSA edged down 0.09% to 10,992. The Ibovespa’s −0.78% was middle-of-the-pack, but the MACD bearish crossover makes it the most significant technical deterioration in the region. As covered in the latest market report, the frozen conflict is thawing — and the market doesn’t like what’s melting out.

Commodities & FX KEY MOVES

Oil is the story. Brent crude broke back above $100 for the first time since the ceasefire as Iranian gunboats fired on two commercial ships and Iran’s supertankers tested the blockade. WTI surged to ~$97. The Friday $82 crash is fully reversed — the Strait firing proves the “frozen conflict” was never frozen, just waiting for a catalyst. Citigroup’s $110 scenario is now the base case if the confrontation escalates further. The ceasefire is intact in name but meaningless on the water.

USD/BRL bounced back above R$5.00 to R$5.0245 (chart: O:5.0245, H:5.0245, L:5.0245, C:5.0245). RSI at 41.87 (MA: 33.47) — the extreme oversold condition is unwinding as the dollar recovers. MACD at +0.0012 (signal: −0.0558, MACD: −0.0570) — the MACD line is starting to cross above zero, suggesting the BRL’s extreme appreciation phase has ended. The eight-day streak below R$5.00 was historic; the bounce above it on Strait escalation is a reality check. Support at R$4.98; resistance at R$5.06.

Bitcoin pulled back to $77,848 (chart: O:78,269, H:78,557, L:77,471, C:77,848, −0.54%). RSI at 63.80 (MA: 61.81) — still bullish but the momentum has plateaued.

Risk Map BULL vs BEAR

Positioning BOTTOM LINE