— Soybeans rose 6.7% in February on the Chicago Board of Trade and climbed further in March as the Iran war pushed oil above $100, boosting biofuel demand
— Beef, poultry, and pork producers face margin pressure as slaughter volumes rise but exports to the Middle East are disrupted by the Strait of Hormuz closure
— BB Investimentos highlights SLC Agrícola as its top pick for the grain rally and flags Minerva Foods as having 82.2% upside potential despite sector headwinds
The Iran war is splitting Brazil’s agricultural sector in two: grain producers are riding a price surge driven by record oil prices, while meat processors face a profitability squeeze as Middle Eastern export routes close. A new report from BB Investimentos lays out the divergence, identifying clear winners and losers among Brazil agribusiness stocks. The Rio Times, the Latin American financial news outlet, examines what the conflict means for the country’s most important economic sector.
Why Grains Are Surging in Brazil Agribusiness
Soybeans climbed 6.7% on the Chicago Board of Trade in February, buoyed by expectations of increased U.S. consumption and Chinese import demand. March brought further gains after the outbreak of hostilities between the United States and Iran sent Brent crude above $100 per barrel, making soy-based biodiesel significantly more competitive against petroleum diesel.
BB Investimentos analyst Georgia Jorge notes that the correlation between oil and biofuel prices is the key transmission mechanism. As crude surges, biodiesel and ethanol become more economically attractive, which in turn lifts the feedstock commodities — soybeans and corn — that produce them. Corn closed at $4.53 per bushel on March 12 after recovering from a slight 0.3% February decline.
Meat Producers Caught in a Squeeze
The picture for protein is bleaker. Brazilian beef producers have slowed slaughter rates but maintained high export volumes, creating a domestic supply imbalance that has pushed the live cattle price down to around R$350 ($60) per arroba. For poultry and pork, the dynamic is reversed but equally painful — slaughter volumes are rising while exports decline, compressing margins in both international and domestic channels.
The Strait of Hormuz disruption is a direct threat to Brazil’s meat exporters. The Middle East absorbs more than 30% of Brazilian poultry exports, and roughly half of that volume transits the now-contested waterway. Jorge expects this margin pressure to persist through 2026, warning that the war’s impact on Brazil’s agribusiness costs will weigh on meatpacker profitability throughout the year.
Where BB Investimentos Sees Opportunity
Despite the headwinds, the bank’s March report maintains buy recommendations on three meatpackers: Minerva Foods with an 82.2% upside target to R$8, JBS with 37.4% upside to R$109, and Marfrig with 69.9% upside to R$28.60. The thesis rests on current valuations being excessively discounted relative to long-term export potential. SLC Agrícola, Brazil’s largest publicly traded grain producer, emerged as the month’s top conviction call, positioned to capture the full benefit of rising soybean and corn prices.
The broader context intensifies the stakes. Brazil’s fertilizer supply chain faces extreme risk from the Hormuz closure, with a potential deficit of 1–3 million tonnes of phosphate threatening the 2026/27 planting season. Rising input costs may erode some of the margin gains that higher grain prices deliver, creating a more complex calculus for investors than the headline commodity rally suggests.
A Sector Split That Could Deepen
The grain-versus-meat divergence reflects a structural shift, not a temporary dislocation. If the Iran conflict persists, elevated oil prices will continue to support biofuel economics and grain valuations while simultaneously raising production costs for protein processors through higher feed, fuel, and logistics expenses.
For the world’s largest food exporter, the war has created a paradox: the same crisis that lifts crop revenues is hollowing out the margins of the companies that turn those crops into protein. How long both dynamics persist depends entirely on events in the Strait of Hormuz — the narrow waterway that has become the single most consequential chokepoint for Brazil’s economy in 2026.