Three months ago, a runoff between President Lula and Flávio Bolsonaro would have been a comfortable win for the incumbent. It no longer is. A Datafolha poll published March 7 shows Lula at 46% and the 44-year-old senator at 43% in a hypothetical second round — a gap of just three points, well within the two-point margin of error. In December, that same matchup showed Lula ahead by 15 points, at 51% to 36%.
The speed of the shift is remarkable. This is the first Datafolha survey since Jair Bolsonaro — currently serving a 27-year sentence in a military police facility in Brasília — anointed his eldest son as his chosen successor. The endorsement, delivered from behind bars in December, has consolidated the right-wing vote around Flávio with startling efficiency.
The Father in Prison, the Son on the Ballot
The backstory is extraordinary by any democratic standard. Jair Bolsonaro was convicted by the Supreme Court in September 2025 for leading an attempted coup d’état — the first time a Brazilian ex-president was tried and sentenced for crimes against the democratic state. The plot included plans to assassinate President-elect Lula, Vice President Alckmin, and the Supreme Court justice overseeing the case.
Bolsonaro was initially placed under house arrest with an electronic ankle monitor. In November 2025, police found he had used a soldering iron to try to break the device at midnight while his son Flávio simultaneously called supporters to gather outside his residence. The judge ordered immediate preventive detention. Days later, the conviction became final: 27 years and three months in closed-regime prison. He is now barred from voting or holding office.
What the Numbers Actually Show
In the first-round scenario Datafolha considers most likely, Lula leads with 38% to Flávio’s 32%, followed by Paraná governor Ratinho Jr. at 7% and Minas Gerais governor Romeu Zema at 4%. Since no candidate clears 50%, a runoff would follow on October 25. In that second round, the race becomes a coin flip.
If the right-wing candidate were São Paulo governor Tarcísio de Freitas instead of Flávio, the runoff would also be a statistical tie: Lula 45%, Tarcísio 42%. Both rejection rates are strikingly high — 46% of voters say they would never vote for Lula, while 45% say the same about Flávio. Brazil’s electorate is not undecided; it is divided.
12% Spontaneous Recognition
One data point underscores Flávio’s momentum. In the unprompted version of the poll — where respondents name a candidate without being shown a list — Flávio scored 12%, an unusually high figure for a senator who had never run for executive office. It suggests the Bolsonaro brand has transferred to the next generation more effectively than many analysts predicted.
Why Lula Is Vulnerable
Lula, 80, is seeking his fourth term as president and carries the advantages of incumbency: control of the federal budget, Bolsa Família disbursements reaching 20 million families, and a recovering economy. But his approval ratings have eroded. The online gambling crisis drained household budgets. Inflation, though lower than its peak, remains a daily irritant. And the perception that his government prioritises political management over tangible results has widened his vulnerability on the right and centre.
The left reads the poll as a warning, not a verdict — there are still seven months until the first round, and Flávio has never run a national campaign. The right sees vindication: Bolsonarismo survives its leader’s imprisonment and remains the only political force in Brazil capable of matching Lula vote for vote. Both interpretations are correct, which is precisely what makes Brazil’s 2026 election the most unpredictable race in Latin America.