The Big Three

01Session Data

02Market Commentary

Bitcoin consolidated around $68,000 on Thursday after briefly testing the psychologically critical $70,000 level earlier in the session — its first approach since late January. The move faded as Nvidia’s 5.5% post-earnings selloff dragged the Nasdaq down 1.18%, reminding the market that BTC’s 60.5% 30-day correlation with the S&P 500 remains a headwind when tech falters. The Bitstamp daily close at $67,999 (+0.76%) still represents a remarkable recovery from the week’s low of $62,500 on Tuesday.

The narrative on Feb 26 centered on two competing forces. On the bullish side, spot Bitcoin ETFs posted $506.5M in net inflows on Feb 25 — the highest single day in three weeks and a decisive break from the five-week, $3.8 billion outflow streak. BlackRock’s IBIT absorbed $297.4M alone, pushing cumulative historical inflows above $61 billion. No individual ETF posted outflows for the day, a show of synchronized demand that analysts at Kronos Research called “cautious accumulation” rather than conviction buying.

On the bearish side, the broader context remains grim. Bitcoin is down approximately 46% from its October 2025 ATH of $126,272 and roughly 22% year-to-date. The February selloff — dubbed the “Great Flush” by Outlook India — saw $3.8 billion in cumulative ETF outflows, driven by the unwinding of institutional basis trades, tariff escalation, and quantum computing fears. VanEck‘s analysis noted that BTC’s Feb 5 crash registered a −6.05σ move on the rate-of-change Z-score, among the fastest single-day crashes in crypto history.

The altcoin market showed clear rotation. ETH, SOL, DOGE, ADA, and LINK outperformed BTC on the day, with Ethereum ETFs drawing $157.1M in inflows and Solana ETFs posting $30.9M — the highest since December 2025. Circle (CRCL) surged 5% and AAVE gained 5.56%, while HYPE added 5.13%. The derivatives market tells a more nuanced story: perpetual funding rates remain below neutral even as prices recover, suggesting the rally lacks leveraged conviction.

03Technical Analysis

Daily (1D):

The daily chart shows BTC consolidating just below the Ichimoku cloud, which spans the $69,616–$70,916 area. Price at $67,999 sits below the Tenkan-sen ($67,949 — nearly flat) and well below the Kijun-sen, indicating the bearish trend structure remains intact despite the recovery. The 200-day SMA at $97,646 is a staggering 43.6% above current price, underscoring how disconnected BTC is from its long-term trend. VanEck noted this represents a −2.88σ distance from the 200-DMA — a level never seen in the past 10 years.

Momentum is improving but not yet bullish. The MACD lines at −2,971 / −3,730 remain deeply negative, but the histogram has turned positive at +765 and is expanding — the clearest sign of a momentum shift since the selloff began. RSI reads 42.98 (fast) and 36.69 (slow), both recovering from deeply oversold territory but still below the neutral 50 line. A close above the Ichimoku cloud at $70,916 would be the first meaningful technical victory for bulls since January. The Bollinger Bands show price compressing between the lower band at $66,968 and the midline at $70,916, setting up a potential squeeze resolution.

04Forward Look

Friday Options Expiry.

A sizable BTC options expiry on Friday will inject volatility. If the $68,000 strike carries heavy open interest, market makers may pin price near that level, but a clean break in either direction post-expiry could accelerate the move. Traders are watching $66,500–$67,200 for re-entry and $69,500 as the chase level to avoid.

ETF Flow Sustainability Is the Key Variable.

Wednesday’s $506.5M inflow was a tactical shift, not yet a structural one. If Thursday and Friday data confirm consecutive inflow days, the narrative could flip from “cautious accumulation” to “institutional re-entry.” But if the Feb 25 print was a one-off driven by short covering, the $3.8B outflow streak resumes and price retests the $63K–$66K zone.

US PPI and Macro Data.

Friday’s US producer price index will influence Fed rate expectations. With the 10Y yield at 4.01% and falling, dovish data could compress real yields further and support risk assets including crypto. BTC’s macro sensitivity — 60.5% 30-day correlation with the S&P 500 — means equity direction continues to matter.

Indiana Crypto Rights Bill.

Indiana’s House Bill 1042 — banning discriminatory taxes on digital assets and mandating crypto options in state retirement plans by July 2027 — has passed the legislature and heads to the governor. A signing would represent the most crypto-friendly state legislation to date and could catalyze positive sentiment.

Verdict

The short squeeze has done its job — Bitcoin reclaimed $68,000 and briefly tested $70,000 — but the rally now faces its first real test: Can it hold when the squeeze mechanics exhaust? The fact that BTC consolidated near $68K through Nvidia’s 5.5% selloff rather than selling off in sympathy is a constructive sign, suggesting the market has decoupled slightly from its recent pattern of trading as a levered tech proxy.

The structural picture remains deeply impaired. BTC is 46% below its October ATH. The five-week $3.8B ETF outflow streak — driven by unwinding basis trades and institutional de-risking — erased the narrative of ETFs as a permanent bid. AUM across the US spot complex stood at $87.6 billion as of Feb 25, down from a $170 billion peak in October 2025. Perpetual funding rates remain negative, meaning shorts are still paying longs, and the Fear & Greed Index at 11 confirms that sentiment hasn’t turned — it’s merely stopped getting worse.

The bull case rests on the MACD histogram turning positive, the RSI recovering from historic oversold levels, and the ETF flow reversal. VanEck’s analysis that BTC is −2.88σ below its 200-DMA — an extreme never observed in the past decade — supports the mean-reversion thesis. But mean reversion requires a catalyst, and right now the most likely one is continued ETF inflows. Watch whether the Feb 25 print was a one-off or the start of a new accumulation phase. A daily close above the Ichimoku cloud at $70,916 would be the first technical green light.

Bias: NEUTRAL · squeeze mechanics fading · momentum improving but not confirmed · watch $70,916 cloud break and ETF flow continuity