BYMA / S&P Merval Daily Report · March 5, 2026 · Covering March 4 Session
The Big Three
Merval closes −0.66% at 2,579,970 — sixth consecutive losing session — but ADRs rally in New York as country risk compresses 39 basis points to 534. The index opened at 2,597,025 and briefly dipped to 2,545,293 intraday before recovering to close at 2,579,970. While the pesos-denominated close extended the losing streak, the real signal came from New York: Argentine ADRs advanced broadly in the afternoon session as the DXY pulled back from intraday highs of 99.32. Country risk peaked at ~594 bps intraday on March 3, then compressed over 60 basis points in two sessions to 534 bps on March 4 — a meaningful divergence from the Merval’s nominal decline in pesos.
Official dollar eases $14.50 to $1,400.50 as BCRA buys another $40 million, extending its 2026 reserve accumulation streak to $2.839 billion. After spiking to intraday highs of $1,414 on March 3, the official dollar retreated sharply to $1,400.50 on March 4 — its close on March 2 — as the BCRA’s sustained presence in the foreign exchange market absorbed demand. The dollar blue tracked the official rate lower, settling near $1,400–$1,420. The BCRA’s floor-band ceiling for March 4 was set at $1,613.03, leaving the official rate 14.1% below the intervention limit — a wide buffer that underscores the peso’s controlled stability within Argentina’s managed float regime.
Energy stocks lead intraday resilience — YPF and Vista Energy benefit directly from Brent at $81.65 — while banks and industrials bear the Iran-shock correction. Adcap Grupo Financiero noted that YPF and Vista Energy carry no relevant oil price hedges, making them direct beneficiaries of elevated Brent. YPF closed slightly positive in pesos on March 3 (+0.5%) even as the index fell −0.2%, and ADRs showed Vista +0.7% in New York. By contrast, Aluar (−5.4%), Metrogas (−4.5%), and Supervielle (−5% ADR) bore the brunt of the global risk-off. The Merval in dollars fell 1.2% on March 3 to approximately $1,750 CCL — now 18.5% below the January 28 ATH in hard currency terms.
Market Snapshot
| Metric | Value | Change / Note |
| Merval Close (ARS) | 2,579,970.37 | −0.66% |
| Session High | 2,639,736.13 | intraday |
| Session Low | 2,545,293.07 | intraday |
| Merval (USD/CCL) | ~$1,750 | −18.5% from ATH |
| USD/ARS Official (close) | $1,400.50 | −$14.50 |
| USD Blue (approx.) | ~$1,400–1,420 | lower on the day |
| Country Risk (JP Morgan) | 534 bps | −39 bps |
| BCRA FX Purchases (Mar 4) | $40M | $2,839M YTD |
| Brent Crude | $81.65 | +32% YTD |
| S&P 500 | 6,816.63 | −0.94% (Mar 3) |
| Merval ATH | 3,296,502.07 | Jan 28, 2026 |
| Distance from ATH | −21.7% | deepest in LATAM batch |
Equities — Key Movers
| Ticker | Company | Session Note | Context |
| YPFD | YPF S.A. | +0.5% (Mar 3) | Brent exposure, no hedges |
| VIST (ADR) | Vista Energy | +0.7% (ADR Mar 3) | Vaca Muerta top pick |
| PAMP | Pampa Energía | +1.0% (Mar 2) | energy + utility recovery |
| GGAL | Grupo Financiero Galicia | −2.8% (Mar 2) | banks hardest hit |
| ALUA | Aluar | −5.4% (Mar 3) | largest single-day drop |
| TRAN | Transener | +82.89% YTD | best YTD performer |
| COME | Soc. Comercial del Plata | −48.46% YTD | worst YTD performer |
Currency & Macro
The official dollar retreated $14.50 on March 4 to close at $1,400.50 — almost exactly its March 2 level — as the global risk-off impulse moderated. The dollar blue tracked lower, settling in the $1,400–1,420 range. The BCRA held the floating band ceiling at $1,613.03 for the session, maintaining the official rate 14.1% below the intervention cap. The central bank‘s sustained purchase of $40 million on March 4 extended its consecutive buying streak to over 40 sessions and brought 2026 accumulation to $2.839 billion — the structural bedrock of the Milei administration’s reserve-rebuilding effort.
Argentina’s managed-float regime — a band with a floor and ceiling that widens monthly at the pace of inflation — has functioned as intended during the Iran shock: the official rate moved a mere 1–2% over the entire crisis period, absorbing the external shock through country-risk repricing rather than currency devaluation. This stands in contrast to freely-floating EM peers. The tradeoff is that all the risk moved into sovereign spreads: country risk peaked at 594 basis points intraday on March 3, the highest reading since mid-December 2025, before compressing to 534 bps on March 4. The distance between current levels (534 bps) and the 484 bps touched in late January — the government’s threshold target for market re-entry — illustrates how much ground the Iran shock erased in six sessions.
Recaudación (tax revenue) data showed a seventh consecutive month of year-on-year decline at −9.6%, according to Adcap Grupo Financiero, pointing to stagnant domestic consumption and the impact of tax reductions on agricultural exports. This structural fiscal overhang limits the BCRA’s room to further loosen monetary conditions even as the global environment has turned more challenging.
Technical Analysis
Daily Chart (1D):
Wednesday’s session produced a narrow-range candle — open 2,597,025, high 2,639,736, low 2,545,293, close 2,579,970 — that printed below the prior session’s open, extending the sequence of lower closes from the January 28 ATH of 3,296,502. The most significant technical fact on the chart is the cluster of moving averages and Ichimoku lines visible in the 2,700,000–2,833,000 zone, which the Merval broke decisively below in late February and has failed to recapture. These now act as overhead resistance.
The MACD histogram reads −28,584,625 and, critically, both MACD lines are in deeply negative territory: −81,401,883 (MACD line) and −109,986,507 (signal line). The signal line has already crossed below zero and the MACD line has not yet caught up — indicating the trend is still in a bearish phase and has not formed a bullish crossover. RSI fast is 36.96 and RSI slow is 30.54 — both well below the 40–50 neutral zone and approaching oversold territory. However, neither RSI reading has yet breached the 30 oversold threshold decisively on a closing basis, meaning there is a small residual risk of further downside before a technical bounce materializes. The long-term ascending blue trendline visible on the chart sits near 2,453,649 — approximately 5% below current levels — and represents the last meaningful structural support before the 2,200,000 area.
The Ichimoku cloud (visible as the shaded green zone on the chart) provided support during Q4 2025 but the Merval has now fallen through it. The cloud’s lower boundary near 2,534,000–2,453,000 is now the zone where buyers would need to step in to prevent a deeper correction.
Key Levels
| Level | ARS | Reference |
| R4 — ATH | 3,296,502 | All-time high (Jan 28, 2026) |
| R3 — MA cluster / Ichimoku | 2,800,000–2,906,000 | Key moving average band (chart) |
| R2 — Session high | 2,639,736 | Mar 4 intraday high |
| R1 — Ichimoku cloud top | 2,713,912 | Chart MA line (orange, chart right) |
| ▶ CURRENT | 2,579,970 | Mar 4 close |
| S1 — Session low | 2,545,293 | Mar 4 intraday low |
| S2 — Ichimoku cloud bottom | 2,534,096–2,453,649 | Long-term trendline zone (chart) |
| S3 — Blue trendline | 2,453,649 | Ascending long-term support (blue line) |
| S4 — Major structural support | 2,200,000 | Pre-ATH consolidation zone |
Global Context
Argentina’s market is uniquely exposed to the Iran-Hormuz shock through two distinct channels. The first is the direct global risk-off channel: elevated VIX, DXY strength, and capital flight from EM assets compress Argentine ADRs and widen country risk spreads — the same force that hit Mexico, Colombia, and Brazil. The second is an oil-specific channel that actually cuts the other way: as a meaningful oil and gas producer via YPF, Vista Energy, Pampa Energía, and TGS, Argentina benefits from sustained Brent above $80. Adcap Grupo Financiero explicitly flagged this in its March 3 note, identifying YPF and Vista Energy — both unhedged — as direct beneficiaries. This explains the divergence between the Merval in pesos (slightly negative) and energy ADRs (positive) during the session.
The New York Times report on Iran-U.S. back-channel talks was the immediate catalyst for Wednesday’s country-risk compression from 573 to 534 basis points. Before the Iran shock, country risk had briefly touched 484 basis points in late January — the government’s informal threshold for a return to voluntary international debt markets. The shock pushed country risk back to 594 bps intraday on March 3, effectively delaying any plans for a sovereign bond issuance by at least several weeks. A sustained return to sub-500 bps country risk remains the single most important indicator for Argentine asset re-rating.
China’s National People’s Congress opened March 5 with a growth target announcement that will be consequential for Argentina through the soybean and agricultural commodity channel. Argentina is the world’s largest exporter of soybean meal and oil; stronger Chinese demand supports both export revenues and the BCRA’s reserve accumulation capacity. Seoul’s KOSPI suffered its worst-ever single-day decline on March 4, an indicator of the severity of the global risk-off that Argentine assets navigated with relative stability — largely due to the managed exchange rate regime absorbing the external shock.
Looking Ahead
Country Risk Trajectory:
The 534-bps close on March 4 is the key variable to watch. Sub-500 bps was the informal threshold for sovereign market re-entry and a potential catalyst for a broad Merval re-rating. The Iran shock has pushed that timeline back; if the conflict de-escalates further, a rapid compression back toward 484 bps is plausible. Conversely, if the Hormuz closure persists for more than two to three weeks, the energy inflation pass-through to Argentina’s already elevated domestic prices (~2.5% monthly CPI) would complicate the disinflation path and potentially delay the eventual cepo (exchange control) lifting.
Milei’s Legislative Agenda:
President Milei opened the 2026 congressional session on March 2 announcing ten structural reform packages across ministries, including a civil code reform, tax reform, electoral reform, education reform, and further deregulation — approximately 90 legislative initiatives for 2026. The recently passed labor reform (Ley Laboral) was cited as evidence of execution capacity. Markets will watch whether the reform pipeline can be maintained through the Iran-shock volatility, as market re-entry confidence depends partly on structural reform credibility.
Vaca Muerta and Energy Exports:
The oil shock is paradoxically beneficial for Argentina’s Vaca Muerta shale development. Vista Energy, YPF, and Pampa Energía operate in one of the world’s most competitive unconventional basins; sustained Brent above $80 validates capital allocation into the play and could accelerate the timeline for Argentina’s LNG export ambitions. The RIGI (Regime for Large Investment Incentives) has attracted significant foreign capital into energy infrastructure, and the current oil price environment only strengthens those economics.
Verdict
Argentina’s Merval is the most technically damaged index in the LATAM batch this morning. A −21.7% drawdown from the January 28 ATH, MACD lines deeply negative in both absolute and trend terms (−81.4M / −109.9M), and RSI readings approaching but not yet at oversold (36.96 / 30.54) paint a picture of a market still correcting — not yet bottoming. The sixth consecutive losing session extends a sequence that began before the Iran shock; the external event accelerated what was already a technically deteriorating picture.
Yet the intraday narrative is more constructive than the closing price implies. Country risk compressed 39 basis points, the BCRA added another $40 million in reserve purchases, the official dollar fell, and energy ADRs rallied in New York. Argentina’s managed float regime absorbed the Iran shock almost entirely through spread repricing rather than currency devaluation — a structural achievement that would have been inconceivable 24 months ago. The energy sector’s unhedged Brent exposure is a genuine positive at $81.65/bbl.
Bias: BEARISH BUT APPROACHING TECHNICAL INFLECTION — the 2,453,649 ascending trendline (blue line, chart) is the critical support to hold. A close below that level would invalidate the secular bull structure visible since mid-2025. Country risk sub-500 bps is the trigger for re-engagement; until that is achieved, the constructive macro narrative cannot overcome the bearish technical setup. Energy and oil stocks (YPF, Vista, Pampa) remain the preferred positioning within the index.
This report is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. Past performance is not indicative of future results. All data sourced from BYMA, TradingView, BCRA, Ámbito Financiero, Infobae, La Nación, El Cronista, Bloomberg Línea, Investing.com, preciopetroleo.net, and institutional research (Adcap Grupo Financiero, GMA Capital, Max Capital). Verify all figures independently before making investment decisions.