Argentina Merval Edges Up 0.25% to 2.63M as Oil Lifts Energy Stocks

01 Market Snapshot

02 Key Movers

03 Market Commentary

Monday’s session on BYMA was a story of oil trumping geopolitical fear. The S&P Merval opened at 2,626,114.83, dipped to an intraday low of 2,601,724.81 (−0.6%) as global markets cratered on the Iran escalation, then staged a grinding recovery to close at 2,632,795.13 (+0.25%). The reversal was driven entirely by energy names benefiting from the oil price spike, while banking and industrial stocks acted as a drag.

The intraday volatility was extreme. La Nación reported that “while the world’s main stock exchanges sank on Monday, the S&P Merval managed to detach from the trend and close with a marginal 0.3% gain, driven by energy companies.” The dichotomy within the index was sharp: Cresud (+2.5%), TGN (+2.2%), IRSA (+2.1%), and Transener (+2.1%) rallied, while Ternium (−2.3%), Banco Macro (−2.3%), Central Puerto (−1.9%), and Edenor (−1.6%) dragged. On Wall Street, Argentine ADRs were mixed: Bioceres fell 5.4% and Globant 4%, while Cresud rose 2.7% and YPF gained 0.6%.

The prior Friday had already showcased this energy-vs-everything dynamic. The Merval surged 2.2% in pesos to 2,626,114 as YPF jumped 5.1% and Aluar soared 6.6%, even as sovereign bonds fell 0.9% on average and country risk rose 31 bps to 575. The index is now 13.6% below its January 28 ATH of 3,296,502 and down 13.9% over the past month, reflecting the sharp correction from record highs that began in late January.

04 Currency

The Argentine peso showed remarkable stability on the official market despite the global turmoil. The official rate closed at ARS 1,435 per dollar (unchanged from Friday), while the wholesale rate held at 1,416 per the BCRA intervention. The blue dollar edged up ARS 10 to 1,425, while the MEP closed at 1,433.39 and the contado con liquidación (CCL) at 1,477.13, maintaining the CCL/official gap at a narrow ~3%.

The BCRA continued its managed crawling peg, absorbing $40 million on Friday alone to maintain equilibrium. Year-to-date, the central bank has accumulated $3.005 billion in dollar purchases, approaching its IMF target. Nicolás Merino of ABC Mercado de Cambios described the session as “stable and balanced,” with the dollar “advancing gradually, always contained by supply.” The narrow gap between official and parallel rates is a key marker of Milei-era macro stability, though the Iran shock tested it more aggressively than anything since the September 2025 crisis.

05 Technical Analysis

Daily (1D):

Monday’s candle (O: 2,626,114.83, H: 2,651,368.87, L: 2,601,724.81, C: 2,632,795.13) produced a small-bodied doji-like candle with a lower wick extending to 2,601,725 and an upper wick to 2,651,369. The close above the open (+0.25%) represents a marginal bullish bias, but the narrow body relative to the range indicates indecision. Price is consolidating just below the cluster of declining moving averages at 2,645,126–2,672,570.

The MACD is deeply bearish: MACD line at −12,771.99, signal at −96,088.91, and histogram at −108,860.90. All three components are well below zero, confirming strong intermediate-term bearish momentum. The histogram has been contracting marginally from its deepest negative readings, but no bullish crossover is remotely in sight. This is the most bearish MACD configuration among our four Latin American markets.

The RSI reads 36.35 (fast) and 35.73 (slow), both approaching the 30 oversold threshold. The convergence of the two RSI lines at similar levels confirms the downtrend has been persistent and orderly rather than panic-driven. The 200-day SMA sits far below at approximately 2,458,369–2,475,984, providing long-term trend support some 6.0–6.6% below the current close. A break below 2,458,000 would signal a shift from correction to potential trend reversal.

06 Forward Look

Vaca Muerta — Argentina’s Geopolitical Windfall:

Of the four Latin American markets we cover, Argentina is the most direct beneficiary of the Iran-driven oil shock. Vaca Muerta’s shale breakeven of ~$40–50/bbl means that with Brent at $100+, every barrel exported generates extraordinary margins. GMA Capital highlighted two channels of benefit: improved terms of trade for oil and gas exports, and reinforcement of Argentina’s strategic importance as a non-OPEC supply source. YPF, Vista, and the pipeline companies (TGN, Transportadora Gas del Sur) are the direct equity beneficiaries. If oil sustains above $90, Vaca Muerta capex commitments could accelerate, creating a positive multiplier for the broader economy.

Country Risk — The Vulnerability:

The jump to 588 bps from the 550–575 range of the prior week is a warning. IEB noted that country risk had been “ranging between 550 and 575 points amid elevated international uncertainty,” and the break above this band signals that global risk aversion is beginning to overwhelm Argentina’s domestic reform story. If country risk breaks above 600, it would challenge the narrative that Milei-era reforms have durably reduced country risk. The September 2025 peak of 1,456 provides context for how far spreads could widen in a true crisis.

INDEC Inflation — Wednesday Catalyst:

February CPI is estimated at 2.7% monthly. If confirmed, this would represent continued progress in disinflation from the 25.5% monthly peak of December 2023, but it remains above the BCRA’s implicit monthly target of sub-2%. With oil prices now threatening to push fuel costs higher, the March reading could reverse the disinflation trend. Any print above 3% would pressure the peso and bonds.

BCRA Reserves & IMF Targets:

The central bank’s $3.005 billion in YTD dollar purchases is approaching its IMF target, but the pace of accumulation could slow if global risk aversion intensifies and dollar demand picks up domestically. The BCRA’s active intervention — selling dollar-linked bonds while buying spot dollars — has maintained the narrow official/blue gap (~0.7%) and official/CCL gap (~3%), but this mechanism depends on continued capital inflows and market confidence. The Iran crisis is the first serious external stress test for the Milei-era FX framework.

Verdict

The Merval’s +0.25% close was a respectable showing given the global carnage, with energy stocks (YPF, Cresud, TGN) keeping the index in the green while banking names (Banco Macro, Edenor) dragged. The two-track market — energy up, everything else down — mirrors Argentina’s unique position as a net oil exporter via Vaca Muerta. However, the 16 bps jump in country risk to 588, the 0.9% decline in sovereign bonds, and the CCL at 1,477 signal that the bond market is not sharing the equity market’s relative calm.

Technically, the Merval is in deep correction territory: down 13.6% from the January ATH, with the MACD histogram at −108,861 (the worst reading among our four markets) and both RSI lines near 36 approaching oversold. The 200-day SMA at 2,458,369 (6.6% below) is the critical long-term support. A break below it would shift the larger trend from bullish to neutral.

Bias: NEUTRAL — the Vaca Muerta oil windfall and manageable FX gaps offset the deteriorating technical picture, rising country risk, and sovereign bond weakness. A sustained break above 2,672,570 (R1) with country risk back below 575 shifts bias to Cautiously Bullish. A break below 2,475,984 (S1) or country risk above 650 shifts bias to Bearish.

Disclaimer: This report is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. All data sourced from BYMA, TradingView, La Nación, Infobae, Ámbito Financiero, Rava Bursátil, Trading Economics, GMA Capital, IEB, BCRA, and other public sources. Verify all figures independently before making investment decisions.

Read More from The Rio Times

• Latin American Pulse for Tuesday, March 10, 2026
• Colombia’s Richest Man Bets $107M on Argentina’s Oil
• Latin America’s Governments Are Censoring the Internet