Daily Edition · Thursday, February 26, 2026
Covering Feb 25–26
What matters today
1 South Africa’s Budget 2026 delivered: debt stabilises at 78.9% of GDP, R20B in planned tax hikes withdrawn, first credit upgrade in 16 years locked in — rand firms below 16/$
2 Zimbabwe imposes immediate ban on ALL raw mineral and lithium concentrate exports, including cargo in transit — Chinese miners frozen out; EV supply chain disrupted
3 DRC army drone strike kills M23 spokesperson Willy Ngoma near Rubaya coltan hub (15% of global supply); ceasefire unravelling
4 RSF rampages through Misteriha in North Darfur — 28 killed, 39 wounded; Chad closes eastern border; UN genocide report debated in Geneva today
5 Vatican announces Pope Leo XIV’s first Africa tour: Algeria, Cameroon, Angola, Equatorial Guinea — April 13–23; first-ever papal visit to Algeria
01
Market Snapshot
Market Snapshot
| Pair / Index | Level | Day Chg | Signal |
|---|---|---|---|
| USD/ZAR | 15.99 | -0.4% | ▲ Rand firms on budget; near June 2022 highs |
| USD/NGN | ~1,530 | Flat | ▶ CBN window stable; parallel market ~1,545 |
| USD/KES | ~128.5 | Flat | ▶ Remittance flows steady |
| USD/EGP | ~49.8 | Flat | ▶ CBE holds; Suez fees steady |
| JSE All Share | ~120,300 | -0.5% | ▼ Mining drag on budget day; off ATH 126,952 |
| NGX ASI | ~105,600 | +0.3% | ▲ Banking sector bid |
| Brent Crude | ~$71.10/bbl | +0.8% | ▲ Iran tensions; US-Iran talks fragile |
| Gold | ~$5,200/oz | +0.4% | ▲ Safe-haven bid; dollar soft; near ATH |
| Copper | ~$9,450/t | -0.5% | ▼ China demand concerns; profit-taking |
| Cobalt | ~$24,800/t | +1.2% | ▲ DRC supply risk on Rubaya fighting |
| Cocoa | ~$8,100/t | -1.5% | ▼ Surplus forecast; Ghana/Côte d’Ivoire weakness |
02
Conflict & Stability Tracker
Conflict & Stability Tracker
Critical
Sudan — Darfur / Kordofan
RSF rampages through Misteriha (N. Darfur), 28 killed, 39 wounded incl. 10 women; health centre destroyed; town is stronghold of tribal leader Musa Hilal; Chad closes eastern border after 5 soldiers killed in cross-border fighting; UN FFM genocide report debated in Geneva today (Feb 26); Sudan rejects US 5-point peace plan; 6,000+ killed in el-Fasher Oct 25–27
Escalating
DRC — Eastern Congo
FARDC drone strike kills M23 spokesperson Lt-Col Willy Ngoma near Rubaya (3am Tue); EU/US-sanctioned figure; Rubaya produces ~15% of global coltan; DRC adding site to US minerals cooperation shortlist; heavy fighting since Sunday; Uvira border with Burundi reopened Mon; MONUSCO assessment team deployed to Uvira for Doha ceasefire verification
Tense
Ethiopia — Tigray / Amhara
TDF launched coordinated operations to retake disputed territories along Tigray-Amhara border in late Jan; ENDF drone strikes in central Tigray; Abiy’s Red Sea access demands fuelling tensions with Eritrea; Bloomberg: Horn of Africa tensions rising
Watching
Sahel — Niger / Burkina Faso
ISSP expanding reach to urban areas; Niamey airport attack first drone use by ISSP in Niger; attack on National Guard camp in Ayorou; junta security apparatus under sustained pressure
03
Fast Take
Fast Take
Defence
DRC drone capabilities now proven against high-value targets — Ngoma’s killing at Rubaya reshapes the tactical balance and signals Kinshasa can reach senior M23 leadership in contested mineral zones.
DRC drone capabilities now proven against high-value targets — Ngoma’s killing at Rubaya reshapes the tactical balance and signals Kinshasa can reach senior M23 leadership in contested mineral zones.
Business
Zimbabwe’s raw mineral export ban accelerates the beneficiation timeline by a year and freezes Chinese lithium supply chains overnight — Huayou’s $400M sulphate plant and Sinomine’s $500M Bikita investment now test cases for compliance.
Zimbabwe’s raw mineral export ban accelerates the beneficiation timeline by a year and freezes Chinese lithium supply chains overnight — Huayou’s $400M sulphate plant and Sinomine’s $500M Bikita investment now test cases for compliance.
Markets
South Africa’s budget triggers a fiscal credibility rally: debt peaked, deficit narrowing, R20B in tax hikes withdrawn, first sovereign upgrade in 16 years — rand pushes through 16/$ floor.
South Africa’s budget triggers a fiscal credibility rally: debt peaked, deficit narrowing, R20B in tax hikes withdrawn, first sovereign upgrade in 16 years — rand pushes through 16/$ floor.
Politics
Pope Leo XIV’s 11-day Africa tour — first-ever papal visit to Algeria, plus Cameroon (Anglophone crisis zone), Angola, and Equatorial Guinea — will test Vatican soft power across Catholic-Muslim and conflict fault lines.
Pope Leo XIV’s 11-day Africa tour — first-ever papal visit to Algeria, plus Cameroon (Anglophone crisis zone), Angola, and Equatorial Guinea — will test Vatican soft power across Catholic-Muslim and conflict fault lines.
04
Developments to Watch
Developments to Watch
1. South Africa Budget 2026 — “Turning Point”SOUTHERN AFRICA
What happened: Finance Minister Godongwana delivered Budget 2026. Gross debt stabilises at 78.9% of GDP in 2025/26, falling to 76.5% by 2028/29. Consolidated deficit narrows from 4.5% to 3.1% over MTEF. Main budget primary surplus reaches 0.9% of GDP, rising to 2.3% by 2028/29. R20B in provisionally announced tax hikes withdrawn after R21.3B revenue overperformance. PIT brackets and medical credits adjusted for inflation. VAT registration threshold raised from R1M to R2.3M. R2.7B added for defence over medium term; R990M for Border Management Authority; R1B each for police and SANDF via CARA fund. Global minimum tax rules to be implemented in 2026/27.
So what: This is the budget that proves the fiscal consolidation strategy is working. Debt peaked and is declining, the deficit trajectory is the best in years, and Godongwana had the room to withdraw planned tax hikes — a politically powerful signal. Markets will read this as further justification for the credit upgrade trajectory (first in 16 years already secured). The rand’s push below 16/$ reflects real money flowing in. The defence allocation signals seriousness about the SONA security commitments.
2. Zimbabwe Bans All Raw Mineral ExportsSOUTHERN AFRICA
What happened: Mines Minister Polite Kambamura announced an immediate suspension of all raw mineral and lithium concentrate exports, effective Wednesday, including minerals currently in transit. The ban was communicated to the Chamber of Mines via a letter dated Feb 17 citing “continued malpractices during the exportation of minerals.” Only mining companies with valid titles and approved beneficiation plants may export. Third-party traders and agents are barred. Zimbabwe exported 1.128M tonnes of lithium-bearing spodumene concentrate in 2025 (+11% YoY), mostly to China. Major investors affected: Zhejiang Huayou Cobalt ($400M sulphate plant), Sinomine ($500M Bikita plant), Chengxin Lithium Group, and Yahua.
So what: This pulls the beneficiation deadline forward by a year from 2027 and sends a shockwave through global lithium supply chains. Zimbabwe is Africa’s largest lithium producer and a critical node in China’s EV battery pipeline. The immediate freeze on in-transit cargo is unusually aggressive and suggests Harare believes the leakage problem is systemic. Chinese firms that invested hundreds of millions in processing plants are now the only ones with a pathway to export — ironically rewarding those who built local capacity while punishing those who did not. The broader signal for African resource nationalism is unmistakable.
3. M23 Spokesperson Killed in DRC Drone StrikeCENTRAL AFRICA
What happened: FARDC drone strike killed M23 military spokesperson Lt-Col Willy Ngoma near Rubaya, North Kivu, at ~3am Tuesday. Rubaya is a strategic coltan-mining hub producing ~15% of global supply. Ngoma was under EU sanctions (Dec 2022) and US designation (2023) for human rights abuses. DRC recently added Rubaya to a shortlist of mining assets offered to the US under a minerals cooperation framework. Heavy fighting near Rubaya since Sunday forced hundreds to flee. DRC reopened its border with Burundi at Uvira on Monday. MONUSCO deployed a joint assessment team to Uvira to support Doha ceasefire monitoring.
So what: This is the highest-profile M23 kill since the conflict reignited. It demonstrates that DRC’s drone capability can reach senior rebel leadership in contested zones. The targeting of a sanctioned figure near a strategic mineral site that is simultaneously being offered to Washington under a bilateral deal reveals the convergence of military operations, diplomacy, and minerals geopolitics. The ceasefire is effectively dead in practice even as MONUSCO tries to implement the Doha verification mechanism. Coltan and cobalt supply risk is real and rising.
4. RSF Rampages Misteriha; Chad Closes BorderEAST AFRICA
What happened: RSF tore through Misteriha in North Darfur on Monday, killing at least 28 and wounding 39 including 10 women. The town is the stronghold of Arab tribal leader Musa Hilal. The area’s only health centre was destroyed and a healthcare worker detained. Emergency Lawyers reported RSF torched many houses. The seizure would consolidate RSF control of Darfur. Separately, Chad closed its eastern border with Sudan after cross-border fighting killed 5 Chadian soldiers and 3 civilians at the border town of Tina. The UN Human Rights Council convenes in Geneva today to discuss the FFM genocide report on el-Fasher. Sudan’s foreign ministry rejected the US 5-point peace plan presented to the UNSC on Feb 19.
So what: The Misteriha attack signals the RSF is now turning on its own tribal base — Hilal is Rizeigat Arab, the same tribe as most RSF fighters. This intra-tribal violence complicates the Darfur power map further. Chad’s border closure cuts a critical humanitarian corridor at a moment when 6.5M Somalis and 25M+ Sudanese face acute hunger. The convergence of the Geneva HRC session, the rejected US peace plan, and escalating ground operations suggests the international community is running out of diplomatic options.
5. Pope Leo XIV Announces First Africa TourCONTINENT-WIDE
What happened: Vatican announced Pope Leo XIV will undertake an 11-day apostolic journey to four African countries from April 13–23: Algeria (Algiers, Annaba) Apr 13–15; Cameroon (Yaoundé, Bamenda, Douala) Apr 15–18; Angola (Luanda, Muxima, Saurimo) Apr 18–21; Equatorial Guinea (Malabo, Mongomo, Bata) Apr 21–23. This is the first papal visit to Algeria in history. Leo, the first US-born pope, was elected May 2025. About 20% of the world’s Catholics live in Africa; global Catholic population grew by 15M+ in 2022–23, more than half in Africa.
So what: The itinerary is strategically loaded. Algeria is a Muslim-majority nation where the visit signals interfaith dialogue. Bamenda is in Cameroon’s Anglophone region, where a civil war has raged for a decade. Angola and Equatorial Guinea are oil-rich states with complex governance records. The trip so early in Leo’s pontificate underscores Africa’s centrality to the global Catholic Church — the continent produces more trainee priests than any other but remains underrepresented in senior leadership.
6. Ramaphosa Thanks Putin for SA Mercenary RepatriationSOUTHERN AFRICA
What happened: SA presidency confirmed 15 of 17 South Africans tricked into fighting for Russia in Ukraine are returning home: 4 arrived last week, 11 expected soon, 2 remain in Russia (1 hospitalised, 1 processing). Ramaphosa expressed “heartfelt gratitude” to Putin following a Feb 10 phone call. Duduzile Zuma-Sambudla, daughter of ex-President Zuma, was named as the alleged recruiter and forced to resign as MP in November. She denies the allegations. Investigations into the recruitment networks are ongoing.
So what: The diplomatic resolution demonstrates Pretoria’s ability to extract concessions from Moscow while maintaining its non-aligned posture. The Zuma-Sambudla connection implicates the MK party’s Russia links at a sensitive political moment. The broader revelation — 1,000+ Kenyans, Zimbabweans, and South Africans recruited to fight — points to a systematic African mercenary pipeline that governments are only now beginning to confront.
05
Sovereign & Credit Pulse
Sovereign & Credit Pulse
| Country | Event | Assessment |
|---|---|---|
| South Africa | Budget 2026: debt peaks 78.9% GDP; deficit to 3.1% by 2028/29; R20B tax hikes withdrawn; first upgrade in 16 years | ▲ Positive — fiscal credibility rally; further upgrade trajectory intact |
| Zimbabwe | Immediate ban on all raw mineral/lithium exports; in-transit cargo frozen; mining 14.3% of GDP | ▼ Negative — investor confidence shock; revenue disruption risk |
| DRC | M23 senior kill; Rubaya fighting; US minerals deal pending; Uvira border reopened | ▶ Mixed — military success but ceasefire collapsing; cobalt supply risk |
| Somalia | 6.5M face crisis-level food insecurity by end-March; drought + conflict + aid cuts | ▼ Negative — humanitarian emergency deepening |
06
Power Players
Power Players
| Name | Role | Action |
|---|---|---|
| Enoch Godongwana | SA Finance Minister | Delivered Budget 2026; withdrew R20B in tax hikes; debt stabilised; primary surplus widening |
| Polite Kambamura | Zimbabwe Mines Minister | Announced immediate ban on all raw mineral and lithium exports; froze in-transit cargo |
| Pope Leo XIV | Head of Catholic Church | Announced 11-day Africa tour (Apr 13–23) to Algeria, Cameroon, Angola, Equatorial Guinea |
| Cyril Ramaphosa | SA President | Thanked Putin for repatriation of 17 SA citizens lured into Russia-Ukraine war; investigation ongoing into recruitment networks |
07
Regulatory & Policy Watch
Regulatory & Policy Watch
| Jurisdiction | Measure | Status / Impact |
|---|---|---|
| Zimbabwe | Immediate ban on raw mineral and lithium concentrate exports; agents and third-party traders barred | In force — until further notice; includes in-transit cargo; affects all mineral categories |
| South Africa | Budget 2026: VAT threshold to R2.3M; PIT brackets inflation-adjusted; global minimum tax from 2026/27; R990M for BMA | Tabled — Appropriation Bill and Division of Revenue Bill to follow |
| US–Africa | AGOA extended only to Dec 31, 2026 (shortest in programme history); 30% reciprocal tariffs still apply to most African goods | Active — USTR demands reciprocity; SA faces “different treatment” threat; 450K US jobs linked |
08
Calendar & Watchlist
Calendar & Watchlist
| Date | Event | Significance |
|---|---|---|
| Feb 26 | UN HRC Geneva — Sudan FFM genocide report debate | Potential for new sanctions; RSF accountability push; ICC jurisdiction expansion pressure |
| Feb 26 | SA Budget post-speech parliamentary process begins | Appropriation Bill and Division of Revenue Bill tabled; committee deliberations follow |
| Mar 2 | IAEA Board of Governors | Iran nuclear compliance review; Brent price risk for African oil importers |
| Apr 13–23 | Pope Leo XIV Africa tour (Algeria → Cameroon → Angola → Equatorial Guinea) | First-ever papal visit to Algeria; Bamenda Anglophone crisis zone; Catholic-Muslim dialogue |
| Dec 31 | AGOA expiry deadline | Shortest extension in programme history; 450K US jobs and 1M+ African jobs at stake |
09
Bottom Line
Bottom Line
Today’s Africa story splits cleanly into two narratives, and they are happening simultaneously.The first is a fiscal credibility story. South Africa’s budget confirms what the first credit upgrade in 16 years signalled: the adults are in charge of the Treasury. Debt has peaked. The deficit is narrowing at a pace that exceeds forecasts. And Godongwana had enough fiscal room to withdraw R20 billion in planned tax hikes — a move that is both economically sound and politically shrewd ahead of the 2029 cycle. The rand’s push below 16 per dollar is not a one-day reaction; it reflects a structural repricing of South African risk that began with the GNU formation, accelerated through the FATF grey list removal, and now has a credible fiscal anchor. For allocators, the question is whether to wait for the next Moody’s or S&P review or to price in the upgrade now.
The second narrative is resource sovereignty. Zimbabwe’s blanket ban on raw mineral exports — effective immediately, including cargo already on ships — is the most aggressive beneficiation move any African government has made since the DRC’s cobalt royalty hikes. It freezes Chinese lithium supply chains overnight and forces a binary choice on mining houses: build the processing plant or lose access to Africa’s largest lithium reserves. The DRC is playing its own version of the same game, adding Rubaya’s coltan to the mineral package being offered to Washington even as its drones strike the rebel force that controls the mine. The message from both Harare and Kinshasa is identical: Africa’s minerals are no longer available on extraction-only terms.
The violence in Sudan and eastern Congo is the dark undertow beneath both narratives. The RSF’s attack on Misteriha — against a tribal leader from its own base — suggests the paramilitaries are now fighting everyone, including their own allies. Chad’s border closure cuts a humanitarian lifeline at the moment 6.5 million Somalis and 25 million Sudanese need it most. And the killing of M23’s Willy Ngoma, while a tactical win for Kinshasa, removes a diplomatic interlocutor at a moment when the ceasefire needs interlocutors, not drone strikes. The thread connecting Pretoria, Harare, Rubaya, and Geneva is that African sovereignty — over budgets, minerals, borders, and citizens recruited to fight foreign wars — is being asserted with greater force in 2026 than at any point in the past decade. Whether the institutional architecture exists to absorb these assertions without breaking is the question that will define the rest of the year.