What Matters Today
1
Tanzania Seals Strategic Minerals Deal — Government Captures More Value from Critical Mineral Extraction
Tanzania Seals Strategic Minerals Deal — Government Captures More Value from Critical Mineral Extraction
Tanzania signed a strategic minerals agreement this week that restructures the terms of critical mineral extraction in the country’s favour. This Africa intelligence brief tracks a deal that reflects a continent-wide push to capture more value from mining before commodities leave African soil.
Tanzania’s mining ambitions sit alongside an infrastructure transformation: electricity has now reached all 12,318 villages on the mainland, raising access to 85.5%. Power generation capacity stands at 4,437 megawatts and is projected to reach 8,000 MW by 2030 — a doubling that would make Tanzania one of the best-electrified East African economies and a more attractive destination for mineral processing.
The deal comes as DRC, Zimbabwe, and Namibia have all moved to renegotiate mineral extraction terms in the past 18 months. The pattern is clear: African governments are demanding higher royalties, processing mandates, and equity stakes from foreign miners — using the energy transition’s demand for lithium, cobalt, nickel, and rare earths as leverage that previous commodity cycles never provided.
For Latin American mineral producers, Tanzania’s deal is the latest data point in a global renegotiation. Chile, Peru, and Argentina face the same question: how to capture more value from critical minerals without deterring the investment needed to extract them. Africa’s approach — government-mandated local processing backed by accelerating electrification — offers a template that Latin American policymakers are studying closely.
2
Vodacom Eyes 55% Safaricom Stake — Data Sovereignty Fears Rise in Kenya as Africa’s Most Valuable Telco Faces Foreign Takeover
Vodacom Eyes 55% Safaricom Stake — Data Sovereignty Fears Rise in Kenya as Africa’s Most Valuable Telco Faces Foreign Takeover
Vodacom is pursuing a 55% stake in Safaricom, Kenya’s most valuable listed company and the operator of M-Pesa — Africa’s largest mobile money platform processing billions of dollars in transactions annually. The potential deal raises acute data sovereignty concerns in a country that is simultaneously positioning itself as East Africa’s financial hub.
The timing creates a direct policy contradiction. Kenya is courting 50+ crypto firms through the NIFC with promises of regulatory sovereignty and digital independence. Simultaneously, it may allow majority foreign ownership of the platform that handles more financial transactions than any bank in East Africa. The Capital Markets Authority and Central Bank of Kenya face the question of whether M-Pesa’s transaction data — a strategic national asset — should be controlled from Johannesburg.
The deal follows Namibia’s rejection of Starlink over ownership and compliance criteria, and Uganda’s Starlink shutdown ahead of elections. A continent-wide debate over foreign control of digital infrastructure is intensifying, and Safaricom is the highest-stakes test case.
Vodacom’s parent, Vodafone, already holds a significant Safaricom position through its existing shareholding. A 55% stake would give the South African telco effective control, potentially reshaping the competitive dynamics across East African telecoms, mobile money, and the nascent crypto licensing framework that Nairobi is building around the NIFC. As covered in our previous Africa intelligence brief, Kenya’s financial centre ambitions require sovereign control over the infrastructure they depend on.
3
Liberia Border Crisis — Guinea Deploys Troops on Liberian Soil, President Boakai Seeks French Intervention
Liberia Border Crisis — Guinea Deploys Troops on Liberian Soil, President Boakai Seeks French Intervention
Liberian President Joseph Boakai has sought France’s intervention after Guinean troops and customs officers deployed on Liberian territory. Former combatants have issued a one-week ultimatum to Guinean forces to withdraw, raising the spectre of renewed border violence in a region still recovering from decades of civil conflict.
The incursion adds a second West African security front alongside the Sahel jihadist expansion that prompted Ghana’s defence pact with the EU this week. Guinea, under military junta leader Mamady Doumbouya since the 2021 coup, has shown no indication of returning to civilian rule and is increasingly assertive along its borders. The deployment tests whether regional organisations — ECOWAS, the Mano River Union — retain any conflict-resolution capacity.
France’s involvement is sought because of its historical military presence in the region and its role as Guinea’s former colonial power. But Paris’s ability to respond is constrained by its own political paralysis and the retrenchment of French military assets from the Sahel, where Mali, Burkina Faso, and Niger expelled French forces in favour of Russian Africa Corps partnerships.
The Liberia-Guinea border crisis is a reminder that West African security is fragmenting along multiple axes simultaneously: jihadist expansion southward, junta-driven border assertiveness, and the withdrawal of traditional security guarantors. Liberia’s diamond sector is already under global scrutiny, and instability along its borders threatens the mining and agricultural investment that the country’s post-conflict recovery depends on.
4
Uganda: Bobi Wine Appeals to Elon Musk After Starlink Shutdown Ahead of Elections — Digital Access as Political Weapon
Uganda: Bobi Wine Appeals to Elon Musk After Starlink Shutdown Ahead of Elections — Digital Access as Political Weapon
Ugandan opposition leader Robert Kyagulanyi (Bobi Wine) has appealed directly to Elon Musk after Starlink satellite internet services were shut down in Uganda ahead of elections. The shutdown connects two of Africa’s defining 2026 stories: the digital sovereignty debate sparked by Namibia’s Starlink rejection and the use of internet controls as instruments of political repression.
Uganda under President Yoweri Museveni — who has governed for four decades and is seeking to extend his tenure further — has a history of internet shutdowns during politically sensitive periods. The 2021 election saw a complete internet blackout. The Starlink shutdown is more targeted: cutting off the satellite service that bypasses government-controlled terrestrial infrastructure.
Wine’s appeal to Musk frames the issue as a free speech and connectivity question. But the operational reality is that Starlink cannot operate in a country without government cooperation on spectrum allocation and regulatory approval — the same requirements that Namibia cited when rejecting the service. The difference is that Namibia rejected Starlink for sovereignty reasons; Uganda appears to have shut it down for political control.
The contrast between Namibia, Uganda, and Kenya defines the spectrum of African responses to global tech platforms: Namibia demands compliance; Uganda uses access as a political lever; Kenya courts the platforms with tax incentives. Each approach shapes the digital infrastructure that will determine how the continent’s next billion internet users connect.
5
Palantir Co-Founder Backs Nigerian Startup Terra in $11.8m Round — Silicon Valley Continues Betting on Nigeria Despite Macro Volatility
Palantir Co-Founder Backs Nigerian Startup Terra in $11.8m Round — Silicon Valley Continues Betting on Nigeria Despite Macro Volatility
A Palantir co-founder has invested in Nigerian technology startup Terra’s $11.8 million funding round, the latest signal that Silicon Valley maintains conviction in Nigeria’s tech ecosystem despite the macro volatility of currency swings, inflation at 20%, and the banking recapitalisation deadline five days away.
The Terra investment follows Littlefish’s $9.5 million Series A (led by Partech, backed by Standard Bank, FNB, and Absa) announced Tuesday, and the 50+ crypto firms in discussions with Kenya’s NIFC. African tech fundraising is bifurcating: fintech infrastructure attracting institutional capital, while consumer-facing startups face a funding drought that has persisted since the 2022-23 venture capital correction.
The Palantir connection is notable. The co-founder’s investment brings Silicon Valley’s data analytics and defence technology network into Nigeria’s startup ecosystem — a relationship that could facilitate US government and enterprise contracts for Nigerian tech firms.
Nigeria’s tech sector is maturing against a backdrop of structural transformation: the banking recapitalisation has raised ₦4.61 trillion (~$3.35 billion) with 30 of 33 banks compliant, Dangote is exporting refined fuel, and Tinubu’s UK state visit is positioning Nigeria as an economic peer. As noted in our Global Economy Briefing, the distinction between countries that attract institutional capital and those that don’t is becoming the defining line of emerging market investment in 2026.
Market Snapshot
| INSTRUMENT | LEVEL | MOVE | NOTE |
| USD/ZAR | R17.03 (~$0.59) | ▼ -0.4% (rand weaker) | SARB decision today 15:00 SAST; hold expected; Apr fuel/Eskom shock 6 days away |
| SARB Repo | 6.75% | Decision today | 21/28 economists: hold; 4-2 split Jan; CPI 3.0% but Apr spike imminent |
| JSE All Share | ~72,500 | ▼ -0.3% | Pre-SARB caution; Eskom tariff Apr 1; fuel levies compounding |
| USD/NGN | ₦1,375 (~$0.73) | ▲ naira firmer | ₦4.61T (~$3.35bn) recap raised; 30/33 banks compliant; Terra $11.8m; Dangote exports |
| NSE 20 (Kenya) | ~1,920 | ▼ -0.5% | Vodacom-Safaricom stake concerns; data sovereignty debate; floods death toll 88 |
| Brent Crude | ~$98 | Holding below $100 | Ceasefire hopes; Trump deadline Sat; Iran “non-hostile” transit; underlying risks persist |
| Copper | ~$5.55/lb | ▲ +0.8% | Tanzania minerals deal; DRC production steady; energy transition demand structural |
| Safaricom (SCOM) | KSh 38.5 (~$0.30) | ▼ -2.1% | Vodacom 55% stake report weighs; data sovereignty uncertainty |
| Gold | ~$4,630/oz | ▼ -0.5% | Rate-hike expectations; SA gold miners margin pressure from energy costs |
| Tanzania Shilling | TSh 2,580 (~$0.39) | ▲ stable | Strategic minerals deal boost; 85.5% electrification; 4,437 MW capacity |
Conflict & Stability Tracker
Critical
Guinea-Liberia Border Escalation
Guinean troops and customs officers deployed on Liberian territory represents a sovereignty violation by a military junta with no democratic mandate. Former combatants’ one-week ultimatum to withdraw creates a countdown to potential armed confrontation. France’s ability to mediate is constrained by its Sahel retrenchment. ECOWAS’s response will test whether the bloc retains any authority after losing Mali, Burkina Faso, and Niger.
Critical
Uganda Digital Repression — Starlink as Political Weapon
Shutting down Starlink ahead of elections is the most direct use of satellite internet control for political purposes on the continent. Museveni’s government has form: complete internet blackouts in 2021. Wine’s appeal to Musk forces SpaceX to choose between commercial interests (maintaining government relations) and its stated mission of global connectivity. The outcome sets a precedent for every authoritarian government with Starlink ambitions.
Tense
Safaricom Ownership — M-Pesa Data at Stake
If Vodacom secures 55% of Safaricom, majority control of M-Pesa — which processes more transactions than any East African bank — passes to a Johannesburg-headquartered company. Kenya’s crypto hub ambitions, NIFC licensing framework, and digital finance ecosystem all depend on sovereign control of financial data infrastructure. Approving the deal while rejecting foreign digital ownership in other contexts creates a regulatory contradiction Kenya’s government cannot easily explain.
Watching
Africa’s Critical Minerals Renegotiation Wave
Tanzania joins DRC, Zimbabwe, Namibia, and Nigeria (shea nut export ban) in demanding more value from resource extraction. The pattern is structural, not cyclical: the energy transition gives African governments leverage over lithium, cobalt, nickel, and rare earths that oil never provided. Every deal signed in 2026 resets the baseline for future negotiations — and Latin American mineral producers are watching the terms closely.
Fast Take
Mining
Tanzania’s minerals deal is the latest proof that Africa has learned the most important lesson of the energy transition: if the world needs your rocks, you set the price. DRC did it with cobalt. Zimbabwe with lithium. Namibia with ownership rules. Now Tanzania. The leverage comes from a simple fact — you can’t electrify the world without African minerals, and every government on the continent knows it. The question isn’t whether Africa captures more value; it’s how much more, and how fast.
Telco
Kenya can’t be Africa’s digital finance hub while letting its most important digital platform be majority foreign-owned. M-Pesa isn’t just a telco product — it’s the financial infrastructure that 30+ million Kenyans depend on daily. Giving Vodacom 55% control while simultaneously courting Binance for crypto licensing creates a sovereignty contradiction. Either Kenya controls its financial data infrastructure or it doesn’t. The NIFC’s 15% tax incentive means nothing if the platform it runs on belongs to Johannesburg.
Security
Guinean troops on Liberian soil is what happens when a military junta has no external accountability. Doumbouya’s Guinea has no ECOWAS obligations (suspended), no democratic mandate, and no fear of international consequences. Liberia’s appeal to France reveals the desperation: the former colonial power is the only external actor with historical leverage, but Paris is retreating from the region. West Africa’s security architecture is being tested from multiple directions simultaneously — Sahel jihadists moving south, juntas asserting borders, and traditional guarantors withdrawing.
Digital
Bobi Wine asking Musk to restore Starlink in Uganda forces the hardest question in tech governance: does connectivity override sovereignty? Namibia says no — local ownership is non-negotiable. Uganda says connectivity is a privilege the government controls. Kenya says come and invest on our terms. Each position is coherent. None is compatible with the others. And Musk must navigate all three while pursuing the largest IPO in history built on the promise of global satellite access.
Tech
A Palantir co-founder investing $11.8 million in a Nigerian startup is not charity — it’s a bet that Nigeria’s tech ecosystem survives the macro volatility. Following Littlefish’s $9.5m Series A on Tuesday, the Terra round confirms that institutional capital distinguishes between African countries and African companies. Nigeria’s macro is messy — 20% inflation, currency volatility, bank recapitalisation — but its tech sector keeps attracting Silicon Valley money. The signal: investor conviction runs ahead of macroeconomic reality.
Developments to Watch
01
Today 15:00 SAST — SARB rate decision and MPC statement. This Africa intelligence brief’s most immediate catalyst. 21/28 economists expect hold at 6.75%. Watch for vote split (4-2 in Jan), revised inflation and oil price forecasts, and forward guidance tone. Investec flags small hike risk. Feb CPI hit 3.0% target but April fuel hikes of R4.74/litre (~$0.28) petrol and R7.73/litre (~$0.46) diesel will reverse the disinflation.
Today 15:00 SAST — SARB rate decision and MPC statement. This Africa intelligence brief’s most immediate catalyst. 21/28 economists expect hold at 6.75%. Watch for vote split (4-2 in Jan), revised inflation and oil price forecasts, and forward guidance tone. Investec flags small hike risk. Feb CPI hit 3.0% target but April fuel hikes of R4.74/litre (~$0.28) petrol and R7.73/litre (~$0.46) diesel will reverse the disinflation.
02
March 31 — Nigeria banking recapitalisation deadline. Five days away. 30 of 33 banks compliant with ₦4.61 trillion (~$3.35 billion) raised. CBN Governor Cardoso expected to issue major update this week. Watch for the 3 non-compliant banks: whether they merge, restructure, or face licence downgrades. The deadline is the most consequential moment for Nigerian financial sector stability since 2004.
March 31 — Nigeria banking recapitalisation deadline. Five days away. 30 of 33 banks compliant with ₦4.61 trillion (~$3.35 billion) raised. CBN Governor Cardoso expected to issue major update this week. Watch for the 3 non-compliant banks: whether they merge, restructure, or face licence downgrades. The deadline is the most consequential moment for Nigerian financial sector stability since 2004.
03
Guinea-Liberia border — former combatants’ one-week ultimatum. Watch for ECOWAS response, any Guinean withdrawal, or escalation. If former combatants engage Guinean troops, it would be the first armed border confrontation in the Mano River region since the end of the Liberian civil war. France’s response capacity is the diplomatic variable.
Guinea-Liberia border — former combatants’ one-week ultimatum. Watch for ECOWAS response, any Guinean withdrawal, or escalation. If former combatants engage Guinean troops, it would be the first armed border confrontation in the Mano River region since the end of the Liberian civil war. France’s response capacity is the diplomatic variable.
04
Kenya — CMA and CBK review of Vodacom-Safaricom stake. Watch for regulatory response to the 55% acquisition proposal. Any conditions imposed — data localisation, M-Pesa governance, board composition — will define Kenya’s approach to foreign ownership of strategic digital assets. The decision sets the precedent for every future telco M&A on the continent.
Kenya — CMA and CBK review of Vodacom-Safaricom stake. Watch for regulatory response to the 55% acquisition proposal. Any conditions imposed — data localisation, M-Pesa governance, board composition — will define Kenya’s approach to foreign ownership of strategic digital assets. The decision sets the precedent for every future telco M&A on the continent.
05
April 1 — South Africa Eskom tariff hikes and fuel levy increases take effect. Six days away. The double squeeze of electricity costs and fuel levies (21 cents/litre combined) hits 40 million South Africans below the poverty line. SARB’s forward guidance today will signal whether it sees the April shock as transitory or embedded. Sasol’s jet fuel supply role at OR Tambo remains critical.
April 1 — South Africa Eskom tariff hikes and fuel levy increases take effect. Six days away. The double squeeze of electricity costs and fuel levies (21 cents/litre combined) hits 40 million South Africans below the poverty line. SARB’s forward guidance today will signal whether it sees the April shock as transitory or embedded. Sasol’s jet fuel supply role at OR Tambo remains critical.
06
Saturday March 28 — Trump’s Iran postponement expires. If ceasefire talks fail, Brent reverses above $100 and every SARB, CBN, and BoK calculation changes. Dangote’s refinery export advantage strengthens in a higher-oil environment. The deadline is the external variable that overrides every African central bank’s domestic forecast.
Saturday March 28 — Trump’s Iran postponement expires. If ceasefire talks fail, Brent reverses above $100 and every SARB, CBN, and BoK calculation changes. Dangote’s refinery export advantage strengthens in a higher-oil environment. The deadline is the external variable that overrides every African central bank’s domestic forecast.
Sovereign & Credit Pulse
| COUNTRY | 10Y YIELD | CDS 5Y | OUTLOOK |
| South Africa | 10.85% | 245 bps | SARB today; CPI 3.0% but Apr shock; R17.03/$; Eskom + fuel levies Apr 1 |
| Nigeria | 18.20% ▼ | 605 bps ▼ | ₦4.61T recap; 30/33 banks; Mar 31 deadline; Dangote exports; Terra $11.8m |
| Kenya | 14.05% | 400 bps | Vodacom-Safaricom 55% stake; floods 88 dead; crypto hub; M-Pesa sovereignty |
| Tanzania | 12.80% | 350 bps | Strategic minerals deal; 85.5% electrification; 4,437 MW; hotel construction boom |
| Liberia | N/A | N/A | Guinea border crisis; diamond sector scrutiny; French mediation sought |
Power Players
01
Lesetja Kganyago — SARB Governor. Delivers his most consequential rate decision today. February CPI at 3.0% gives ammunition to cut; the $98 oil price and April fuel shock argue to hold or even hike. His revised risk scenarios and forward guidance will set the tone for South African monetary policy through the second half of 2026. The 4-2 split in January signals internal division that today’s decision must resolve.
Lesetja Kganyago — SARB Governor. Delivers his most consequential rate decision today. February CPI at 3.0% gives ammunition to cut; the $98 oil price and April fuel shock argue to hold or even hike. His revised risk scenarios and forward guidance will set the tone for South African monetary policy through the second half of 2026. The 4-2 split in January signals internal division that today’s decision must resolve.
02
Joseph Boakai — Liberia’s President. His appeal to France over Guinean troop deployment reveals the limits of Liberian sovereignty against a militarised neighbour. Boakai must balance diplomatic escalation with the reality that former combatants’ ultimatum could trigger armed confrontation that Liberia’s security forces cannot control. His handling of this crisis defines whether Liberia’s post-conflict stability holds.
Joseph Boakai — Liberia’s President. His appeal to France over Guinean troop deployment reveals the limits of Liberian sovereignty against a militarised neighbour. Boakai must balance diplomatic escalation with the reality that former combatants’ ultimatum could trigger armed confrontation that Liberia’s security forces cannot control. His handling of this crisis defines whether Liberia’s post-conflict stability holds.
03
Robert Kyagulanyi (Bobi Wine) — Ugandan opposition leader. His appeal to Musk over the Starlink shutdown internationalises Uganda’s digital repression and forces SpaceX to take a position on political censorship. Wine has built a movement on digital connectivity — social media, live streams, mobile organising — and the shutdown targets the infrastructure that makes his politics possible.
Robert Kyagulanyi (Bobi Wine) — Ugandan opposition leader. His appeal to Musk over the Starlink shutdown internationalises Uganda’s digital repression and forces SpaceX to take a position on political censorship. Wine has built a movement on digital connectivity — social media, live streams, mobile organising — and the shutdown targets the infrastructure that makes his politics possible.
04
Olayemi Cardoso — CBN Governor. Overseeing the final five days of the most consequential Nigerian banking sector restructuring since 2004. With ₦4.61 trillion (~$3.35 billion) raised and 30 of 33 banks compliant, the exercise has exceeded expectations. Cardoso’s handling of the 3 non-compliant banks — whether mercy, merger, or licence revocation — will define his legacy and the sector’s structure for the next decade.
Olayemi Cardoso — CBN Governor. Overseeing the final five days of the most consequential Nigerian banking sector restructuring since 2004. With ₦4.61 trillion (~$3.35 billion) raised and 30 of 33 banks compliant, the exercise has exceeded expectations. Cardoso’s handling of the 3 non-compliant banks — whether mercy, merger, or licence revocation — will define his legacy and the sector’s structure for the next decade.
05
Shameel Joosub — Vodacom Group CEO. Pursuing majority control of East Africa’s most valuable telco and mobile money platform. The 55% Safaricom bid would give Vodacom effective control of M-Pesa, the largest financial transaction platform in East Africa. Joosub must navigate Kenya’s data sovereignty concerns, CMA and CBK regulatory scrutiny, and a political environment where foreign ownership of digital infrastructure is increasingly contested.
Shameel Joosub — Vodacom Group CEO. Pursuing majority control of East Africa’s most valuable telco and mobile money platform. The 55% Safaricom bid would give Vodacom effective control of M-Pesa, the largest financial transaction platform in East Africa. Joosub must navigate Kenya’s data sovereignty concerns, CMA and CBK regulatory scrutiny, and a political environment where foreign ownership of digital infrastructure is increasingly contested.
Regulatory & Policy Watch
01
Nigeria CBN recapitalisation — March 31 deadline enforcement framework. International banks must hold ₦500 billion (~$363 million), national banks ₦200 billion (~$145 million). 30 banks compliant. Three under scrutiny — options include merger, restructuring, or licence downgrade. The CBN has dismissed rumours of account freezes and reassured depositors. Access Bank, Zenith, GTCO, Ecobank, Stanbic IBTC, Wema all cleared. The Unity Bank-Providus merger is nearing completion as the first consolidation under the new framework.
Nigeria CBN recapitalisation — March 31 deadline enforcement framework. International banks must hold ₦500 billion (~$363 million), national banks ₦200 billion (~$145 million). 30 banks compliant. Three under scrutiny — options include merger, restructuring, or licence downgrade. The CBN has dismissed rumours of account freezes and reassured depositors. Access Bank, Zenith, GTCO, Ecobank, Stanbic IBTC, Wema all cleared. The Unity Bank-Providus merger is nearing completion as the first consolidation under the new framework.
02
Kenya — Safaricom foreign ownership and data sovereignty framework. Vodacom’s 55% bid triggers CMA review under the Competition Act and CBK assessment of M-Pesa implications. No explicit foreign ownership cap exists for Kenyan telcos, but the M-Pesa dimension — financial data for 30+ million users — may require special conditions. The precedent set here determines whether Africa’s mobile money platforms are treated as telco assets or financial infrastructure requiring sovereign control.
Kenya — Safaricom foreign ownership and data sovereignty framework. Vodacom’s 55% bid triggers CMA review under the Competition Act and CBK assessment of M-Pesa implications. No explicit foreign ownership cap exists for Kenyan telcos, but the M-Pesa dimension — financial data for 30+ million users — may require special conditions. The precedent set here determines whether Africa’s mobile money platforms are treated as telco assets or financial infrastructure requiring sovereign control.
03
Tanzania — strategic minerals framework and processing mandates. The new deal imposes higher royalties and local processing requirements on critical mineral extraction. Tanzania’s 85.5% electrification rate provides the power infrastructure needed for mineral processing — addressing the “we have the minerals but not the power” constraint that limits beneficiation across the continent. The government is targeting value-chain capture from extraction through intermediate processing.
Tanzania — strategic minerals framework and processing mandates. The new deal imposes higher royalties and local processing requirements on critical mineral extraction. Tanzania’s 85.5% electrification rate provides the power infrastructure needed for mineral processing — addressing the “we have the minerals but not the power” constraint that limits beneficiation across the continent. The government is targeting value-chain capture from extraction through intermediate processing.
04
Nigeria — shea nut export ban extension and value-addition policy. Tinubu’s one-year extension (to February 2027) of the raw shea nut export ban forces domestic processing. Shea butter commands 10-20x the price of raw nuts. Nigeria produces approximately 60% of global shea nuts. The policy is the agricultural equivalent of the Dangote model: process domestically, export the finished product, capture the value margin. Implementation depends on processing capacity that Nigeria is still building.
Nigeria — shea nut export ban extension and value-addition policy. Tinubu’s one-year extension (to February 2027) of the raw shea nut export ban forces domestic processing. Shea butter commands 10-20x the price of raw nuts. Nigeria produces approximately 60% of global shea nuts. The policy is the agricultural equivalent of the Dangote model: process domestically, export the finished product, capture the value margin. Implementation depends on processing capacity that Nigeria is still building.
Calendar
| DATE | EVENT | IMPACT |
| Mar 26 | SARB rate decision — 15:00 SAST | Hold expected; revised oil/inflation forecasts; forward guidance tone critical |
| Mar 28 | Trump’s 5-day Iran postponement expires | Oil direction; Brent above or below $100 determines every African central bank path |
| Mar 31 | Nigeria CBN banking recapitalisation deadline | 30/33 compliant; 3 under scrutiny; mergers, downgrades, or extensions |
| Apr 1 | SA Eskom tariff hikes + fuel levy increases | Double squeeze; 21c/litre levies + electricity + R4.74/litre petrol |
| May 1 | China zero-tariff access for African goods | Export opportunity for commodity producers; Tanzania minerals positioned |
| May 6-8 | 3i Africa Summit — Accra, Ghana | Bank of Ghana hosted; regulators + fintech; digital economy agenda |
Bottom Line
Today’s Africa brief is organised around three questions that define the continent’s relationship with the global economy: who controls the minerals, who controls the data, and who controls the borders?
Tanzania’s strategic minerals deal answers the first question with increasing clarity. When a government that has electrified 85% of its villages and is doubling power capacity renegotiates extraction terms, it is not just demanding higher royalties — it is building the infrastructure to process what it extracts. DRC, Zimbabwe, and Namibia have made similar moves. Nigeria extended its shea nut export ban for the same reason. The pattern is unmistakable: Africa is done exporting raw materials at the bottom of the value chain.
The Vodacom-Safaricom story answers the data question with uncomfortable directness. Kenya cannot simultaneously position itself as East Africa’s digital finance hub and surrender majority control of the platform that makes digital finance possible. M-Pesa is not a telco product — it is financial infrastructure used by 30 million Kenyans. If Vodacom secures 55%, the transaction data that powers credit scoring, micro-lending, and payment flows will be governed from Johannesburg. The CMA and CBK review will determine whether Kenya treats M-Pesa as a commercial asset or a sovereign one.
The Liberia-Guinea border crisis and the Uganda Starlink shutdown answer the borders question — both physical and digital. Guinean troops on Liberian soil is a sovereignty violation by a military junta with no external accountability. The Starlink shutdown in Uganda is a digital border closure that cuts off the satellite infrastructure opposition movements depend on. In both cases, the question is the same: who has the power to decide what crosses borders — goods, troops, data, or signals?
The Palantir co-founder’s investment in Terra and the ongoing banking recapitalisation in Nigeria add an investment dimension. Silicon Valley continues funding Nigerian tech even as the macro environment remains volatile. The ₦4.61 trillion banking recap — Africa’s largest in two decades — demonstrates that Nigeria’s financial sector can mobilise capital at scale when the regulatory framework demands it. Both stories suggest that institutional capital evaluates African countries on execution capacity, not headline risk.
The SARB decision today and the Nigeria banking deadline on March 31 provide the institutional anchors. Kganyago’s forward guidance will signal whether South Africa sees the April cost-of-living shock as manageable or as the beginning of a renewed inflation cycle. Cardoso’s handling of the three non-compliant banks will determine whether Nigeria’s recapitalisation is remembered as a success or a near-miss.
For Latin American investors, Africa’s March 26 is a study in leverage and sovereignty. Every story — mineral renegotiation, data ownership, border security, digital access, tech investment — has a direct parallel in the Latin American context. This Africa intelligence brief will track how each negotiation resolves, because the outcomes establish the precedents that every emerging market government and investor will reference for the rest of the decade.