USA & Canada Intelligence Brief — March 11, 2026

1 US February CPI holds at 2.4% — in line with expectations; core steady at 2.5%; but analysts call it “the calm before the storm” as Iran war oil shock has not yet hit the data; Fed expected to hold through September — the Bureau of Labor Statistics reported Wednesday that the consumer price index rose 0.3% in February and 2.4% year-on-year, both matching the Dow Jones consensus; core CPI excluding food and energy posted a 0.2% monthly gain and 2.5% annual rate, also in line; shelter was the largest contributor to the monthly increase at +0.2%; food rose 0.4%; energy increased 0.6%; Carson Group’s Sonu Varghese said this is “the calm before the storm that will show up due to surging gasoline prices in March”; CNBC analysts estimate that if conflict persists, CPI could rise to 3.5% by year-end with gasoline approaching $5/gallon (~$1.32/litre) in Q2; Moody’s Mark Zandi said inflation is “stubbornly high, especially for necessities” and “this is all before the fallout from events in the Middle East”; the American Farm Bureau warned that disrupted fertiliser supply risks a US crop shortfall; traders now expect the next Fed rate cut in September, with 43% probability of a second cut before year-end; US economy news today centres on this pre-war inflation snapshot and what comes next

2 US economy shed 92,000 jobs in February — third loss in five months; unemployment rises to 4.4%; December revised to −17,000; economy has lost jobs on net since April 2025; long-term unemployment at highest since December 2021 — nonfarm payrolls fell 92,000 in February versus the consensus estimate of +50,000, following a downwardly revised +126,000 in January; December was revised from +48,000 to −17,000; healthcare lost 28,000 due to a Kaiser Permanente strike affecting 30,000+ workers; manufacturing lost 12,000 despite tariffs aimed at reshoring; federal government employment dropped 10,000, part of a 330,000 (11%) reduction since October 2024; information services lost 11,000, continuing a 12-month downward trend; average hourly earnings rose 0.4% to $37.32 (~€31.90), up 3.8% year-on-year; the economy has averaged fewer than 5,000 new jobs per month since Trump took office; Navy Federal Credit Union’s Heather Long noted the US economy has lost jobs on net since April 2025; Fortune called the report “dismal”; long-term unemployment at 25.7 weeks is the longest since December 2021

3 IEA proposes 400 million barrel emergency oil release — largest in history; G7 energy ministers meet Wednesday; Japan acts unilaterally from March 16; US crude fell from $120 to ~$90 but rose 4% Wednesday; Trump says he destroyed 10 Iranian mine-laying vessels — the International Energy Agency proposed that OECD member states release 400 million barrels from emergency reserves, German Economy Minister Katherina Reiche confirmed; the IEA’s 32 member states are expected to vote after failing to reach consensus Tuesday; Japan broke ranks to act unilaterally; G7 energy ministers reaffirmed support for using strategic reserves; US crude briefly topped $100/barrel Monday before falling to ~$90 on Trump’s comments that the conflict could “end soon”; however crude rose about 4% Wednesday as Defence Secretary Hegseth said “today will be the most intense day of strikes”; Trump said the US had “completely destroyed 10 inactive mine-laying vessels in last few hours”; the proposed release would dwarf the 182 million barrels released in 2022; West Texas Intermediate rose 35% in one week — the largest weekly increase since WTI futures were introduced in 1983

4 Canada benefits as net energy exporter but faces structural trade headwinds — Scotiabank models GDP +0.5% from $10/bbl oil increase; Canadian firms have recovered ~C$11 billion of C$18.5 billion US export loss; US Section 232 tariffs at 50% crush steel, aluminum, auto sectors — Scotiabank’s model estimates that a persistent $10/barrel increase in WTI raises Canadian GDP by 0.5% in year two, lifts CPI by 0.2 percentage points, and strengthens the Canadian dollar by approximately 3%; energy sector profits and investment rise but are offset by a squeeze on real disposable income from higher gasoline prices; Canadian businesses have rotated exports to 27 trading partners, recovering nearly C$11 billion (~$7.8 billion) of the C$18.5 billion (~$13.1 billion) loss in US-bound exports; approximately one-third of the recovery stems from oil exports, with jet engines and aircraft next; however, steel, aluminum, auto, and lumber industries have suffered a net loss of C$8.8 billion (~$6.2 billion) under crippling US Section 232 tariffs at up to 50%; Bank of Canada Governor Tiff Macklem has distinguished between cyclical and structural shifts, warning that lower interest rates alone cannot solve structural trade damage; Trump threatened a 100% tariff on all Canadian imports in January if Canada finalised a trade deal with China

5 US-Canada trade relationship at most volatile point in decades — CUSMA survives as “zombie” agreement; US tariffs at 35% on Canadian goods with 50% on steel/aluminum; Carney-China canola deal lowers duties from 84% to 15%; Trump threatens to raise to 100% — US tariffs on Canadian goods were raised to 35% from 25% in August 2025, with most CUSMA-compliant goods exempt but steel, copper, certain autos and auto parts subject to duties; Eurasia Group describes CUSMA as a “zombie” agreement — neither fully dead nor alive; PM Mark Carney secured a deal with Beijing lowering canola seed tariffs from 84% to approximately 15% from March 1, with canola meal, lobsters, crabs, and peas freed from anti-discrimination tariffs through end of 2026; Canada will extend tariff-remission programs for Chinese steel and aluminum products in short domestic supply; Trump initially praised the deal but subsequently threatened a 100% tariff on all Canadian imports if Canada deepened China ties; US economy news today underscores that the North American trade architecture is being reshaped by simultaneous energy crisis, tariff escalation, and geopolitical realignment

INFLATION The February CPI report is a snapshot of an economy that no longer exists. The 2.4% headline and 2.5% core were recorded before oil surged 35% in a week. Carson Group calls it “the calm before the storm.” CNBC estimates CPI could reach 3.5% by year-end if conflict persists, with gasoline approaching $5/gallon (~$1.32/litre). The Fed’s dual mandate is being pulled in opposite directions: inflation too high to cut, employment too weak to tighten. September is the earliest the market expects relief.

JOBS February’s −92,000 payrolls is not an outlier — it is a pattern. Three of the last five months have seen job losses. December was revised from gains to losses. The economy has averaged fewer than 5,000 new jobs per month since January 2025. Without healthcare, which was distorted by a strike, the economy would have shed roughly 202,000 jobs since Trump took office. Manufacturing lost 12,000 despite tariffs designed to reshore production. The labor market’s narrow base — healthcare carrying the rest — has collapsed.

ENERGY The IEA’s 400 million barrel reserve release proposal is the energy market’s equivalent of a central bank emergency intervention. It signals that the Hormuz disruption is being treated as structural, not temporary. The US is a net energy exporter, which cushions the blow relative to Europe, Japan, and India — the S&P 500 is down only 2% versus the DAX’s 6.8%. But US consumers are not insulated: gasoline prices are surging, and the Farm Bureau warns that disrupted fertiliser supply could trigger a crop shortfall and a food price shock later this year.

CANADA Canada is the rare economy that benefits from the oil shock in aggregate — Scotiabank estimates GDP rises 0.5% for every persistent $10/bbl increase. But the benefit is unevenly distributed: energy-producing provinces gain while consumers pay more at the pump. The trade diversification story is real: C$11 billion of the C$18.5 billion US export loss has been recovered through 27 new trading partners. But steel, aluminum, auto, and lumber — the sectors crushed by Section 232 — have not recovered. Carney’s China canola deal was shrewd but risky: Trump’s 100% tariff threat hangs over every move Ottawa makes toward Beijing.

TRADE The US-Canada trade relationship is at its most volatile point in decades. CUSMA is a “zombie” — exemptions for compliant goods keep free trade on life support while sectoral tariffs up to 50% crush specific industries. Trump’s use of trade policy as a coercive tool — threatening 100% tariffs if Carney deepens China ties — transforms bilateral trade from an economic relationship into a geopolitical lever. For Latin American observers, US economy news today signals that no trade partner, however close, is immune from Washington’s use of tariffs as foreign policy.

1 US tariffs raised average household costs by $1,100 in 2025 — What happened: the Tax Foundation estimates Trump’s tariffs added $1,100 to the average American household’s annual expenses in 2025; the effective tariff rate is 10.5%, the highest since 1943, after the Supreme Court’s invalidation of IEEPA-based tariffs. So what: the tariff burden compounds the oil price shock; consumers face rising costs on both imported goods and energy simultaneously.

2 Federal government shed 330,000 jobs since October 2024 — What happened: federal employment has fallen 11% from its October 2024 peak, with another 10,000 jobs lost in February; Trump’s efforts to pare federal payrolls are the largest reduction since the post-WWII demobilisation. So what: the federal job cuts are removing a historically stable source of employment at a moment when private-sector hiring has stalled.

3 Farm Bureau warns fertiliser disruption risks US crop shortfall — What happened: Zippy Duvall, president of the American Farm Bureau Federation, wrote to President Trump warning that disrupted fertiliser supply from the Middle East threatens a US food production shortfall. So what: agriculture prices would be “most at risk” from sustained oil and gas price increases, as natural gas is a key fertiliser input; a production shock would create inflationary pressure across the economy and a national security concern.

4 Canada-China canola deal reshapes trade dynamics — What happened: PM Carney’s January deal lowered Chinese tariffs on canola seed from 84% to approximately 15%, restored access to a C$4 billion (~$2.8 billion) annual market, and freed canola meal, lobsters, crabs, and peas from anti-discrimination tariffs through 2026. So what: the deal demonstrates Canada’s ability to diversify trade under pressure, but Trump’s 100% tariff threat looms if Ottawa is perceived as deepening ties with Beijing.

5 US business productivity rises 2.8% in Q4 2025 — What happened: the Labor Department reported business sector labour productivity climbed 2.8% in Q4, reflecting strong tech sector output and AI-driven efficiency gains. So what: productivity gains are real but not translating to workers — labour’s share of income fell to the lowest level on record; the disconnect between productivity and wages creates political pressure heading into midterms.

6 US gives India 30-day waiver to buy Russian oil — What happened: Washington granted India a 30-day waiver to continue purchasing Russian crude, reversing earlier sanctions enforcement to maintain global supply stability during the Iran war. So what: the US is now encouraging oil flows it previously tried to restrict — geopolitical expediency overriding sanctions policy in real time.

Mark Zandi — Moody’s chief economist; declared inflation “stubbornly high, especially for necessities” and warned this is “all before the fallout from events in the Middle East”; his assessment frames the February CPI as a floor, not a ceiling, for 2026 price pressures.

Heather Long — Navy Federal Credit Union’s chief economist; documented that the US economy has lost jobs on net since April 2025 and warned that “companies are not hiring in the face of all of these headwinds”; her observation that “even healthcare is starting to slow down” captures the erosion of the labour market’s last growth pillar.

Pete Hegseth — US Defence Secretary; said Wednesday “today will be the most intense day of strikes” against Iran, contradicting Trump’s hints that the conflict could end soon; the dissonance between escalation rhetoric and de-escalation signals is what keeps oil prices volatile.

Mark Carney — Canadian PM; navigating the most complex trade environment in decades — securing a China canola deal while managing a 35% US tariff regime and a 100% tariff threat; his distinction between cyclical downturns and structural trade damage defines Canada’s policy challenge.

Zippy Duvall — American Farm Bureau Federation president; his letter to Trump warning of a US crop shortfall from disrupted fertiliser supply links the Middle East war directly to American food security — a connection that most market analyses have not yet priced in.

1 IEA 400 million barrel reserve release — decision pending — OECD members voting Wednesday; largest in IEA history; Japan acting unilaterally from March 16; G7 energy ministers reaffirmed support; would dwarf 2022 Ukraine-era release of 182 million barrels.

2 Fed rate path — on hold through September — traders expect next cut September; 43% chance of second cut before year-end; Feb CPI in line but war complicates outlook; Minneapolis Fed’s Kashkari: “too soon to know how Iran war will affect inflation”; March 19 FOMC meeting next.

3 US tariff regime — 10.5% effective rate, highest since 1943 — Section 122 baseline at 10% rising to 15%; Section 232 at up to 50% on Canadian steel/aluminum; Supreme Court invalidated IEEPA-based tariffs; Tax Foundation: $1,100/year added per household; Trump pushing 15–20% minimum on EU goods.

4 Canada tariff-remission extension for Chinese steel/aluminum — Ottawa extending remission programs for 66 product-specific and 49 company-specific Chinese steel and aluminum lines through end of 2026; adding 7 steel, 2 aluminum, and 4 steel-derivative products; retroactive to January 1.

The February CPI at 2.4% is the last clean inflation reading the United States will get. Every subsequent report will carry the oil shock, and analysts at CNBC estimate CPI could reach 3.5% by year-end if the conflict persists. This is part of The Rio Times’ daily intelligence coverage of the USA and Canada for the Latin American financial community. Gasoline approaching $5/gallon (~$1.32/litre) in Q2, combined with tariffs that have already added $1,100 to the average household’s annual costs, creates a consumer squeeze that the Fed cannot solve. Cutting rates would stoke inflation; holding them starves a labour market that has lost jobs on net since April 2025. The dual mandate has become a dual bind.

February’s 92,000 job loss is not a weather story or a strike story. It is a pattern. Three of the last five months have seen payroll declines. December was revised from gains to losses. Federal government employment has fallen 330,000 since October 2024 — an 11% reduction. Manufacturing lost 12,000 despite tariffs designed to reshore production. Without healthcare, which was itself distorted by a Kaiser strike, the economy would have shed roughly 202,000 jobs since Trump took office. Labour’s share of income has fallen to the lowest level on record even as productivity climbs 2.8%. The economy is generating more value per hour of work, but workers are not capturing it.

The IEA’s proposed 400 million barrel reserve release — the largest in its history — is the energy market’s equivalent of a central bank emergency intervention. Japan’s decision to act unilaterally signals that importing nations view the Hormuz closure as structural. The US is relatively insulated as a net energy exporter — the S&P 500 is down only 2% while the DAX has fallen 6.8% and the Nikkei 7.9%. But insulation is not immunity. Gasoline prices are surging, the Farm Bureau warns of a crop shortfall from disrupted fertiliser supply, and airline fares could see CPI increases from 2.2% to 20% on jet fuel costs alone.

Canada occupies a unique position: it benefits from the oil shock as a net energy exporter while simultaneously suffering from US tariffs that have crushed its steel, aluminum, auto, and lumber sectors. Scotiabank estimates every persistent $10/barrel increase adds 0.5% to GDP in year two. Canadian firms have diversified impressively, recovering C$11 billion of the C$18.5 billion US export loss through 27 new trading partners. But Carney’s China canola deal — however economically rational — exists in the shadow of Trump’s 100% tariff threat. Every move Ottawa makes toward Beijing risks Washington’s retaliation.

The US-Canada trade relationship is no longer a bilateral economic arrangement — it is a geopolitical instrument. CUSMA is a “zombie” agreement, kept alive by exemptions while sectoral tariffs up to 50% operate outside it. Trump has explicitly used the threat of 100% tariffs to deter Canada from deepening ties with China, transforming trade policy into foreign policy. For Latin American economies watching from the south, the lesson is clear: proximity to Washington provides no exemption from its coercive trade tools, and the North American economic order that existed for three decades is being fundamentally restructured.

US economy news today presents a picture of an economy that Trump promised would be “roaring” but is instead whimpering through its worst stretch of job losses in years, facing an inflation shock it cannot yet see in the data, and conducting a war whose economic costs are only beginning to materialise. The midterm elections in November will be contested on this terrain. The gap between the president’s rhetoric and the data has never been wider — and the Iran war ensures that the data will get worse before voters decide whether the rhetoric was ever credible.