USA & Canada Intelligence Brief for Tuesday, March 10, 2026

1 Anthropic sues Trump administration over “supply chain risk” designation — first time the authority has been used against a US company; Pentagon ordered to phase out Claude from classified systems; OpenAI and Google developers file supporting brief — Anthropic filed two lawsuits Monday in California federal court and the DC federal appeals court challenging the Defense Department’s designation of the company as a “supply chain risk” — an authority designed to block foreign adversaries, never before used against a domestic firm; Defence Secretary Hegseth ordered Anthropic’s Claude phased out of classified military systems within six months, including systems actively used in the Iran war; Trump ordered all federal agencies to stop using Claude; Anthropic argues the actions are “unprecedented and unlawful” retaliation for its AI safety policies prohibiting lethal autonomous warfare and mass surveillance; over 30 AI developers from OpenAI and Google filed an amicus brief Monday supporting Anthropic; the case raises First Amendment and due process claims that could reshape the government-AI relationship

2 Existing home sales rebound 1.7% in February — but mortgage rates still above 6%; CPI due Wednesday is last inflation read before FOMC; Goldman warns sustained oil could push inflation from 2.4% to 3% by year-end — Existing home sales jumped 1.7% month-on-month in February, providing a rare positive data point in a week dominated by energy volatility; however, mortgage rates remain above 6%, limiting the recovery’s scope; Redfin chief economist Daryl Fairweather noted the housing market faces crosswinds from volatile oil and gas prices; Wednesday’s February CPI report is the last inflation reading before the March 17–18 FOMC meeting; Goldman Sachs warned that if higher oil prices persist for most of the year, inflation could rise from its 2.4% January reading to 3% by December; Friday’s PCE reading will also inform the Fed’s baseline; 10-year Treasury yield eased to 4.117% on Tuesday

3 Trump voters sour on $3.48 gas: “He said he was going to bring gas down” — GasBuddy warns another 15–35¢ this week; diesel approaching $5 national average; Pew: 68% concerned about gas before war started; Trump calls it “a little glitch” — Fortune reported Tuesday from Iowa gas stations where Trump voters expressed dismay; factory worker Francisco Castillo: “He said he was going to bring gas down, but the war in Iran is now making everything worse”; AAA data still shows $3.48 national average, up from $2.90 a month ago; GasBuddy’s De Haan warned gas could rise another 15–35 cents this week and diesel another 35–50 cents, approaching $5 nationally; Trump dismissed the surge as “a little glitch” and “just an excursion into something that had to be done”; Pew found 68% of Americans were concerned about gas prices before the war even began; Goldman Sachs estimates every 10% oil increase persisting for most of the year adds 0.4 percentage points to global inflation; Oxford Economics warns lower-income households will cut discretionary spending as gas takes a larger share of essentials budgets

4 Oracle reports earnings TODAY — $100B+ debt load and massive layoffs test AI data centre thesis against energy shock; largest enterprise cloud proxy for the $650B hyperscaler buildout; BofA warns of “energy bottleneck” — Oracle (ORCL) reports after the bell Tuesday in what may be the most closely watched enterprise earnings of the quarter; the company carries over $100 billion in debt as it pursues Larry Ellison’s three-step transformation into a cloud infrastructure giant; Oracle has conducted significant layoffs to fund the pivot; the earnings arrive as BofA warns the $650 billion hyperscaler capex cycle faces an “energy bottleneck” from the oil shock; Oracle’s cloud infrastructure revenue is a direct proxy for AI data centre demand; Adobe (ADBE) also reports this week, facing questions about AI cannibalisation of its creative tools business; NVIDIA GTC opens March 16 with Jensen Huang’s keynote on March 17

5 Bank of Canada March 18 decision looms as oil whiplash reshapes outlook — TSX futures +0.4% on gold; Scotiabank downgrades Air Canada to sector perform, cuts target to C$21 (~$15); CUSMA-Mexico talks start March 16 — Canadian stock futures edged higher Tuesday as gold at $5,182/oz offset the oil price crash; Scotiabank downgraded Air Canada to “sector perform” from “sector outperform” and cut its price target to C$21 (~$15) from C$27 (~$19), citing jet fuel volatility; the Bank of Canada’s March 18 rate decision comes one day after the FOMC amid mounting geopolitical and supply-side risks; Canada’s jobs data is due later this week; CUSMA trilateral talks with Mexico begin March 16 ahead of the July 2026 review deadline; the Canadian dollar has been strengthening on oil but Tuesday’s crash complicates the picture

AI The Anthropic lawsuit is the most significant confrontation between the tech industry and the executive branch since the Apple-FBI encryption fight of 2016. The government is punishing a US company for refusing to enable autonomous killing and mass surveillance. The amicus brief from OpenAI and Google developers signals industry-wide alarm.

HOUSING February’s 1.7% home sales rebound is welcome but deceiving. Mortgage rates above 6% in an economy losing jobs with oil at $85+ is not a recovery — it’s a dead-cat bounce in a market that needs rate cuts the Fed can’t deliver.

CONSUMER Trump calling $3.48 gas “a little glitch” while his own voters say “he said he was going to bring gas down” is the political gap that defines midterm risk. Pew’s 68% figure was before the war. The number now is almost certainly higher.

TECH Oracle’s earnings are the canary for the entire AI infrastructure thesis. If cloud revenue decelerates while debt exceeds $100 billion, the market will ask whether the energy shock is killing the capex cycle before it delivers returns.

CANADA Scotiabank’s Air Canada downgrade is a microcosm of the oil whiplash problem: Canadian energy producers benefit from higher crude while Canadian airlines and consumers are crushed by it. The BoC’s March 18 decision must navigate both sides.

1 CPI due Wednesday — February consumer price index is the last inflation read before the FOMC; won’t capture the oil shock yet but sets the baseline; Goldman warns persistent oil adds 0.4 percentage points per 10% increase.

2 10-year Treasury auction Wednesday — tests demand for US debt amid elevated inflation fears; Monday’s yield briefly hit 4.20% before retreating to 4.117% Tuesday; a weak auction would signal bond market stress.

3 SPR still untapped at ~415M barrels — Trump declined to commit to a release; criticised Biden’s 2022 drawdown; said he would refill “at the appropriate time”; SPR is less than 60% full despite his 2024 campaign promise to fill it “right to the top”.

4 US maritime reinsurance programme announced — the International Development Finance Corporation will insure losses up to $20 billion on a rolling basis for ships sailing through the Persian Gulf; timeline unclear.

5 Federal employment down ~330,000 under Trump — research funding freezes and agency restructuring have cut hundreds of thousands more indirect jobs; manufacturing employment down ~300,000 after rising 600,000 under Biden.

6 2025 payroll revisions reveal weakest year since pandemic — BLS data revised 2025 down by 403,000 jobs; the year averaged just 15,000 new jobs per month; December revised to a net loss of 17,000; the “soft landing” was partly a statistical mirage.

Dario Amodei — Anthropic CEO filed the most consequential AI-government lawsuit since the technology’s emergence; the case tests whether the executive branch can punish a company for its safety policies; Claude is embedded in classified military systems being used in the active war.

Patrick De Haan — GasBuddy’s head of petroleum analysis warned Tuesday that gas could rise another 15–35 cents this week and diesel 35–50 cents; his forecasts are driving consumer anxiety and political pressure on the White House.

Larry Ellison — Oracle’s founder and CTO reports earnings today with $100B+ in debt and a three-step cloud transformation under scrutiny; the energy shock has made every data centre more expensive; the market wants proof the AI capex cycle can survive $85+ oil.

Daryl Fairweather — Redfin chief economist provided context on Tuesday’s home sales rebound, noting crosswinds from oil volatility and mortgage rates above 6%; the housing market needs rate cuts that the Fed cannot deliver.

Tiff Macklem — Bank of Canada Governor faces the March 18 decision one day after the FOMC; Canada’s resource-heavy economy benefits from oil but consumers and airlines are suffering; the BoC rate stands at 2.25%.

1 FOMC March 17–18 with new dot plot — first projections incorporating the oil shock; one cut now priced for September (down from two pre-war); CPI and PCE this week set the baseline; Powell’s last meeting with new projections before his term expires May 15.

2 Anthropic supply chain risk litigation — two lawsuits filed; First Amendment and due process claims; Pentagon has 6 months to phase out Claude from classified systems; case could set precedent for government’s power to coerce AI companies into enabling autonomous weapons.

3 Bank of Canada March 18 — one day after FOMC; rate at 2.25%; oil whiplash complicates outlook; Canada jobs data due this week; CUSMA-Mexico talks begin March 16 ahead of July 2026 review deadline.

4 DFC maritime reinsurance programme — up to $20 billion in rolling insurance for Persian Gulf shipping; timeline unclear; Trump also said US Navy could escort tankers if necessary; war-risk insurers have cancelled coverage.

The Anthropic lawsuit is the most important AI-government confrontation since the technology emerged. The Pentagon is punishing a US company for refusing to enable autonomous killing and mass surveillance — then ordering it removed from classified systems it helped build. The amicus brief from OpenAI and Google developers signals that this is not one company’s problem. It is the industry’s.

The consumer story is now the political story. Trump calling $3.48 gas “a little glitch” while his own voters say he promised to bring prices down is the gap that will define midterm messaging. GasBuddy’s forecast of another 15–35 cents this week means the pain is not over. Goldman’s warning that sustained oil pushes inflation to 3% means the Fed cannot rescue anyone.

Oracle’s earnings tonight test whether the AI capex thesis survives the energy shock. If cloud revenue decelerates while debt exceeds $100 billion, the market will conclude the “energy bottleneck” BofA warned about is real. NVIDIA GTC opens in six days. The AI infrastructure narrative needs a win this week or the repricing accelerates.

Wednesday’s CPI is the week’s macro pivot. It won’t capture the oil shock — February data predates the war — but it sets the baseline the FOMC uses to project forward. If core inflation is sticky at 2.5%+ before oil hits, the dot plot on March 18 could eliminate rate cuts entirely for 2026. Markets have already adjusted from two cuts to one. Zero would be a shock.

Canada’s March 18 decision arrives one day after the FOMC in an economy pulled in opposite directions. Oil producers benefit from higher crude. Airlines, consumers and manufacturers suffer. Scotiabank’s Air Canada downgrade is the market pricing in that tension. The CUSMA talks starting March 16 add trade uncertainty to energy uncertainty. Macklem’s challenge is the same as Powell’s — navigate a shock he didn’t cause, with tools that can only address one side of a two-sided problem.