What matters today
1 US Embassy authorizes Israel staff departure amid Iran strike fears — State Department issues authorized departure for non-emergency personnel and families from Mission Israel; Ambassador Huckabee emails staff to leave “TODAY”; comes one day after third round of US-Iran nuclear talks in Geneva ended without breakthrough; Britain withdraws staff from Tehran; China urges citizens to evacuate Iran; KLM suspends Tel Aviv flights
2 Bill Clinton testifies in historic Epstein deposition — first former president compelled to testify before Congress; no sitting or former president has appeared before lawmakers since Gerald Ford voluntarily did so in 1983; House Oversight Committee questioning underway in Chappaqua, NY; follows Hillary Clinton’s 6+ hour deposition yesterday; Comer says Clinton flew on Epstein plane “at least 27 times” and Epstein visited White House 17 times; Democrats demand Trump also testify
3 PPI inflation shock rattles markets — January producer prices rose 0.5% month-over-month vs 0.3% expected; core PPI surged 0.8% vs 0.3% forecast; year-over-year headline at 2.9%, core at 3.6%; driven by 14.4% jump in professional equipment wholesaling margins; S&P 500 falls ~1%, Dow drops ~600 points; S&P on pace for worst month since March; VIX surges above 21
4 Trump Section 122 tariffs take effect as 1,000+ firms sue — replacement 10% global tariff under Trade Act of 1974 took effect Feb 24, one week after Supreme Court struck down IEEPA tariffs 6-3; Trump threatens 15% increase; Greer says China tariffs to stay at 35–50%; Costco, FedEx among 1,000+ companies filing for IEEPA refunds; refund process could take years
5 Carney lands in India for trade diversification tour — Canadian PM arrives in Mumbai to begin 10-day Asia trip covering India, Australia, and Japan; pursuing comprehensive economic partnership with Modi targeting agreement within 12 months; bilateral relations reset after 2023 Nijjar diplomatic freeze; Saskatchewan and New Brunswick premiers join; follows Davos “middle power” speech
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Market Snapshot
Market Snapshot
| Pair / Index | Level | Day Chg |
|---|---|---|
| S&P 500 | 6,840 | −1.0% |
| Dow Jones | 48,895 | −1.2% |
| Nasdaq Composite | 22,620 | −1.1% |
| TSX Composite | 25,580 | −0.5% |
| USD/CAD | 1.3780 | Flat |
| US 10Y Yield | 4.22% | −4bp |
| WTI Crude | $71.80 | +1.2% |
| Gold (spot) | $5,226 | +0.9% |
| Bitcoin | $66,285 | −1.8% |
US equities sank for a second session as hot PPI data, post-Nvidia AI anxiety, and Iran strike fears converged. S&P 500 on pace for worst month since March. Block (SQ) surged ~20% after announcing 4,000 layoffs in AI pivot. Salesforce +4% on earnings beat. Nvidia −2.5% extending post-earnings slump. Netflix +7% after dropping Warner Bros. bid. VIX spiked above 21. Safe havens bid: gold +$49, Treasuries rallied. Oil gained on Middle East tension.
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Conflict & Stability Tracker
Conflict & Stability Tracker
Critical
US–Iran Nuclear Standoff
Third round of talks in Geneva ended Feb 26 without deal. CENTCOM briefed Trump on military options. Vance says “no chance” of protracted conflict but doesn’t rule out strikes. State Dept authorizes Israel embassy departure. UK withdraws Tehran staff. China urges citizens to evacuate Iran. Massive US naval buildup in Persian Gulf. Iran vows retaliation if attacked.
Critical
US Trade Architecture in Flux
Supreme Court struck IEEPA tariffs 6-3 on Feb 20. Section 122 replacement at 10% took effect Feb 24; capped at 15% and expires July 24. Administration pursuing Section 301 and 232 investigations. China rate held at 35–50%. Over 1,000 companies suing for IEEPA refunds estimated at $175B+. Trade deal certainty with 18 countries in question.
Tense
US–Canada Relations
White House AI-generated TikTok mocking Canadians draws condemnation from US hockey star Tkachuk. Carney pursues trade diversification to India, Australia, Japan. Section 122 tariffs apply to Canada alongside all nations. Bilateral tensions persist over 51st state rhetoric, though Olympic hockey diplomacy offers brief respite.
Watching
US Border / Counter-Drone
Pentagon laser shot down CBP drone near Fort Hancock, TX on Feb 26 — CBP hadn’t notified military it was flying. FAA closes airspace through June 24. Second laser incident in two weeks after Feb 11 El Paso airport shutdown. Democrats demand IG investigation. Interagency coordination breakdown persists.
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Fast Take
Fast Take
GEOPOLITICS
Iran strike calculus shifts — embassy departure authorization is strongest signal yet that military action timeline is compressing; multiple countries withdrawing diplomatic staff from region; commercial airlines suspending routes; Pentagon’s CENTCOM commander briefed Trump on options same day talks stalled
Iran strike calculus shifts — embassy departure authorization is strongest signal yet that military action timeline is compressing; multiple countries withdrawing diplomatic staff from region; commercial airlines suspending routes; Pentagon’s CENTCOM commander briefed Trump on options same day talks stalled
INFLATION
PPI upside surprise kills near-term rate cut hopes — core PPI at +0.8% MoM is more than double consensus; services inflation driven by trade margin adjustments, not goods; but markets repricing Fed path; PCE data due March 13 ahead of March 17–18 FOMC meeting will be decisive
PPI upside surprise kills near-term rate cut hopes — core PPI at +0.8% MoM is more than double consensus; services inflation driven by trade margin adjustments, not goods; but markets repricing Fed path; PCE data due March 13 ahead of March 17–18 FOMC meeting will be decisive
TECH
Block’s 40% layoff signals AI job displacement wave — Dorsey cuts 4,000 of 10,000 employees citing “intelligence tools”; stock surges ~20%; predicts most companies will follow within a year; Salesforce, Amazon, eBay have all made AI-linked cuts in recent months; Nvidia post-earnings selloff extends to −8% over two days
Block’s 40% layoff signals AI job displacement wave — Dorsey cuts 4,000 of 10,000 employees citing “intelligence tools”; stock surges ~20%; predicts most companies will follow within a year; Salesforce, Amazon, eBay have all made AI-linked cuts in recent months; Nvidia post-earnings selloff extends to −8% over two days
TRADE
Section 122 tariff clock is ticking — 150-day statutory limit expires July 24 without congressional extension; administration racing to launch Section 301 investigations as alternative authority; 18 existing trade deals negotiated under IEEPA now legally uncertain
Section 122 tariff clock is ticking — 150-day statutory limit expires July 24 without congressional extension; administration racing to launch Section 301 investigations as alternative authority; 18 existing trade deals negotiated under IEEPA now legally uncertain
CANADA
Carney’s India gambit — PM arrives in Mumbai for first major Asia trip since Davos “middle power” speech; pursuing oil, gas, uranium, critical minerals exports to India; Canada-India trade talks could yield comprehensive deal within 12 months if relations hold; Sikh community backlash over diplomatic reset
Carney’s India gambit — PM arrives in Mumbai for first major Asia trip since Davos “middle power” speech; pursuing oil, gas, uranium, critical minerals exports to India; Canada-India trade talks could yield comprehensive deal within 12 months if relations hold; Sikh community backlash over diplomatic reset
AI
OpenAI raises $110B at $730B valuation — Amazon among investors; multi-year partnership to develop custom models for Amazon consumer apps; valuation jumps 46% from $500B secondary in October; comes as AI bubble fears grow and S&P 500 tech weighting faces scrutiny
OpenAI raises $110B at $730B valuation — Amazon among investors; multi-year partnership to develop custom models for Amazon consumer apps; valuation jumps 46% from $500B secondary in October; comes as AI bubble fears grow and S&P 500 tech weighting faces scrutiny
04
Developments to Watch
Developments to Watch
US Embassy Israel: Authorized Departure Signals Strike Timeline
The State Department on Feb 27 authorized the departure of non-emergency US government personnel and their families from Mission Israel, citing “safety risks.” Ambassador Mike Huckabee emailed staff urging those wishing to leave to do so “TODAY,” warning that commercial flights could become scarce. The move came one day after the third round of US-Iran nuclear talks in Geneva ended without a breakthrough. Iran insisted on domestic uranium enrichment; the US demanded limits and long-term verification. CENTCOM commander Adm. Brad Cooper briefed Trump on military options the same day. VP Vance told the Washington Post he sees “no chance” of a protracted Middle East conflict but did not rule out strikes. Britain withdrew staff from Tehran. China urged citizens to evacuate Iran. Australia directed departure of all Israel-based dependents. KLM suspended Tel Aviv flights. The authorized departure falls short of the ordered departure issued earlier this week for some US Embassy Beirut personnel, but represents the strongest signal yet that the administration is preparing for potential military action.
Bill Clinton Epstein Deposition: Historic Congressional Testimony Underway
Former President Bill Clinton began testifying behind closed doors on Feb 27 before the House Oversight Committee as part of its investigation into convicted sex offender Jeffrey Epstein. It marks the first time a former president has been compelled to testify before Congress — the last sitting or former president to do so voluntarily was Gerald Ford in 1983. The deposition is taking place at the Chappaqua Performing Arts Center in New York. It follows Hillary Clinton’s 6+ hour deposition on Feb 26, during which she said she never met Epstein and had no knowledge of his crimes. Committee Chair James Comer said Clinton flew on Epstein’s plane “at least 27 times” and that Epstein visited the White House 17 times. Rep. Robert Garcia, the top Democrat on the committee, called for Trump to also testify, citing Epstein files that reference Trump “almost more than anybody else.” The Clintons had initially refused subpoenas for months before relenting under threat of contempt of Congress proceedings. Neither Clinton has been accused of wrongdoing.
PPI Inflation Surge: January Data Crushes Expectations
The Bureau of Labor Statistics reported on Feb 27 that the Producer Price Index for final demand rose 0.5% in January, above the 0.3% consensus forecast. Core PPI, excluding food and energy, surged 0.8% — more than double the expected 0.3%. Year-over-year, headline PPI stood at 2.9% and core at 3.6%, both well above the Fed’s 2% target. The jump was driven by a 0.8% increase in final demand services, including a 14.4% surge in margins for professional and commercial equipment wholesaling — which economists flagged as potential evidence of tariff pass-through. Final demand goods actually fell 0.3%, with energy down 2.7% and food down 1.5%. Several PPI components feed into the PCE price index, the Fed’s preferred inflation measure, due March 13 ahead of the March 17–18 FOMC meeting. The Fed currently holds rates at 3.50–3.75%. Markets are now repricing expectations for rate cuts deeper into 2026.
Trump Tariffs: Section 122 Takes Effect, IEEPA Refund Battle Begins
The Trump administration’s replacement 10% global tariff under Section 122 of the Trade Act of 1974 took effect on Feb 24, four days after the Supreme Court struck down IEEPA tariffs in a 6-3 ruling (Learning Resources v. Trump). Over 1,000 companies, including Costco and FedEx, have filed lawsuits seeking refunds for IEEPA duties paid over the past year, with estimates exceeding $175 billion. USTR Jamieson Greer said the administration will maintain China tariffs at 35–50% using alternative authorities. Section 122 tariffs are capped at 15% and expire after 150 days (July 24) without congressional extension. The administration is pursuing Section 301 and Section 232 investigations as longer-term alternatives. Treasury Secretary Bessent said alternative authorities will produce “virtually unchanged tariff revenue in 2026.” The ruling has thrown 18 existing trade deals into legal uncertainty, as they were negotiated around IEEPA rates that no longer have legal force.
Pentagon Shoots Down Own Border Drone in Coordination Fiasco
The US military used a directed-energy laser on Feb 26 to shoot down a drone near the US-Mexico border at Fort Hancock, Texas, that turned out to belong to Customs and Border Protection. CBP had not notified the Pentagon it was flying a drone in the area. The FAA closed airspace below 18,000 feet over Fort Hancock through June 24. It was the second laser incident in two weeks: on Feb 11, CBP fired at what turned out to be party balloons near Fort Bliss, shutting down El Paso International Airport for hours. Democratic lawmakers called the incidents examples of “incompetence” and demanded Inspector General investigations across DOD, DHS, and DOT. Sen. Tammy Duckworth called the situation “alarming.” The Pentagon, CBP, and FAA issued a joint statement acknowledging the “engagement” but framing it as part of border security efforts against cartel drones.
Carney Lands in India: Trade Diversification Tour Begins
Canadian PM Mark Carney landed in Mumbai on Feb 27 to begin a 10-day trade mission covering India, Australia, and Japan — his first major Asia trip since his Davos speech urging middle powers to counter great-power coercion. The visit represents a dramatic reset of Canada-India relations, which froze in September 2023 after PM Trudeau alleged Indian involvement in the killing of Sikh activist Hardeep Singh Nijjar on Canadian soil. Relations thawed at the 2025 G7 summit in Alberta and the G20 in November, where Carney and Modi launched formal trade talks. Carney will spend two days in Mumbai meeting Indian business leaders before flying to Delhi on March 1 for meetings with Modi. Premiers Scott Moe (Saskatchewan) and Susan Holt (New Brunswick) joined the trip, signalling potential energy and natural resource deals. Canada is the world’s fourth-largest crude oil exporter and second-largest uranium producer. Officials on both sides said a comprehensive economic partnership could be reached within 12 months. Some Canadian Sikhs are protesting the trip, calling for a firmer stance on transnational repression.
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Sovereign & Credit Pulse
Sovereign & Credit Pulse
| Country | S&P | 10Y Yield | Signal |
|---|---|---|---|
| United States | AA+ | 4.22% | Hot PPI complicates rate cut timeline; IEEPA refund liability could pressure Treasury; tariff policy uncertainty weighs on business confidence |
| Canada | AAA | 3.15% | Trade diversification push underway; Section 122 tariffs add headwinds; BoC rate at 2.75% after January cut; India trip could yield resource export wins |
| Mexico | BBB | 9.60% | Border drone incidents spotlight cross-border security coordination gaps; Section 122 tariffs apply; USMCA review looms in 2026 |
| Cuba | N/R | N/A | Canada announces C$8M humanitarian aid amid worsening food, fuel, and power crisis; IEEPA executive order on Cuba (Feb 6) threatened but did not impose tariffs |
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Power Players
Power Players
Donald Trump
President, United States
Weighing military options on Iran while maintaining diplomatic track; replaced IEEPA tariffs with Section 122 within hours of Supreme Court loss; threatening 15% escalation; delivered State of the Union Feb 24 defending tariff agenda; administration faces interagency coordination failures on border drone operations.
Bill Clinton
Former President, United States
Testifying under subpoena in Epstein probe — first former president compelled to appear before Congress; acknowledged Epstein plane flights and White House visits in prior declarations; denied knowledge of crimes; resisted subpoena for seven months before contempt threat forced compliance.
Mark Carney
PM, Canada
Landed in Mumbai for historic India trade reset; pursuing comprehensive economic partnership within 12 months; balancing trade diversification from US with Sikh community concerns over diplomatic reset with Modi; brought provincial premiers to signal resource export deals on energy, uranium, critical minerals.
Jack Dorsey
CEO, Block
Cut 4,000 of 10,000 employees — nearly half the workforce — citing AI “intelligence tools”; stock surged ~20%; predicted most companies will follow within a year; executed cuts from position of strength (24% YoY gross profit growth); largest single AI-attributed layoff in tech history.
James Comer
Chair, House Oversight Committee (R-KY)
Spearheading Epstein investigation; secured both Clinton depositions after seven-month standoff; pledged to release video and transcripts within days; said Commerce Secretary Lutnick “very possibly” will be called to testify after Epstein island visit emerged; facing Democratic pressure to also subpoena Trump.
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Regulatory & Policy Watch
Regulatory & Policy Watch
TARIFFS
Section 122 global 10% tariff in effect since Feb 24. Capped at 15%, expires July 24 without congressional extension. Exemptions include critical minerals, energy products, pharmaceuticals, certain electronics, agricultural products. Section 232 and 301 tariffs unaffected by SCOTUS ruling. USTR launching Section 301 investigations for longer-term authority.
Section 122 global 10% tariff in effect since Feb 24. Capped at 15%, expires July 24 without congressional extension. Exemptions include critical minerals, energy products, pharmaceuticals, certain electronics, agricultural products. Section 232 and 301 tariffs unaffected by SCOTUS ruling. USTR launching Section 301 investigations for longer-term authority.
FED POLICY
Fed funds rate at 3.50–3.75%. Hot January PPI pushes rate cut expectations further out. Core PCE due March 13 is next critical data point. FOMC meets March 17–18; market pricing for hold has strengthened. Weekly jobless claims at 212,000 (vs 215K expected) suggest labor market still tight.
Fed funds rate at 3.50–3.75%. Hot January PPI pushes rate cut expectations further out. Core PCE due March 13 is next critical data point. FOMC meets March 17–18; market pricing for hold has strengthened. Weekly jobless claims at 212,000 (vs 215K expected) suggest labor market still tight.
CANADA TRADE
Carney pursuing India comprehensive economic partnership covering goods, services, agriculture, digital trade, mobility. Canada-India trade talks formally launched at G20 November 2025. BoC rate at 2.75% after January cut. Canada announced C$8M humanitarian aid to Cuba for food and nutrition support.
Carney pursuing India comprehensive economic partnership covering goods, services, agriculture, digital trade, mobility. Canada-India trade talks formally launched at G20 November 2025. BoC rate at 2.75% after January cut. Canada announced C$8M humanitarian aid to Cuba for food and nutrition support.
BORDER SECURITY
Counter-drone coordination failures exposed by second laser incident in two weeks. Pentagon’s Joint Interagency Task Force 401 launched new C-UAS procurement marketplace Feb 24. Democrats demand bipartisan bill to train operators and fix FAA-Pentagon-DHS coordination. 27,000+ cartel drones detected near border in H1 2024.
Counter-drone coordination failures exposed by second laser incident in two weeks. Pentagon’s Joint Interagency Task Force 401 launched new C-UAS procurement marketplace Feb 24. Democrats demand bipartisan bill to train operators and fix FAA-Pentagon-DHS coordination. 27,000+ cartel drones detected near border in H1 2024.
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Calendar & Watchlist
Calendar & Watchlist
| Date | Event | Why It Matters |
|---|---|---|
| Mar 1 | Carney meets Modi in Delhi | Centrepiece of India trade reset; energy and minerals deals expected |
| Mar 13 | January PCE Price Index | Fed’s preferred inflation gauge; hot PPI raises bar for dovish case |
| Mar 17–18 | FOMC meeting | Rate decision; markets now pricing extended hold at 3.50–3.75% |
| Early Mar | US-Iran fourth round of talks (tentative) | Omani and Iranian officials said more talks planned; US hasn’t confirmed |
| May | Block Q1 earnings | Test of AI restructuring thesis; if margins expand, expect copycat layoffs |
| Jul 24 | Section 122 tariff expiration | 150-day statutory limit; Congress must extend or admin needs alternative authority |
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Bottom Line
Bottom Line
The United States is navigating simultaneous crises across three domains today — geopolitical, economic, and institutional — and the common thread is that the margin for error has collapsed. In the Persian Gulf, the gap between diplomacy and military action narrowed dramatically when the State Department told embassy staff in Israel to leave “today.” That single word, capitalised in Ambassador Huckabee’s email, carries more strategic weight than any press briefing. When a country evacuates its own diplomats from an ally’s territory, it is not engaging in routine contingency planning. It is clearing the deck.
On the economic front, the PPI print didn’t just miss expectations — it demolished them. Core wholesale inflation at 0.8% monthly, nearly triple the forecast, is the kind of data that doesn’t just push rate cuts back by a meeting or two. It forces a fundamental reconsideration of where the Fed funds rate needs to be. The S&P 500 is now negative for the year, the AI trade that powered the past two years is unwinding, and Jack Dorsey’s decision to fire half of Block’s workforce — while framing it as an AI inevitability — is either visionary or a harbinger of an employment crisis that no central bank can solve with interest rates.
Meanwhile, on Capitol Hill, a former president is under oath answering questions about his connections to a convicted sex trafficker, and across the continent, Canada’s prime minister just landed in Mumbai to build the trade relationships his country will need if it can no longer depend on the one next door. These stories feel disconnected until you recognise the thread: every institution — the presidency, the Fed, the trade architecture, the military chain of command, the diplomatic framework — is being stress-tested simultaneously, and the people running them are improvising. The next three weeks, from PCE to the FOMC to whatever happens with Iran, will determine whether the improvisation holds or breaks.