Standing on the White House lawn before boarding Marine One, President Donald Trump told reporters that something extraordinary might be coming for Cuba. He described Secretary of State Marco Rubio as leading negotiations at a very high level and suggested the United States could carry out a friendly takeover of the island.
Trump offered no specifics. But his remarks on February 27 signaled that Washington views the crisis on the communist island as approaching a decisive moment.
Secret Talks and Silent Channels
Cuba’s government has denied high-level negotiations are underway, but has not denied reports that U.S. officials are in contact with Raul Guillermo Rodriguez Castro, the grandson of former president Raul Castro. Axios reported that Rubio had been holding secret talks with the younger Castro. The Miami Herald then reported that officials close to Rubio met with him again at a Caribbean Community conference in St. Kitts and Nevis on February 25.
Cuba’s deputy foreign minister posted on X that the fuel embargo remains in full force and its impact as collective punishment is unwavering, then deleted the message. The mixed signals suggest a regime under extraordinary pressure but unwilling to publicly acknowledge its engagement with Washington.
Deadly Confrontation at Sea
Trump’s remarks came two days after one of the deadliest maritime confrontations between Cuba and U.S.-linked actors in decades. On February 25, Cuban border guards intercepted a stolen Florida-registered speedboat carrying 10 armed Cuban exiles near Cayo Falcones, off Villa Clara province. Cuba’s Interior Ministry said the passengers opened fire first, wounding the patrol commander. Cuban forces returned fire, killing four and wounding six.
Among the dead was at least one U.S. citizen. Cuban authorities said the group carried assault rifles, handguns, homemade explosives, and bulletproof vests, and accused them of planning an armed infiltration for terrorist purposes. The Washington Post linked the group to Autodefensa del Pueblo, a small militant exile organization based in Florida. Rubio denied U.S. government involvement.
Pressure Campaign in Full Force
The incident unfolded against Washington’s most aggressive pressure campaign on Cuba since the missile crisis. After U.S. forces captured Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro in January, Trump signed an executive order threatening tariffs on any nation selling fuel to the island. Mexico halted shipments. Cuba has lost roughly 90% of its fuel supply, triggering blackouts of up to 20 hours outside Havana.
On February 25, the U.S. Treasury issued a license allowing Venezuelan oil to be resold to Cuba’s private sector, barring transactions with the government or military. The administration also announced $6 million in humanitarian aid distributed through the Catholic Church. Critics see the moves as designed to weaken the state while cultivating the private sector and exile community.
What Does It Mean?
Trump did not define friendly takeover. He described Cuba as a failing nation with no money, no oil, and no food, and said it could be something very positive for exiles. More than 40 U.S. civil society organizations sent a letter to Congress the same day urging the administration to reverse course. Whatever the phrase means, the pressure on Havana has never been greater.