Gold surged 2.22% to $5,106.73 — its highest close since the late-January sell-off — as three catalysts converged in a single session: SCOTUS tariff ruling, stagflation data, and Iran military escalation. The combination of dollar weakness (SCOTUS), safe-haven demand (Iran), and rate-cut hopes (weak GDP) created a triple bid for bullion. Gold futures rose 2.2% to $5,108.15.
Silver exploded 7.74% to $84.571 — its best single-session gain since the January squeeze — reclaiming the Kijun-sen and closing right at the Ichimoku cloud base. Platinum also surged 5.3% to $2,178.55. Silver’s outperformance compressed the gold/silver ratio from 63.6:1 to 60.4:1 in a single session, confirming that industrial demand and physical scarcity are reasserting themselves after the February correction.
Raymond James stated a US military operation on Iran is “likely at this stage” — the strongest language yet from a major Wall Street firm on the geopolitical escalation. ING noted that markets remain sensitive to US-Iran talks, with uncertainty keeping gold well-supported near records. The underlying outlook remains constructive on geopolitical risk, expected rate cuts, and continued central-bank demand.
Session Data
| Asset | Price | Change |
|---|---|---|
| Gold Spot (Capital.com close) | $5,106.73 | +2.22% |
| Gold Futures (GC) | $5,108.15 | +2.20% |
| Gold Perpetual | $5,109.64 | +1.97% |
| Silver Spot (Capital.com close) | $84.571 | +7.74% |
| Silver Perpetual | $84.57 | +7.17% |
| Gold/Silver Ratio | 60.4:1 | from 63.6:1 |
| Platinum | $2,178.55 | +5.30% |
| PAXG (tokenized gold) | $5,121.55 | +2.03% |
| XAUT (Tether Gold) | $5,088.90 | +1.92% |
| DXY | 97.80 | −0.04% |
| 10Y UST Yield | 4.086% | +1bp |
| Brent Crude | $72.13 | +0.70% |
Market Commentary
February 20 was the session precious metals bulls have been waiting for. Three catalysts converged to create the most powerful bid for gold and silver since the January highs. First, the US Q4 GDP came in at a weak 1.4% (vs 2.5% expected) while core PCE surprised at 3.0% — a stagflationary mix that historically favors gold. Second, the Supreme Court’s 6–3 ruling striking down IEEPA tariffs slid the dollar and opened a $175 billion refund liability for the Treasury. Third, Raymond James became the first major Wall Street firm to state a US military operation on Iran was “likely at this stage,” escalating the geopolitical premium.
Gold responded by blasting through $5,100, closing at $5,106.73 — its highest level since the late-January sell-off and just 8% below the all-time high near $5,500. ING summarized the institutional view: the underlying outlook remains constructive, with geopolitical risks, rate-cut expectations, and central-bank demand all underpinning prices. Goldman Sachs maintains gold will grind toward $5,400 by year-end, driven by structural central-bank purchases reaccelerating alongside private-sector demand if the Fed cuts rates.
Silver’s 7.74% explosion was the day’s standout. The white metal surged from $78.50 to $84.57, its best session since the January squeeze. The move compressed the gold/silver ratio from 63.6:1 to 60.4:1 in a single day — a powerful signal that silver’s industrial demand base (solar, EV, AI hardware) is reasserting pricing power after the February correction. Platinum’s 5.3% surge to $2,178.55 confirmed the move was broad-based across precious metals, not just gold.
The structural silver story remains intact: the Silver Institute confirmed a sixth consecutive supply deficit of 67 million ounces for 2026, cumulative deficits now exceed 820 million ounces since 2021, and industrial fabrication is 60% of total demand. BofA’s Michael Widmer maintains his $135–$309 forecast based on ratio compression. J.P. Morgan sees silver averaging $81/oz for 2026. The $80 level has transformed from resistance to a “new normal” floor after silver’s rollercoaster from $121 ATH to $68 low and back.
Technical Analysis
Gold — Daily: O: 4,995.94 / H: 5,107.87 / L: 4,981.52 / C: 5,106.73 (+110.70, +2.22%). A massive bullish engulfing candle that opened near $5,000 and closed near the session high above $5,100. This is gold’s strongest single-session advance of February and decisively reclaims the $5,000 psychological level.
Ichimoku for gold is now the most bullish configuration of 2026. Price at $5,106.73 sits above the Tenkan-sen (5,013.53), Kijun-sen (5,002.52), and the entire cloud (4,979.92–4,989.96). The cloud is thin and flat — minimal resistance overhead from the Ichimoku system. The 200-SMA at 3,910.82 sits 30.6% below spot, confirming the long-term uptrend’s strength. MACD line (98.22) remains above the signal (82.21), though the histogram at −16.01 continues to narrow (from −21.45 yesterday). RSI at 57.60 (signal 55.03) has room to run before overbought territory.
Silver — Daily: O: 78.498 / H: 84.671 / L: 77.420 / C: 84.571 (+6.074, +7.74%). A massive bullish candle that gapped above the previous session’s range and closed at the high. This is the kind of capitulation-reversal candle that marks the end of corrections.
Silver’s Ichimoku has dramatically improved. Price at 84.571 has reclaimed the Kijun-sen (84.571 — exact match) and now sits just below the cloud base at 85.964–86.287. A close above $86 would put silver back inside the cloud for the first time since the January correction — a necessary step toward bullish structure. MACD at −1.019 / signal −1.909 / histogram −0.890 remains bearish but narrowing rapidly. RSI surged from 47.04 to 51.57, reclaiming neutral territory. The 200-SMA at 52.337 (61% below spot) confirms the secular uptrend. Bollinger upper band at 113.716 indicates enormous range expansion potential.
| Level | Gold | Silver | Source |
|---|---|---|---|
| Resistance 3 | $5,500 | $92.83 | ATH zone / Jan high |
| Resistance 2 | $5,350.51 | $89.607 | BB upper / prior swing |
| Resistance 1 | $5,107.87 | $85.964–$86.287 | Session high / Cloud base |
| Spot | $5,106.73 | $84.571 | Feb 20 close |
| Support 1 | $5,013.53 | $81.684 | Tenkan-sen |
| Support 2 | $5,002.52 | $79.098 | Kijun-sen / BB mid |
| Support 3 | $4,883.92 | $78.657 | Prior swing low zone |
| Support 4 | $4,676.54 | $58.859 | BB lower band |
Forward Look
Iran 10–15 day decision window: Trump’s Feb 19 ultimatum puts the decision point in early March. Raymond James called military action “likely at this stage.” A strike would send gold toward the $5,500 ATH immediately and potentially beyond. Even a diplomatic resolution keeps the geopolitical bid intact until the deadline passes.
Silver cloud reclaim — $86 is the key level: Silver closed at $84.57, just 1.7% below the Ichimoku cloud base at $85.96. A close above $86 would be the first re-entry into the cloud since the January correction and signal the beginning of technical repair. The prior resistance zone at $89–$93 would become the next target.
Institutional consensus rising: J.P. Morgan raised gold YE to $6,300. Goldman Sachs targets $5,400 with “significant upside risk.” UBS sees $6,000 base / $7,200 in geopolitical escalation. For silver: BofA $135–$309, J.P. Morgan $81 average. The consensus range has shifted materially higher since January.
Stagflation tailwind: Q4 GDP 1.4% + core PCE 3.0% = the textbook environment for gold. Weak growth compresses the dollar and supports rate-cut expectations; sticky inflation preserves the inflation-hedge bid. If this macro regime persists, gold’s fundamental floor rises regardless of geopolitics.
Three catalysts in one session produced the day the bulls have been waiting for. Gold reclaimed $5,100; silver reclaimed the Kijun-sen with its best gain since January. The question now: was this the correction’s end or a one-day wonder?
The case for continuation is strong. Gold’s Ichimoku is the most bullish of 2026 — price above all components for the first time since the January sell-off. RSI at 57.60 has room to run. The MACD histogram, while still negative, has narrowed for three consecutive sessions, and the MACD line is well above the signal. Three structural tailwinds remain: central-bank buying (585 tonnes projected quarterly), geopolitical premium (Iran decision window imminent), and stagflation data (1.4% GDP / 3.0% PCE) that the Fed cannot easily address.
Silver’s 7.74% surge is the most significant technical event since the January correction began. The Kijun-sen reclaim, ratio compression to 60.4:1, and RSI’s return above 50 all point to the correction’s base-building phase transitioning to recovery. The cloud base at $86 is the gate — a close above it would confirm. Physical market conditions (lease rates above 5%, 6th consecutive deficit, industrial buyers defending $76–$80) provide the fundamental floor.
Technical bias — Gold: Bullish above $5,000; Neutral $4,884–$5,000; Bearish below $4,884. Silver: Bullish above $86 (cloud); Neutral $79–$86; Bearish below $79.