For decades, Pemex did almost everything alone. It explored, drilled, produced, refined and exported Mexico’s oil with minimal private participation, built atop the bounty of shallow-water giants like Cantarell and Ku-Maloob-Zaap. That model is now mathematically unsustainable. With production at its lowest level since 1980 and its flagship fields in accelerating decline, the state oil company is making its most significant bet on private partnerships in a generation — and the government expects those partnerships to deliver at least a fifth of national output over the coming decade.
Pemex reported average production of 1.63 million barrels per day in 2025, down 7% year on year. The Ku-Maloob-Zaap complex, which once produced 875,000 bpd, has fallen to around 539,000 — a 17-year low. Cantarell, the legendary field that peaked above 2 million bpd two decades ago, now yields roughly 66,000. The government’s target of sustaining 1.8 million bpd through the decade requires not just halting the decline but reversing it.
Mixed Contracts, Modest Scale
The centerpiece of Pemex’s diversification strategy is a slate of mixed contracts that allow private companies to develop fields alongside the state firm. Seven contracts have been formally awarded, with durations of 9 to 20 years, covering onshore fields across northern and southern Mexico. Winners include Consorcio 5M del Golfo, Geolis, Petrolera Miahuapán and GSM Bronco, a subsidiary of Carlos Slim’s Grupo Carso. Pemex originally identified 21 potential mixed-contract projects capable of delivering up to 450,000 bpd at peak.
The reality so far is more modest. Analysts at IMCO estimate the awarded contracts will contribute around 64,000 bpd — a fraction of what is needed to offset natural decline. Gonzalo Monroy of consultancy GMEC warned that the contracts are insufficient to compensate for losses at Ku-Maloob-Zaap alone. Energy analyst Ramsés Pech argued that Pemex should prioritize fields in low-permeability formations and expand the number of contracts, particularly with international firms that bring specialized technology.
Trión: The Deepwater Gamble
The higher-profile bet is the Trión field, located 180 kilometers off Tamaulipas at a water depth of 2,500 meters in the Perdido Fold Belt. Operated by Australia’s Woodside Energy with a 60% stake to Pemex’s 40%, it will be Mexico’s first ultra-deepwater production when it comes online in 2028. The project targets 100,000 bpd of low-sulfur crude from 18 wells connected to a floating production unit being built in South Korea. Total capital expenditure is estimated at $7.2 billion. SLB won the drilling contract, with services beginning in early 2026.
Pemex has also committed $680 million to explore adjacent deepwater blocks in the Perdido region, though Shell, Chevron, Repsol and Petronas have all relinquished exploration rights nearby, citing insufficient reserves.
A Geographic Shift
The production map is already changing. The traditional northeastern marine region, home to Cantarell and Ku-Maloob-Zaap, has shrunk from 50% to 39% of national output over the past decade. Onshore regions in the north and south have picked up the slack, rising from 22% to 36%, with combined production of roughly 590,000 bpd. This geographic rebalancing reflects both the decline of aging offshore assets and the incremental gains from land-based operations where mixed contracts are concentrated.
The question is whether the pace of new barrels can outrun the decline of old ones. With fewer than 30 drilling rigs active across the entire country — a level last seen during the 2014 price collapse — and a debt load exceeding $100 billion, Pemex’s margin for error is vanishingly thin. The mixed contracts and Trión represent the right strategic direction, but the gap between ambition and execution remains the defining challenge of Mexico’s oil sector.