One in Three Latin Americans Wants to Leave: UN 2026 Report
Key Facts
—The headline number: 32% of Latin Americans say they want to live or work abroad within the next three years, up from 21% in 2004, according to the United Nations Development Programme (UNDP) Democracy and Development 2026 report.
—The country leaders: Haiti tops the list at 74.6% of the population intending to emigrate, followed by Jamaica (54.3%) and Suriname (45.7%).
—The paradox: In the same year, 51.4% of Latin Americans considered the arrival of immigrants in their own country to be harmful, the highest reading on record.
—The flow: Intra-regional migration has nearly quadrupled, from 3.7 million people in 1990 to 14 million in 2024. The sharpest jump came between 2015 and 2020, when the figure rose 84% in five years.
—The institutional backdrop: Trust in electoral authorities fell from 47% in 2016 to 34% in 2024. Belief that elections are fraudulent rose from 48.5% to 60.6%. Four of the world’s ten countries with the highest political-violence levels are in Latin America.
A third of Latin America wants out. Half of those who stay reject the neighbours who do exactly the same. The contradiction at the heart of the UNDP’s 2026 report describes a region whose institutions have stopped delivering, whose citizens distrust elections, and whose flight is no longer measured in trips to Miami but in routes between Caracas, Lima, and Santiago.
What does the UNDP report actually say?
The UNDP launched the report “Democracies Under Pressure: Reimagining the Futures of Democracy and Development in Latin America and the Caribbean” in Montevideo on May 11, alongside Uruguayan president Yamandú Orsi. The Rio Times, the Latin American financial news outlet, reports that the document updates a foundational 2004 UNDP study and centres on a single diagnosis: Latin America remains the most democratic developing region in the world, but its institutions are eroding from within. UNDP regional chief economist Almudena Fernández said: “Parallel to the process of democratic consolidation, major development gains were achieved. But that trajectory has proved fragile, unequal, and at this moment vulnerable to setbacks.”
The report dedicates an extensive chapter to human mobility, framing it as the most sensitive indicator of how citizens read their own governments. Rising intention to emigrate has tracked closely with rising dissatisfaction with democracy, declining institutional trust, and a sharpening perception of economic decline. UNDP describes the regional state as one whose citizens are simultaneously fleeing and refusing entry to those fleeing from elsewhere.
Why are so many Latin Americans trying to leave?
UNDP ties the rise in emigration intent directly to three structural drivers. First, economic underperformance: the UN Economic Commission for Latin America (CEPAL) describes the region as caught in a “low-growth trap,” with output expanding only 2.2 to 2.4% in 2025-2026, insufficient to generate quality employment, reduce poverty meaningfully, or close inequality gaps. Adjusted for inequality, the regional Human Development Index falls 21%. The top 10% capture nearly 37% of regional income, against 13% for the poorest half.
Second, violence: 108,838 homicides were recorded in Latin America and the Caribbean in 2025, according to InSight Crime, with a median rate of 17.6 per 100,000 inhabitants, three times the global average. Haiti led at 68 homicides per 100,000, Ecuador second at 50.9. Guayaquil recorded 741 homicides in the first quarter of 2025 alone; Mexico tallied 6,799. Four of the world’s ten most violent conflict zones in 2025, according to the ACLED project, are in Latin America. Organised crime, including the Tren de Aragua and the Primeiro Comando da Capital, has expanded across borders.
Third, institutional collapse: trust in electoral authorities fell from 47% in 2016 to 34% in 2024, and the share of citizens who believe their elections are fraudulent rose from 48.5% to 60.6%. According to V-Dem polarisation data cited by UNDP, Latin America registers the highest political polarisation in the world, at 3.4 on a 4-point scale, above Eastern Europe and Asia-Pacific.
How has the geography of migration changed?
The UNDP report documents a historic shift in destinations. For decades, the canonical migration vector pointed at the United States, Spain, and Portugal. The data now describe a continent moving within itself. Intra-regional migrants rose from 3.7 million in 1990 to 14 million in 2024, a fourfold increase driven primarily by the Venezuelan exodus that began after 2015 and intensified under U.S. and European tightening since 2025. The five-year window from 2015 to 2020 alone added an 84% increase in intra-regional flows. Colombia, Peru, Chile, Argentina, Brazil, the Dominican Republic, and Mexico now host the largest stocks, reorganising labour markets and remittance corridors across the region.
The numbers behind the paradox
| Indicator | 2004 / 2016 | 2023 / 2024 |
|---|---|---|
| Want to emigrate within 3 years | 21% (2004) | 32% (2023) |
| Consider immigration harmful | n.a. | 51.4% (2024) |
| Trust in electoral authorities | 47% (2016) | 34% (2024) |
| Believe elections are fraudulent | 48.5% (2016) | 60.6% (2024) |
| Intra-regional migrants | 3.7 million (1990) | 14 million (2024) |
| Top emigration intent | — | Haiti 74.6%, Jamaica 54.3%, Suriname 45.7% |
| Highest 2025 homicide rate per 100k | — | Haiti 68, Ecuador 50.9 |
The exception is El Salvador, whose homicide rate dropped from 62 per 100,000 in 2017 to 1.3 in 2025, the lowest in Latin America, after President Nayib Bukele’s mass-incarceration approach. The case is read across the region as evidence that violence can be reduced rapidly, though at a cost to civil liberties that the UNDP report flags as a parallel democratic risk.
Why does the rejection of immigrants matter?
UNDP describes the 51.4% rejection figure as the trigger for a feedback loop that erodes democracy from within. Public discourse increasingly criminalises migrants, reinforcing an “us-versus-them” logic that the report warns undermines the democratic contract. The political consequences are visible: the rise of anti-migrant platforms across Argentina, Chile, Peru, and the Dominican Republic; the December 2025 closure of large parts of the Darién migration corridor by Panama; and the 2025-2026 escalation of restrictive measures in the United States that has rebounded flows inside Latin America itself.
UNDP calls for strengthening electoral autonomy, rebuilding political representation, limiting economic capture of political processes, and protecting the information ecosystem from disinformation. Latin American social media users now distrust the platforms that have become their main information source, a paradox the report attributes to algorithmic amplification and AI-driven manipulation of public deliberation.
What should investors and policymakers watch next?
- Peru runoff (June 7). Keiko Fujimori versus Rafael López Aliaga will test whether anti-incumbent emigration sentiment translates into a hardened security mandate.
- Brazil and Mexico elections in 2026. Both will be read for whether centrist coalitions can rebuild trust before democratic erosion deepens.
- Venezuelan post-Maduro flows. Cuba’s energy collapse and Venezuela’s post-Maduro political reorganisation could trigger new waves of departure or, alternatively, return migration.
- Bukele template adoption. Several presidential candidates across the region are running on explicit replication of El Salvador’s mass-incarceration model. Adoption rates will reshape regional civil-liberty baselines.
- U.S. deportation policy. The Trump administration’s enforcement posture will be the largest external variable for intra-regional flows through 2027.
Frequently Asked Questions
Why does Haiti top the emigration list?
Haiti combines the region’s highest homicide rate (68 per 100,000), state collapse following the 2021 assassination of President Jovenel Moïse, and ongoing gang control of large parts of Port-au-Prince. Three-quarters of the population reporting emigration intent reflects the absence of a functioning state more than discontent with policy.
Why are intra-regional flows growing fastest?
U.S. and European border policy has tightened substantially since 2025, raising the cost and risk of long-distance migration. Neighbouring countries are easier to reach, often with weaker entry controls. The Venezuelan exodus alone accounts for several million of the additional 10 million intra-regional migrants since 1990.
Is the region still a democracy?
UNDP describes Latin America as the most democratic developing region in the world, with more than four of every five citizens living under elected governments. The threat the report describes is not collapse but gradual erosion through weakened checks and balances, personalist leadership, polarisation, and capture of institutions by organised economic interests.
Connected Coverage
The migration data interlocks with three running clusters in our coverage. The Venezuelan exodus and its political reorganisation sit in our Venezuela transition tracker. The Bukele security model and its export to Ecuador and Peru sit in our Bukele export analysis. The Cuba energy collapse, which threatens the next migration wave, sits in our CIA-in-Havana readout. The Peru runoff that will read directly against this data sits in our Peru runoff analysis.
Reported by The Rio Times — Latin American financial news. Filed May 15, 2026.