A recent Genial/Quaest poll conducted in late May 2025 reveals a significant drop in support for President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva’s re-election campaign.
The survey, which interviewed 2,004 people across 120 Brazilian cities, found that 66% of respondents do not want Lula to run for another term in 2026. Only 32% support his candidacy, a notable decline from earlier this year.
The poll’s margin of error is two percentage points. Lula’s disapproval rating has reached 57%, the highest of his current term. His support has eroded as Brazil faces persistent economic challenges, including high food prices and sluggish growth, projected between 1.6% and 2.3% for the year.
While real wages have increased by 3% and agricultural output remains robust, these improvements have not translated into broader approval for the president.
Lula’s government also struggles to pass key reforms in a conservative-leaning Congress, further limiting his ability to deliver on campaign promises. Simulated runoff polls show Lula either tied or trailing against leading opposition figures.
These include São Paulo Governor Tarcísio de Freitas, former President Jair Bolsonaro, Michelle Bolsonaro, Paraná Governor Ratinho Junior, and Rio Grande do Sul Governor Eduardo Leite.
The poll also indicates that two-thirds of Brazilians want neither Lula nor Bolsonaro to run in 2026. Bolsonaro remains ineligible for office until 2030, but 65% of respondents feel he should step aside and support another candidate.
Recent local election results have amplified concerns for Lula’s Workers’ Party. Conservative and anti-establishment candidates performed well in key cities, while Lula-backed candidates struggled.
The party lacks a clear successor, and Lula’s age—he will be 79 in 2026—adds uncertainty about its future leadership. For business and investors, these trends signal potential shifts in Brazil’s policy direction.
The next president will shape fiscal rules, inflation, and investment conditions in Latin America’s largest economy. With both Lula and Bolsonaro facing high rejection, Brazil’s political landscape appears open to new contenders, which could have lasting impacts on the country’s economic stability.