BMV / S&P/BMV IPC Daily Report · March 5, 2026 · Covering March 4 Session
The Big Three
IPC rebounds +2.91% to 70,428, nearly erasing Tuesday’s entire 2.94% loss in a single session. The index opened at 68,447.86 — right at Tuesday’s close of 68,511.98 — and rallied steadily to a session high of 70,513.20, closing at 70,428.03 — its best day since the Iran-shock selloff began. The catalyst was a New York Times report that Iranian officials had contacted U.S. intermediaries seeking a negotiated exit to the conflict, dragging the DXY off its intraday peak of 99.32 and prompting a global unwinding of the risk-off trade. The IPC now sits 2.3% below its all-time high of 72,111.41 set on February 12.
Peso firms to 17.57 per dollar — seventh-strongest emerging market currency on the day — as Banxico’s 7.00% rate hold anchors carry-trade flows. The USD/MXN fell 0.79% to 17.57 from a prior close of 17.71, with Group Financiero Monex noting the peso ranked seventh among EM currencies in gains vs. the dollar on March 4. Banxico’s unanimous February 5 pause at 7.00% — after 12 consecutive cuts from a peak of 11.00% — preserved Mexico’s real rate differential and kept speculative long-peso positions intact even during the Hormuz spike.
Mining and energy heavyweights GMéxico and América Móvil lead the recovery, though the IPC remains 2.3% below its February ATH. With GMéxico (GMEXICO/B) and América Móvil (AMX/B) the index’s two largest components by market cap, the partial Brent correction to $81.65 and the copper price stabilization drove a broad recovery in materials. The IPC’s 52-week range of 49,799–72,111 underscores the scale of the 2025–2026 bull run; at 70,428, the index is still up approximately 30.95% year-over-year.
Market Snapshot
| Metric | Value | Change |
| IPC Close | 70,428.03 | +2.91% |
| Session High | 70,513.20 | intraday |
| Session Low | 68,394.69 | intraday |
| USD/MXN (close) | 17.57 | −0.79% |
| Banxico FIX Rate (Mar 4) | 17.7228 | official reference |
| Banxico Policy Rate | 7.00% | on hold (Feb 5) |
| Brent Crude | $81.65 | +32% YTD |
| S&P 500 | 6,816.63 | −0.94% (Mar 3) |
| VIX | 25.95 | elevated |
| ATH (Feb 12, 2026) | 72,111.41 | −2.3% from ATH |
| IPC 52-wk Low | 49,799.28 | +41.4% from low |
Equities — Key Movers
| Ticker | Note | Context |
| GMEXICO/B (Grupo México) | largest cap | copper + rail recovery |
| AMX/B (América Móvil) | 2nd largest cap | peso strength lifts |
| WALMEX (Walmart México) | 3rd largest cap | defensive consumer bid |
| PE&OLES (Peñoles) | +246% YTD leader | silver/gold surge |
| LAB/B (Laboratorios) | −30% YTD laggard | sector headwinds |
| ASUR/B (Grupo Aeroportuario) | top pick 2026 | World Cup tourism play |
Currency
The peso recovered sharply on March 4, closing at 17.57 MXN per dollar — a 0.79% appreciation from the prior session’s close of 17.71. The official Banxico FIX rate published for March 4 was 17.7228. This partial recovery follows a brutal stretch for the currency: in the week ending March 4, the dollar had gained 2.07% against the peso as Iran-shock risk aversion and global dollar strength drove USD/MXN as high as 17.71. Grupo Financiero Monex noted the peso ranked seventh among emerging market currencies in daily gains against the dollar on March 4, aided by the partial retreat of the DXY from intraday highs of 99.32.
The structural backdrop for the peso remains challenging. Remittances from Mexicans in the United States fell 1.4% in January 2026, with the real decline reaching 18.4% when adjusted for the exchange rate and inflation, reflecting Trump’s anti-immigration policies. Year-end analyst forecasts for USD/MXN cluster between 19.30 (Banorte) and 20.50 (Banxico survey), with Hacienda projecting 19.70 — all significantly weaker than current levels. Near-term carry support from the 7.00% Banxico rate helps, but a prolonged Hormuz conflict or further deterioration in U.S.-Mexico trade relations could rapidly reset the peso to those forecasted levels.
Technical Analysis
Daily Chart (1D):
Wednesday’s +2.91% candle is the single most technically important session since the Iran-shock began. The IPC opened at the March 3 close zone (68,447.86) and drove all the way to 70,513.20 intraday — almost perfectly recapturing the Tuesday session high of 70,241.89 and closing at 70,428.03. Critically, the close sits back above the cluster of short-to-medium-term moving averages visible on the chart (the Ichimoku Tenkan/Kijun complex around 69,400–69,500), suggesting the two-day selloff may have been a wick rather than a structural break.
The MACD histogram is a mild negative at −335.41, with the MACD line at 840.02 and signal at 504.60. Notably, both lines remain well above zero — a stark contrast to the deeply negative MACD readings seen in the COLCAP and Ibovespa. This tells a different story for Mexico: the underlying momentum structure is still bullish and the histogram’s mild negative reading reflects only a short-term pause, not a trend reversal. The RSI fast line is at 58.81 and the slow at 52.50 — mid-range neutral, giving the index ample room to re-accelerate without hitting overbought conditions. The long-term ascending blue trendline on the chart sits near 62,052 and continues to slope upward, confirming the secular bull structure is intact.
Key Levels
| Level | Points | Reference |
| R3 | 72,111 | All-time high (Feb 12) |
| R2 | 71,601 | 2026 YTD high (Infobae) |
| R1 | 70,513 | March 4 session high |
| Current | 70,428 | March 4 close |
| S1 | 69,400–69,500 | Ichimoku cloud top / MA cluster |
| S2 | 68,394 | March 4 session low |
| S3 | 64,141 | 2026 YTD low |
| S4 | 62,052 | Long-term ascending trendline |
Global Context
The geopolitical trigger for Wednesday’s recovery was a report by The New York Times that Iranian officials had made contact with U.S. intermediaries to explore a negotiated resolution to the Hormuz conflict. This news hit midday and drove the DXY off its 99.32 intraday peak, pushing EM currencies and equities sharply higher. Brent crude settled at $81.65 — elevated but off its $82+ extremes — as OPEC’s decision to add 206,000 barrels per day for April 2026 also applied modest downward pressure on oil. U.S. crude inventories rose 3.5 million barrels per the EIA report, an additional bearish oil datapoint that helped cap Brent.
For Mexico specifically, the oil shock is a double-edged story. Unlike Colombia or Brazil, Mexico has a large refining sector and is a net energy importer at the margin, meaning sustained Brent above $80 raises domestic fuel costs. Pemex — which returned to the domestic debt market in February 2026 with a bond issuance to “optimize its financial profile and address 2026 commitments” — is already under heavy financial strain. Higher oil prices boost export revenues nominally but do not necessarily translate into Pemex profitability given its debt load and production challenges.
China’s National People’s Congress opened March 5, with the growth target announcement as the key macro catalyst for the week. Strong stimulus signals from Beijing would benefit Mexico through copper (GMéxico/Grupo Peñoles) and through nearshoring manufacturing demand. The FIFA World Cup 2026, co-hosted by Mexico, the U.S., and Canada, is an increasingly cited structural tailwind for Mexico’s tourism and infrastructure sectors — particularly ASUR and the airport operators — as preparations intensify.
Looking Ahead
Banxico — March 26 Meeting:
The Banxico February 5 minutes revealed a divided board. One member advocated resuming cuts given the fiscal impacts were proving transitory; another called for patience through at least H1 2026 before any resumption. Goldman Sachs economist Alberto Ramos sees the March pause continuing; Banorte anticipates a 25 basis-point cut at the March 26 meeting. The Iran oil shock now adds an inflationary complication: Brent above $80 will pass through to Mexican gasoline prices within weeks, potentially pushing January’s 3.77% general inflation back toward 4%+ and further delaying the path to Banxico’s 3.0% target, now pushed to Q2 2027.
T-MEC and Trade Policy:
T-MEC renegotiation and the threat of renewed U.S. tariffs on Mexican goods remain the structural overhang on the IPC. The dollar’s year-over-year decline of 13.08% against the peso has provided cushion, but the gap between current 17.57 spot and the 19.30–20.50 year-end consensus forecasts highlights the peso’s vulnerability if trade tensions re-escalate. AMLO-era nearshoring investments in Northern Mexico have driven significant capital inflows; any disruption to this trend would hit GMEXICO, FEMSA, and the industrial sector disproportionately.
Iran-Hormuz Duration:
Citigroup’s base case places Brent at $80–$90 for “at least the next week,” conditional on Iranian leadership change within 1–2 weeks. Morgan Stanley raised its Q2 2026 Brent target to $80 from $62.50. For Mexico, every $10/bbl sustained rise in Brent is estimated to add approximately 0.3–0.5 percentage points to CPI, according to Banxico’s own modeling, creating a direct conflict between external inflation pressure and the central bank’s objective of resuming rate cuts.
Verdict
Wednesday’s recovery is the strongest technical reading among the LATAM markets covered this morning. Where Brazil’s Ibovespa and Colombia’s COLCAP showed partial, tentative bounces on deeply negative MACD structures, Mexico’s IPC recaptured almost the entire two-day loss in a single session while maintaining positive MACD lines (840.02 / 504.60) and a mid-range neutral RSI (58.81). This is the signature of a stronger underlying trend — the Iran shock produced a two-day wick, not a trend break.
The peso’s resilience is the other distinguishing factor. Mexico has attracted sustained nearshoring inflows, a beneficial interest rate differential at 7.00%, and World Cup infrastructure spending that has kept foreign capital engaged even through the Iran-driven dollar spike. The peso’s 13.08% year-over-year strength against the dollar is structural, not speculative, which limits the downside even in risk-off episodes.
Risks remain. Pemex’s financial fragility, the inflationary pass-through of elevated Brent, and the gap between spot peso (17.57) and year-end consensus forecasts (19.30–20.50) are genuine structural vulnerabilities. The March 26 Banxico meeting will be pivotal: if the oil shock pushes inflation back above 4%, the board will be unable to cut and the rate-sensitive sectors of the IPC — banks, real estate, retail — will face renewed pressure.
Bias: CAUTIOUSLY BULLISH — strongest technical recovery in the LATAM batch. A confirmed close above 70,513 (March 4 session high) opens the path to retest the February 12 ATH of 72,111. Hold above 69,400–69,500 (MA cluster / Ichimoku support) required to maintain the constructive setup; a break below 68,394 (session low) would signal the correction has resumed.