Kast Sworn In Today as Chile’s Most Right-Wing President Since Pinochet; Banco Master CPI Clears Signature Threshold as Brazil’s Institutional Crisis Deepens; Colombia’s Full Map Confirms Historic Pact at 62 Seats and Uribe’s First National Defeat; Milei Meets Dimon Then Heads to Santiago; Hormuz Oil Shock Eases After IEA Reserve Proposal
Executive Summary
The Big Picture: José Antonio Kast is inaugurated today in Valparaíso as Chile’s most right-wing president since Pinochet—the ceremony marks the completion of the Southern Cone’s rightward sweep and the first real-world test of the Doral coalition’s architecture. Washington sent Deputy Secretary Landau; Beijing countered with Xi’s special envoy Ni Hong. Twelve heads of state are present, including Milei, Noboa, and King Felipe VI. The geopolitical subtext—who gets the first bilateral, what Kast signals on the China Mobile submarine cable—matters more than the ceremony itself. Meanwhile, Brazil’s Banco Master scandal crossed a critical threshold, Colombia’s full congressional map revealed Uribe’s first-ever national defeat, and regional markets rallied as the Hormuz oil shock eased on Tuesday.
Chile’s Kast takes office promising an “emergency government” focused on security, migration, and economic stagnation. His Border Shield immigration crackdown activates today with 3,000 personnel deployed to the northern frontier—walls, watchtowers, autonomous drones, deeper trenches. The broken transition with outgoing President Boric—the first such failure in post-Pinochet history—means no institutional continuity. The evenly divided Senate and the People’s Party’s swing role in the lower house will define whether Kast can legislate or only decree. Landau held a bilateral with Kast on Tuesday evening at the Cousiño Palace explicitly aimed at “resetting” the relationship on security, supply chains, and commercial ties.
Brazil’s Banco Master scandal crossed a dangerous threshold: 35 senators have now signed a motion to open a CPI investigating alleged links between Supreme Court justices Alexandre de Moraes and Dias Toffoli and the failed bank’s R$41 billion collapse—well above the 27-signature minimum. The CPI appealed to the STF to compel imprisoned banker Daniel Vorcaro’s testimony after a justice made his appearance optional. Vorcaro was re-arrested on March 4 for allegedly bribing two central bank officials and threatening a journalist. This is potentially the most consequential institutional crisis since Lava Jato, with direct implications for Lula’s October re-election bid as some of those implicated are government allies.
Colombia’s full congressional map emerged on Tuesday: the Historic Pact holds 62 total seats across both chambers, the Democratic Center 45. Former President Uribe himself failed to win a Senate seat—his first loss in a national election—even as his protégée Paloma Valencia won the right-wing primary with 3.2 million votes. The centrist bloc—Liberals, Conservatives, Party of the U—controls 47 senators and 8.5 million votes, making it kingmaker for any future president. Juan Daniel Oviedo’s surprise 1.25 million primary votes reshuffled the right-of-centre field. The May 31 first round could produce six or more candidates with none above 20%.
Argentina’s Milei continued Argentina Week in New York with a meeting with JP Morgan CEO Jamie Dimon on Tuesday before departing for Kast’s inauguration in Santiago. He voiced “full and absolute” support for U.S. and Israeli actions in the Middle East and called the oil shock “favourable for Argentina” through Vaca Muerta’s improved terms of trade. Six global banks’ recent recommendation to exit Argentine sovereign bonds—citing negative net reserves and continued exchange controls—remains a counter-narrative to the roadshow’s optimism. The BCRA has accumulated over US$2.8 billion in reserves in 2026.
Mexico’s USMCA review process advanced as the economy ministry released a public consultation summary on Monday, signalling preparation for the summer renegotiation deadline—the most consequential bilateral test since Sheinbaum took office. The CJNG succession crisis following El Mencho’s February 22 killing remains the country’s dominant security challenge, with factional violence across multiple states. Sheinbaum’s sovereignty framework—rejecting U.S. military operations while maintaining bilateral cooperation—held after Monday’s firm mañanera response to Trump’s Doral mockery.
Regional Mood
Today in Valparaíso, Kast’s inauguration formalises a hemisphere divided into two blocs: the Doral coalition of right-aligned governments on one side, the excluded trio of Brazil, Mexico, and Colombia on the other. The question is no longer whether the division exists but whether the dividing line holds—or whether the centrist kingmaker bloc that now controls Colombia’s Congress, and the pragmatic diplomacy Sheinbaum practises in Mexico, can bridge the gap. Uribe’s Senate defeat and the generational transfer to Valencia signal that even the traditional right is being reshaped by the electoral pressures of 2026. Brazil’s Banco Master CPI introduces a wildcard: if the scandal reaches the Supreme Court directly, it becomes an electoral variable in October that could accelerate Lula’s vulnerability. The Hormuz oil shock eased on Tuesday after the IEA proposed the largest-ever reserve release and the U.S. Energy Secretary’s false Navy escort claim was retracted—a reminder that the crisis is driven by communication as much as by barrels. Every Latin American government is now governing under energy uncertainty none of them created and none of them can resolve.
Risk Snapshot
| Country | Key Driver | Risk Level |
|---|---|---|
| Chile | Kast inaugurated today; Border Shield activates; Landau and Xi envoy present; cable decision imminent | ELEVATED |
| Brazil | Banco Master CPI clears 35 signatures; STF compulsion appeal; Copom Mar 17–18 | ELEVATED |
| Colombia | Full map: Historic Pact 62 seats, DC 45; Uribe loses Senate seat; centrist bloc kingmaker; May 31 field set | ELEVATED |
| Cuba | Grid still at ~1,000 MW vs 3,000+ MW demand; daily 12–20hr blackouts; embassy closed in Ecuador; U.S. oil blockade persists | CRITICAL |
| Mexico | USMCA review consultation released; Sheinbaum sovereignty line holds; CJNG succession ongoing | ELEVATED |
| Argentina | Milei meets Dimon then to Santiago; Argentina Week continues; Vaca Muerta oil windfall | STABLE |
| Ecuador | Revolución Ciudadana suspended 9 months; party warns of “dictatorship”; Cuba embassy closed; U.S. joint ops continue | ELEVATED |
Chile
Kast inaugurated today in Valparaíso; Landau and Xi envoy attend; Border Shield activates; broken transition leaves no institutional continuity
What Happened
- —Inauguration day: José Antonio Kast will be sworn in before Congress in Valparaíso today, becoming Chile’s 38th president and its most right-wing leader since the end of the Pinochet dictatorship in 1990. He will be the first president to move into La Moneda since Carlos Ibáñez del Campo in the 1950s. His cabinet draws primarily from the private sector and think tanks—not the political establishment—reflecting his “emergency government” framing focused on security, economic stagnation, and irregular migration.
- —Washington vs. Beijing at La Moneda: Deputy Secretary Landau arrived in Santiago on Monday and held bilateral meetings with Kast on Tuesday evening at the Cousiño Palace. China’s special envoy Ni Hong is also present. The dual attendance creates an immediate test for the Doral summit’s “secure infrastructure” protocols and the unresolved China Mobile submarine cable dispute. Panama’s Mulino also held a bilateral with Kast on Tuesday evening, with ministers covering economy, trade, and canal affairs.
- —International attendance: Confirmed heads of state include Milei (Argentina), Noboa (Ecuador), Paz (Bolivia), Peña (Paraguay), Chaves (Costa Rica), Mulino (Panama), Abinader (Dominican Republic), Asfura (Honduras), Orsi (Uruguay), Hungary’s Sulyok, Haiti’s PM Fils-Aimé, and King Felipe VI of Spain. El Salvador sent VP Ulloa; Italy sent Deputy PM Tajani.
- —Border Shield and governance: Kast’s immigration crackdown activates today, promising 3,000 personnel for the northern frontier including walls, watchtowers, autonomous drones, and deeper trenches. But his governance challenge is immediate: the Senate is evenly divided and the People’s Party holds the balance in the lower house. His legislative agenda—Codelco audit, fuel subsidy restructuring, copper-sector regulatory reform—requires coalition-building from day one.
Why It Matters
Today’s inauguration completes the Southern Cone’s rightward sweep: every major government in the subregion except Brazil is now aligned with Washington. The real test begins immediately. The China cable decision is the first binary policy choice: cancel it (Washington wins), keep it (Beijing wins), or renegotiate (Kast buys time). Landau’s bilateral meeting Tuesday explicitly aimed to “reset the U.S.-Chile relationship” on security, supply chains, and commercial ties—a clear signal that the cable is on the agenda. The dual attendance of the U.S. and Chinese delegations transforms the ceremony from pageantry into a live diplomatic competition.
The 8M Women’s Day protests two days ago—where thousands marched against the incoming government—and the feminist collective LASTESIS’s warning that “everything we believe in is in danger” foreshadow the domestic opposition Kast will face. His broken transition with Boric, the first such failure in post-Pinochet Chile, means he enters without institutional continuity and with a society divided on fundamental questions about rights, identity, and the country’s relationship with its authoritarian past.
Key Watch
Inauguration ceremony and international bilateral meetings. China cable decision timeline. Border Shield Day One execution. People’s Party coalition terms. Landau–Kast joint statement or communiqué. Whether Kast signals on the Doral charter’s anti-China protocols in his inaugural address.
RISK: ELEVATED
Brazil
Banco Master CPI clears 35-signature threshold; STF compulsion battle over Vorcaro testimony; Lava Jato parallels deepen; Copom one week away
What Happened
- —CPI threshold crossed: Senator Alessandro Vieira (MDB) announced that 35 of Brazil’s 81 senators have signed his motion to open a parliamentary inquiry into alleged links between Supreme Court justices—specifically Alexandre de Moraes and Dias Toffoli—and the failed Banco Master. The 35 signatures exceed the 27-signature minimum required to open a CPI. Banco Master’s collapse left a R$41 billion hole (approximately US$7.6 billion) and 1.6 million affected creditors.
- —STF compulsion battle: The CPI do Crime Organizado filed an appeal to the Supreme Court on Monday to compel imprisoned banker Daniel Vorcaro’s testimony after Justice André Mendonça ruled his appearance optional. Vorcaro was re-arrested on March 4 for allegedly bribing two central bank officials, obstructing investigations, and threatening an employee and a journalist. His brother-in-law Fabiano Zettel was also arrested in São Paulo in a new phase of Operation Compliance Zero.
- —Market relief: The Ibovespa rose 1.40% to 183,447 as the oil crash eased stagflation fears that had hammered the index for two weeks. Petrobras gave back some recent gains as Brent retreated, but the broader market—banks, industrials, consumer—recovered. The Copom meets March 17–18 with the Selic at 15.00%; the expected 50bp cut remains complicated by energy-driven inflation, though Tuesday’s Brent crash improves the outlook marginally.
Why It Matters
The Banco Master scandal has the potential to become Brazil’s most consequential institutional crisis since Lava Jato. The core allegations—that Supreme Court justices had financial relationships with a banker now accused of large-scale fraud, bribery of central bank officials, and obstruction—strike at the foundation of judicial independence. Justice Moraes’s wife’s law firm signed contracts with the bank; Justice Toffoli ordered the investigation resumed but also restricted CPI access to documents. The political dimension is unavoidable: some of those implicated are Lula allies, and the scandal could become an electoral variable in October’s presidential race.
The opposition PL—Bolsonaro’s party—has separately filed for a CPI in Brasília’s legislative chamber to investigate the aborted BRB-Master acquisition, adding a federal capital dimension to the federal scandal. The convergence of the organised crime CPI, the proposed Supreme Court CPI, and the district-level inquiry creates multiple investigative fronts that could reinforce or complicate each other. A direct confrontation between Congress and the STF over compelled testimony and document access would introduce institutional risk that is not currently in anyone’s calculus—but that is precisely where the scandal is heading. The Copom meets March 17–18 with the Selic at 15.00%; the Hormuz oil retreat marginally improves the outlook for the expected 50bp cut, but the institutional backdrop has darkened.
Key Watch
Whether Senate president Alcolumbre formally opens the CPI. STF ruling on Vorcaro compulsion appeal. Copom March 17–18 decision and whether the oil retreat reopens the door for 50bp. Whether the Moraes/Toffoli allegations gain traction or are contained. Lula’s exposure as the scandal enters his re-election year.
RISK: ELEVATED
Colombia
Full congressional map confirms Historic Pact dominance with 62 seats; Uribe loses Senate seat in first national defeat; centrist bloc emerges as kingmaker; COLCAP extends post-election surge
What Happened
- —Full map: CNN en Español confirmed the complete congressional breakdown on Tuesday: the Historic Pact holds 62 total seats across both chambers (25 Senate, approximately 40 House), making it the largest single force. The Democratic Center took 45 (17 Senate, 28 House). Traditional parties maintain significant presence: the Liberal Party, Conservative Party, Green Alliance, and Party of the U collectively control the centrist balance. No bloc holds an outright majority in either chamber.
- —Uribe’s defeat: Former President Álvaro Uribe—one of the most influential figures in Colombian politics for two decades—failed to win a Senate seat, marking his first loss in a national election. Placed at position 25 on the Democratic Center’s closed list, his party won only 17 seats. AS/COA noted his defeat alongside his protégée Valencia’s triumph: “Valencia performed well in the presidential primaries, but Uribe failed to win a Senate seat.” Several other prominent figures also lost their seats, including the wife of presidential candidate Claudia López (Angélica Lozano) and controversial Afro-Colombian representative Miguel Polo Polo.
- —Centrist kingmaker: Colombia Risk Analysis identified the centrist coalition—Conservatives, Liberals, and Party of the U—as controlling 47 senators and 8.5 million votes. This bloc will be kingmaker for any future president, as neither the left (Historic Pact) nor the right (Democratic Center) can command a legislative majority alone. Analyst Sergio Guzmán described a Congress where “relatively ideological extremists lead the presidential race, while a strong moderate coalition leads the legislative vote.”
- —Presidential field reshaped: Valencia’s 3.2 million right-wing primary votes and Oviedo’s surprise 1.25 million repositioned the conservative field. De la Espriella’s party drew only 600,000 votes—one-tenth of Valencia’s consultation—making his presidential candidacy “shaky” according to multiple analysts. Barreras won the left-wing primary with just 256,000 votes against Cepeda’s uncontested frontrunner status. The May 31 first round could see six or more candidates with no one above 20%.
Why It Matters
Uribe’s failure to win a Senate seat is a symbolic milestone for Colombian politics. The man who dominated the right for twenty years, founded the Democratic Center, and served as the opposition’s gravitational centre since Petro’s election now finds himself outside Congress. His party grew—from 13 to 17 seats—but under Valencia’s leadership, not his. The generational transfer on the right is now formal, not just rhetorical. Whether Uribe’s exclusion weakens or liberates Valencia’s presidential campaign is the immediate question: freed from his polarising presence, she may broaden her coalition; without his congressional platform, the party loses its most experienced legislative operator.
The fragmentation guarantees institutional continuity: no radical reform agenda can pass, no constitutional rewrite is feasible, and the centrist bloc ensures that whoever wins in May governs through negotiation rather than decree. For the right, the question is whether Valencia and Oviedo formalise an alliance—their combined 4.5 million primary votes would create a formidable ticket. For the left, Cepeda’s uncontested frontrunner status is both strength and risk: he leads polls but must navigate a Congress where the Historic Pact cannot legislate alone. The Trump administration’s role remains the wildcard—Rubio and Uribe have longstanding ties, and a Washington signal on its preferred right-wing candidate before May 31 could tip the balance.
Key Watch
Final vote-by-vote tally mid-week for definitive seat allocations. Whether Valencia and Oviedo formalise an alliance. Whether de la Espriella drops out or doubles down. Cepeda’s polling trajectory now that Congress is set. Petro’s constitutional rewrite push—whether it gains institutional traction. Washington’s signal on its preferred right-wing candidate.
RISK: ELEVATED
Regional Snapshot
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Mexico The IPC recovered 0.76% to 67,398 on Tuesday after three consecutive declines, aided by the Brent retreat and the constructive tone Sheinbaum set at Monday’s mañanera. Mexico’s economy ministry released a public consultation summary on the USMCA review, signalling preparation for the summer renegotiation deadline—a critical test for the bilateral relationship. The CJNG succession crisis following El Mencho’s February 22 killing remains the dominant security challenge, with factional violence continuing across multiple states. World Cup security planning is advancing with 100,000 personnel to be deployed. Sheinbaum’s sovereignty line—rejecting U.S. military operations while maintaining bilateral cooperation—remains the governing framework. |
Cuba The energy crisis continues without resolution. The grid operates at roughly 1,000 MW against demand exceeding 3,000 MW. Daily blackouts of 12–20 hours remain the norm. Eight of Cuba’s 16 thermoelectric plants are offline. The Antonio Guiteras plant was repaired over the weekend but cannot alone resolve the underlying fuel deficit caused by the U.S. oil blockade following Venezuela’s loss of shipments after Maduro’s capture. Air France suspended Havana flights due to jet fuel shortages. Havana claimed that 10 people aboard a speedboat planned to “unleash terrorism” on the island. Trump continues to frame Cuba as “in its last moments,” maintaining regime-change pressure alongside economic strangulation. |
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Argentina The MERVAL surged 2.56% to 2,700,255—the strongest session among tracked indices—as the oil pullback relieved financial stocks that had been under sustained selling pressure. Milei met JP Morgan CEO Jamie Dimon on Tuesday as part of Argentina Week in New York, continuing the largest Argentine investment roadshow in recent memory. He departs for Santiago to attend Kast’s inauguration today. Milei called the oil shock “favourable for Argentina” through improved terms of trade for Vaca Muerta. March inflation is expected around 3%. The BCRA has accumulated over US$2.8 billion in reserves in 2026. Six global banks’ recommendation to exit sovereign bonds remains a counter-narrative to the roadshow optimism. |
Ecuador Noboa’s government suspended the main opposition party Revolución Ciudadana for nine months on March 6 through a ruling by electoral tribunal judge Joaquín Viteri. Party president Gabriela Rivadeneira denounced the suspension on March 9 as evidence of “encroaching dictatorship.” The move comes after Noboa expelled all Cuban diplomats, closed the Havana embassy, and deepened U.S. military cooperation through Operation Southern Spear. Ecuador’s role as Washington’s operational prototype for the Shield of the Americas coalition is now entrenched. Noboa justified the Cuban expulsion Monday by alleging “interference in political and violent activities.” |
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Peru With 32 days until the April 12 presidential and legislative elections, the latest Datum poll (released Sunday) showed Keiko Fujimori overtaking López Aliaga for the first time in weeks: 10.7% vs 10.0%. Over 38% of voters remain undecided. Other candidates near 5% include López-Chau, Acuña, and Álvarez. The ballot also reinstates the Senate for the first time since 1992—60 seats. Candidate registration deadline is March 14. Interim President Balcázar, the country’s ninth president in a decade, governs until the elected president is sworn in on July 28. |
Bolivia Subnational elections on March 22—for governors, mayors, and local authorities—are 11 days away. The MAS has effectively disappeared from the contest, fielding no candidates in any departmental capital. The political landscape is fragmented across more than fifteen parties per municipality. President Paz’s coalition partner Doria Medina and VP-turned-opponent Lara back competing slates. Inflation remains around 23%, dollar shortages persist. Uruguay’s Interior Minister Negro announced a 10-year public security plan on March 9, adding to the regional security agenda ahead of the Bolivian vote. |
Markets at a Glance
| Index | Close | Change | Context |
|---|---|---|---|
| Ibovespa | 183,447.00 | +1.40% | Oil relief rally; banks and industrials recover; Petrobras gives back gains as Brent retreats |
| MERVAL | 2,700,255.24 | +2.56% | Strongest session; Milei meets Dimon; financials bounce; Argentina Week optimism |
| IPC (Mexico) | 67,397.94 | +0.76% | Recovery after three declines; Brent retreat eases inflation concern; USMCA review advances |
| COLCAP | 2,272.65 | +2.11% | Second consecutive post-election surge; clarity on congressional map; centrist bloc as kingmaker |
| IPSA (Chile) | 10,604.52 | +1.69% | Best session in weeks; inauguration-eve optimism; oil relief; above 10,500 |
| Brent Crude | US$87.80 | −11.28% | Largest single-session drop since crisis began; Wright false claim + IEA reserve proposal |
| WTI Crude | US$83.45 | −11.94% | Sharpest drop; U.S. gasoline still up 17% since war began; Hormuz still closed |
| Selic | 15.00% | — | Copom Mar 17–18; oil retreat marginally improves outlook for 50bp cut |
Market data reflects Tuesday, March 10, 2026 closing prices. Equity index figures sourced from TradingView Tier 0 charts provided by editor. Oil prices from CNBC reporting. Supplementary data from Trading Economics and Rio Times daily briefs.
The Week Ahead
| Date | Event | Country |
|---|---|---|
| Mar 11 | José Antonio Kast inaugurated; Border Shield activates; Landau and Xi envoy bilateral meetings | Chile |
| Mar 11 | IEA extraordinary meeting on largest-ever strategic petroleum reserve release | Global |
| Mar ~12 | Final vote-by-vote tally for definitive congressional seat allocation | Colombia |
| Mar 14 | Peru candidate registration deadline for April 12 general election | Peru |
| Mar 17–18 | Copom meeting — Selic at 15.00%; 50bp cut expected; oil retreat improves outlook marginally | Brazil |
| Mar 22 | Subnational elections — governors, mayors, local authorities; first test of Paz government | Bolivia |
| Apr 12 | General election — president, Senate (first since 1992), and Chamber of Deputies | Peru |
| May 31 | Presidential election first round | Colombia |
| Ongoing | Strait of Hormuz crisis — oil volatility, IEA reserves, tanker traffic, stagflation risk | Global |
| Ongoing | Banco Master CPI; Ecuador military ops; CJNG succession; Shield of the Americas implementation | Regional |