Week Overview

This week delivers the heavyweight trifecta: Friday’s Nonfarm Payrolls and Retail Sales double-header, plus ISM Manufacturing PMI on Monday and ISM Services on Wednesday, collectively set the tone for the March 18–19 FOMC meeting. ADP Employment (Wednesday) and the Fed’s Beige Book provide real-time labor and economic context. The Eurozone releases its February flash CPI on Tuesday — the first read on whether the below-target 1.7% January print persists. Brazil Q4 GDP (Tuesday) and unemployment data (Thursday) anchor the LATAM calendar, with Colombia CPI (Thursday) and Chile CPI (Friday) completing the regional inflation picture. S&P Global PMIs for Brazil, Mexico, and Colombia (Monday/Wednesday) gauge manufacturing and services momentum. South Korea’s Independence Movement Day thins Asian liquidity to start the week.

Three Themes That Will Define the Week

Week in Context

Coming off last week’s PPI, PCE, and German election data, markets enter this week focused squarely on the US labor market. The macro narrative hinges on whether January’s 130K NFP print was a one-off bounce or signals sustained hiring resilience despite DOGE-driven federal cuts. Monday’s ISM Manufacturing PMI (cons. 51.7) tests whether January’s surprise expansion return (52.6 after 26 months of contraction) has legs. Wednesday’s ADP, ISM Services, and Beige Book provide the pre-NFP warm-up. Eurozone flash February CPI (Tuesday) is the ECB’s first inflation checkpoint since January’s below-target 1.7% print — if headline stays at 1.7% with core at 2.2%, the “good place” narrative faces a disinflation challenge. For LATAM, Brazil Q4 GDP (Tuesday) gauges whether the economy is stalling under tight Selic policy, Colombia CPI (Thursday) tests disinflation progress critical for BanRep rate decisions, and S&P Global PMIs for Brazil and Mexico (both deep in contraction territory) will show whether tariff and tight-money pressures are easing. Chile CPI and Mexico Consumer Confidence (Friday) close out the regional calendar. ECB President Lagarde speaks Monday, Thursday, and Friday — any shift in tone on inflation or the euro could move markets.

Manufacturing day. The ISM Manufacturing PMI (cons. 51.7) is the week’s first test of whether January’s dramatic expansion return (52.6 — the first reading above 50 in 27 months) has legs. A reading above 50 confirms the expansion narrative; a slip below raises questions about tariff front-loading. New Orders (prior 57.1) and Prices Paid (prior 49.5) deserve close attention for forward demand and cost signals. S&P Global Manufacturing PMIs for Brazil (prior 46.0), Mexico (prior 46.5), and Colombia (prior 52.4) arrive alongside the US data — all three reflect tariff and tight-money pressures, with Mexico’s deep contraction signaling ongoing USMCA uncertainty. South Korea’s closure means thinner Asian session volumes, while ECB President Lagarde’s speech could set the tone for Tuesday’s CPI print.

Two marquee releases. Eurozone February flash CPI (cons. 1.7% headline / 2.2% core) arrives at 5:00 AM ET — a repeat of January’s below-target print would reinforce ECB rate cut expectations and weigh on the euro. Core CPI at 2.2% would mark the lowest since 2021. Brazil Q4 GDP (7:00 AM ET) follows a tepid +0.1% QoQ in Q3 — any further deceleration raises the stakes for the BCB’s tightening cycle under 13.25% Selic rates. JOLTS Job Openings (10:00 AM, cons. 7.63M) provides the labor demand side ahead of Friday’s payrolls. Brazil’s February trade balance and Mexico remittances data round out the LATAM afternoon.

The pre-NFP trifecta. ADP Employment (8:15 AM, cons. 49K vs. prior 22K) provides the first February labor read — though ADP’s correlation with NFP has been inconsistent, any surprise above 100K or below zero would shift sentiment. ISM Services (10:00 AM, cons. 53.5 vs. 53.8) measures the 80% of GDP that matters most — watch the Employment sub-index for NFP clues. The Beige Book (2:00 PM) will be scoured for qualitative signals on hiring, tariff impacts, and business sentiment ahead of the March 18–19 FOMC. Brazil Industrial Production (Jan) and S&P Global Services PMIs for Brazil (prior 46.6), Mexico, and Colombia provide the LATAM activity update — Brazil’s sub-47 services reading suggests the Selic squeeze is biting.

Claims and productivity. Initial Claims (cons. 215K vs. 212K) are the pulse check — any sustained move above 230K would signal DOGE-related federal separations hitting the data. The Q4 Nonfarm Productivity revision (cons. 1.7% vs. prelim 4.9%) and Unit Labor Costs (cons. 2.1% vs. −1.9%) could see significant revisions that reframe the inflation outlook. Brazil unemployment (prior 5.1%) and Colombia CPI (Jan: 5.4% YoY) provide dual LATAM reads — Colombian disinflation progress is key for BanRep rate-cut expectations after January’s uptick to 5.4%. The January trade deficit (cons. −$93.4B) may narrow from December’s −$98.4B as tariff front-loading fades. ECB President Lagarde’s second appearance this week could react to Tuesday’s CPI results.

The main event. February NFP (cons. 58K vs. 130K) faces a dramatic consensus drop — the 72K swing reflects expected federal workforce reductions and weather impacts. The unemployment rate (cons. 4.3%) staying steady would signal underlying stability, but any jump toward 4.5% would rattle markets. Retail Sales (7:30 AM, cons. −0.3% headline) tests consumer resilience after December’s flat reading — the Control Group (cons. 0.0%) feeds directly into GDP models. Average Hourly Earnings (cons. 0.3% MoM vs. 0.4%) provide the wage-inflation signal the Fed watches closely. Chile CPI and Mexico Consumer Confidence round out the LATAM week, while Michigan Consumer Sentiment (prelim March) captures early tariff-related anxiety.

The Bottom Line

This is the most data-heavy week before the March 18–19 FOMC meeting. The labor market narrative gets tested from every angle: ADP on Wednesday, Claims on Thursday, NFP on Friday. If payrolls print anywhere near the 58K consensus (versus January’s 130K), it will mark the sharpest one-month deceleration since 2020 and intensify calls for a June rate cut. But the ISM double-header matters just as much — manufacturing staying above 50 while services hold above 53 would signal a resilient but rebalancing economy. Outside the US, Eurozone flash CPI either confirms the below-2% disinflation trend or challenges the ECB’s dovish pivot, while Brazil’s Q4 GDP reveals whether Latin America’s largest economy is feeling the squeeze of 13.25% Selic rates. Colombia CPI (Thursday) tests whether the BanRep can accelerate its easing cycle, and S&P Global PMIs across Brazil, Mexico, and Colombia paint the regional activity picture. Trade accordingly.