Week Overview

This week brings US PPI, CB Consumer Confidence, Canadian Q4 GDP, Eurozone final CPI, German Ifo and CPI, Mexico Q4 GDP and bi-monthly CPI, the Bank of Korea rate decision, and a heavy Fed speaker calendar headlined by Waller, Goolsbee, and Bowman. Friday’s US PPI + Canada GDP double-header anchors the week’s risk events. Japan’s Emperor’s Birthday and China’s final Chinese New Year closures thin Asian liquidity on Monday.

Three Themes That Will Define the Week

1

US PPI + Canada GDP Friday blockbuster: January PPI (consensus +0.3% MoM, prior +0.5%) arrives at 8:30 AM ET alongside Canadian Q4 GDP (prior +2.6% annualized). PPI feeds directly into the PCE deflator calculation — a hot print would reinforce the hawkish narrative from last week’s data. Chicago PMI provides a real-time February activity pulse.

2

Fed speaker parade — Waller, Goolsbee, Bowman lead the charge: With the March FOMC approaching, Waller (Mon + Tue), Goolsbee (Tue), Collins (Tue), Cook (Tue), Bostic (Tue), Bowman (Thu), and Barkin (Tue/Wed) will be parsing last week’s GDP, PCE, and PMI data publicly. Markets will calibrate March pricing in real time off these remarks.

3

LATAM macro week — Mexico GDP, Brazil CPI, Chilean jobs: Mexico Q4 GDP (Mon, cons. +0.8% QoQ) and bi-monthly CPI (Tue) bookend the Banxico picture. Brazil mid-month CPI and unemployment (Fri) guide Selic expectations. Chile copper production, retail sales, and unemployment (Fri) round out Andean data. Argentina economic activity (Tue) continues the Milei recovery tracking.

Week in Context

Coming off last week’s GDP + PCE + PMI triple-header, markets enter this week with fresh data to digest and a parade of Fed speakers ready to interpret it. The macro focus shifts from backward-looking national accounts to forward-looking sentiment: German Ifo (Mon) and US CB Consumer Confidence (Tue) provide February reads on business and consumer health. Eurozone final CPI (Wed) confirms whether the 1.7% headline holds, while German preliminary February CPI (Fri) offers the first look at the next inflation cycle. For LATAM, Mexico Q4 GDP (Mon) and bi-monthly CPI (Tue) shape the Banxico outlook, Brazil mid-month CPI and jobs data (Fri) inform Selic positioning, and Chile’s labor/retail/copper trifecta (Fri) tests Andean resilience. The Bank of Korea’s rate decision Wednesday adds Asian central bank context. Friday’s US PPI feeds directly into the PCE deflator — any upside surprise would cement the “higher for longer” narrative heading into March FOMC.

Japan closed — Emperor’s Birthday. China closed — Chinese New Year (final day). PBoC Loan Prime Rate at 8:00 PM ET despite holiday.

Ifo + Mexico GDP + PBoC — A Three-Act Monday: With Japan and China on holiday, Monday opens on European data. The German Ifo Business Climate (cons. 88.4, up from 87.6) provides the first February read on German business sentiment — watch whether expectations (cons. 90.5) diverge further from the still-depressed current assessment (cons. 86.1). Mexico Q4 GDP at 7:00 AM is the week’s first LATAM anchor — consensus expects +0.8% QoQ to hold, but any negative surprise would pressure MXN and raise questions about Banxico’s easing pace. Brazil’s FGV consumer confidence and BCB Focus readout provide early color on Selic expectations. Fed Governor Waller speaks at 8:00 AM — his views carry weight given his proximity to Chair Powell. ECB President Lagarde at 12:30 PM may address European growth concerns. The PBoC Loan Prime Rate at 8:00 PM ET is expected to hold both the 1-year (3.50%) and 5-year (3.00%) rates steady.

Consumer Confidence + Mexico CPI + Fed Speaker Deluge: Tuesday is the heaviest Fed speaker day of the week — Waller (9:10 AM), Goolsbee (8:00 AM), Collins (9:00 AM), Bostic (9:00 AM), Cook (9:35 AM), and Barkin (3:15 PM) all speak, making this a real-time market pricing exercise as officials react to last week’s data. CB Consumer Confidence at 10:00 AM (cons. 87.6, up from 84.5) is the key hard data point — the expectations component is the recession indicator. Mexico’s bi-monthly CPI at 7:00 AM is critical for Banxico — watch the core reading (prior 0.43%) for signs of sticky services inflation. Brazil current account and FDI data inform the external balance picture. Argentina’s December economic activity is a lagging but politically important read on whether the Milei-driven recovery is materializing. BoE Governor Bailey and MPC member Pill speak at 9:15 AM, potentially previewing March BoE thinking.

Eurozone CPI + Bank of Korea — Inflation and Central Banks: Eurozone final January CPI (cons. 1.7% headline, 2.2% core) is the European anchor — confirmation at these levels keeps the ECB easing path intact. German GDP final (cons. +0.3% QoQ) is expected to confirm the preliminary, while GfK consumer climate (cons. −22.9, improving from −24.1) tests whether German consumers are thawing. Mexico current account and Argentina retail sales add LATAM context — Argentina’s 21.2% prior YoY retail growth reflects Milei-era base effects. Brazil FX flows and bank lending data inform the real-BRL picture. The Bank of Korea rate decision at 8:00 PM ET is the week’s major central bank event — markets are watching whether the BoK holds at 2.50% or delivers another 25bp cut to support the faltering Korean economy amid political uncertainty. Barkin and Schmid provide additional Fed commentary.

US Claims + Mexico Jobs + Tokyo CPI Overnight: Thursday splits between US labor data, LATAM employment, and Japanese inflation. US initial claims (cons. 216K, prior 206K) continue the weekly labor market health check — any spike above 225K would get attention. Mexico unemployment at 7:00 AM (prior 2.60%) is important for Banxico’s dual-mandate assessment alongside this week’s CPI data. Brazil’s BCB National Monetary Council meeting and IGP-M wholesale inflation feed into Selic expectations. South Africa PPI provides EM inflation context. Lagarde speaks early at 3:30 AM, while Bowman at 10:00 AM provides the lone Fed voice of the day. Overnight, Tokyo Core CPI (cons. 1.7%, down from 2.0%) is the leading indicator for national CPI and critical for BoJ rate expectations — a sharp drop would ease pressure for further tightening. Japan industrial production (cons. +5.5% MoM rebound from −0.1%) and retail sales provide the activity backdrop.

PPI + Canada GDP + LATAM Data Avalanche — Friday Is the Week’s Main Event: Friday delivers the densest data slate of the week across all regions. US PPI at 8:30 AM (cons. +0.3% MoM headline, +0.3% core, down from +0.5% / +0.7%) is the single most important release — PPI components feed directly into the PCE deflator, so any upside surprise would immediately reprice March FOMC expectations. Canada Q4 GDP alongside it (prior +2.6% annualized) tests whether the BoC’s easing cycle is justified. German preliminary February CPI at 8:00 AM (cons. 2.0%, down from 2.1%) offers the first look at the next European inflation cycle. For LATAM, the Friday slate is massive: Brazil mid-month CPI and unemployment at 7:00 AM are the Selic-pricing anchors — the inflation path determines whether the BCB can resume cutting. Chile unemployment, retail sales, and copper production provide the most comprehensive Andean snapshot of the month. Colombia unemployment, Mexico trade balance, and Peru current account round out the regional picture. Chicago PMI at 9:45 AM (cons. 52.4) gives a February activity pulse for the Midwest manufacturing belt.

The Bottom Line

Friday’s US PPI is the linchpin of this week. It feeds directly into the PCE deflator calculation and arrives after last week’s hot CPI and mixed GDP data left markets uncertain about the Fed’s next move. A PPI in line with consensus (+0.3%) would suggest inflation is decelerating but not collapsing — keeping the Fed in patient mode. An upside surprise would cement “higher for longer” heading into March FOMC.

For LATAM, the week is a three-front data battle: Mexico’s Q4 GDP (Monday) and bi-monthly CPI (Tuesday) define the Banxico trajectory; Brazil’s mid-month CPI and unemployment (Friday) set the Selic narrative; and Chile’s triple release (copper, retail, unemployment on Friday) tests Andean resilience against the backdrop of U.S. sanctions fallout.

The Bank of Korea’s rate decision (Wednesday) is the wildcard — if the BoK cuts, it adds to global easing momentum. If it holds, it signals Asian central banks are cautious despite political and economic headwinds. Fed speakers — led by Waller (Mon/Tue), Goolsbee (Tue), and Bowman (Thu) — will be calibrating the March FOMC in real time, making every session a potential volatility catalyst.