Key Points
- A cost-of-living protest wave that began with Tehran merchants has spread to universities, reaching a flashpoint in Fasa on day four.
- The driver is the rial: it has been quoted near 1.38 million per dollar, after losing close to half its value in 2025, while inflation has been reported at 42.5% in December.
- The state is mixing force and outreach, speaking of “dialogue” even as arrests continue and the central bank’s leadership has reportedly been changed.
Iran’s newest unrest is powered by prices. When the rial sinks, essentials jump and paychecks buy less. That squeeze pushed Tehran’s merchants into closures and protests, then spread to campuses.
On Wednesday, attention turned to Fasa, in Fars province. State media said a group tried to force entry into a government building. Security forces stopped the attempt. Officials said a 28-year-old woman described as the leader was arrested.
Tasnim quoted an official saying four people were detained and three security personnel were injured. State television aired video of people pushing at the gate. The economic backdrop is stark.
Multiple reports put the rial around 1.38 million per U.S. dollar. Inflation has been reported at 42.5% in December. With the currency said to have lost almost half its value in 2025, households try to defend savings by moving into dollars, gold, and durable goods.
Iran’s Inflation Shock Fuels Unrest, Raising Regional Risk
Years of state-directed fixes and price controls have not restored confidence. Officials have acknowledged inflation as the trigger while warning about “hostile” media influence.
Yet they have floated a “dialogue mechanism” with protest leaders, without explaining how it would work. Reported changes at the central bank show the currency spiral is now a political risk.
Behind the immediate crisis lies a longer squeeze. U.S. sanctions reimposed in 2018 tightened trade and finance, with added strain from more recent U.N.-related pressure.
After Israeli and U.S. strikes in June, patriotic unity briefly surged, but the living-cost shock returned fast. Why it matters abroad: Iran sits on sensitive energy routes. Prolonged unrest can lift regional risk and add volatility to oil and shipping.