March 3, 2026 • Santiago Morning Briefing • Covering the March 2 Session
The Big Three
IPSA crashes 3.02% to 10,549.28 — worst performer in all of Latin America — Falabella collapsed 6.2%, Latam Airlines fell 5.5%, and BCI dropped 4.8% as the oil shock hit Chile’s import-dependent economy hardest. Only five stocks closed higher, led by Vapores (+3.7%) on surging freight rates. Three-day cumulative decline: −5.3%.
Peso slumps 1.2% as dollar surges to 6-week high near $888 — double blow from the Iran conflict and a shocking Imacec reading of −0.1% in January, the first contractionary print in months. Copper fell 1.4% to $5.95/lb, removing a key structural support for the peso. Analysts warn of $890–$900 if conflict persists.
Imacec surprise undercuts macro story 9 days before Kast inauguration — January activity contracted 0.1% annually vs expectations of +1% to +1.9%, with goods production down 1.5%. The data arrived on the worst possible day, compounding the geopolitical shock and weakening the case for a BCCh rate cut at the March meeting.
Market Snapshot
| Indicator | Value | Change |
|---|---|---|
| S&P IPSA Close | 10,549.28 | −328.46 (−3.02%) |
| IPSA Session Range | 10,546.10 – 10,877.74 | 3.1% spread |
| IPSA All-Time High (intraday) | 11,721.38 | Jan 28, 2026 |
| IPSA vs ATH | −10.0% | −1,172 pts |
| USD/CLP (close) | $884.29 | +1.23% |
| USD/CLP Session Range | $873.99 – $888.05 | 6-week high |
| Copper (CME) | $5.9482/lb | −1.37% |
| BCCh TPM | 4.50% | Held, cut expected March |
| Imacec January 2026 | −0.1% y/y | Expected +1% to +1.9% |
| Brent Crude | $79.45 | +$6.65 (+9.1%) |
| WTI Crude | $72.74 | +$5.72 (+8.4%) |
| S&P 500 | 6,881.62 | +2.74 (+0.04%) |
| DXY (Dollar Index) | 98.56 | +0.96% |
| VIX | 21.44 | +7.96% |
| Gold | $5,408/oz | Safe-haven surge |
Equities
The S&P IPSA collapsed 3.02% to 10,549.28 on Monday, the worst single-session performance in Latin America and the deepest daily drop since the April 2025 “Día de la Liberación” tariff shock. The selloff extended the index’s losing streak to three consecutive sessions with a cumulative decline of 5.3%, leaving it at its lowest level since early January and only modestly above the start-of-year close.
The damage was concentrated in high-weight names. Falabella led the IPSA decline with a 6.2% plunge, reflecting the double hit of higher oil costs feeding through to consumer sentiment and the weak Imacec reading that undercuts the retail recovery narrative. Latam Airlines fell 5.5% — the stock most directly exposed to fuel costs, with jet kerosene prices tracking crude’s 9% surge. BCI dropped 4.8%, Parque Arauco and Cencomalls fell over 5%, and Santander shed 4.04%.
The session’s sole bright spot was Vapores, which rose 3.7% as its subsidiary Hapag-Lloyd surged 6.7% in Frankfurt on expectations that Hormuz closure would reroute global shipping and inflate freight rates. Only four other stocks closed in positive territory. SQM-B fell 2.7%, with markets reacting to weekend earnings results in a session where isolating idiosyncratic moves from the geopolitical noise was nearly impossible.
As XTB’s Emanoelle Santos noted, Chile does not benefit from higher crude prices the way energy-exporting markets do. The balance is unambiguously negative: costs rise, sentiment deteriorates, and outflows accelerate toward defensive positions. Diario Financiero reported that the bolsa chilena was the worst-performing exchange in all of Latin America, with Brazil (−0.7%), Colombia (−0.6%), and Argentina (flat) faring substantially better.
Currency
The peso suffered a double blow on Monday: the Iran war shock and a surprisingly weak Imacec reading. USD/CLP opened at $878.49 (vs Friday’s close of $873.65), briefly dipped to $873.99 before buyers surged in, pushing the pair to an intraday high of $888.05 — its highest level since January 20. By session’s end the pair settled near $884.29, a loss of 1.23% for the peso and its third consecutive weakening session.
Copper — the peso’s structural anchor — fell 1.37% to $5.9482/lb, removing one of the key supports that had kept USD/CLP contained below $880 through most of February. With a stronger dollar globally (DXY +0.96% to 98.56) and weaker copper simultaneously, the peso faced pressure from both sides of its principal correlations.
The Imacec reading of −0.1% annual in January (vs consensus of +1% to +1.9%) was the more structurally damaging input. Goods production contracted 1.5%, dragged by industry, mining, and other sectors. Only services (+1.4%) showed positive momentum. The BCCh noted the month had one fewer working day than January 2025, but the miss was too large to be explained by calendar effects alone. XTB analysts warned the weak data would increase hedging demand in dollars and dampen growth projections for 2026.
Looking ahead, Bloomberg Línea reports that analysts see $890–$900 as a realistic range for March if geopolitical tensions persist and copper fails to recover. However, the Kast inauguration on March 11 provides a potential offset: his pro-market agenda is expected to attract foreign investment and gradually compress the risk premium embedded in Chilean assets.
Technical Analysis
IPSA Daily Chart — S&P IPSA Index (1D, BCS)
Monday’s candle was a large red body that opened at the session high (10,877.74) and closed near the absolute low (10,546.10), producing what technical analysts call a “bearish marubozu” — a pattern signaling strong, sustained selling pressure with no meaningful recovery attempts during the session.
OHLC: O 10,877.74 • H 10,877.74 • L 10,546.10 • C 10,549.28
RSI (14/14): 44.32 / 34.63 — the faster RSI line at 44.32 is descending rapidly toward neutral, while the slower line at 34.63 is approaching oversold territory (below 30). The divergence between the two readings indicates accelerating downward momentum. The last time the slower RSI touched 30 was during the April 2025 tariff selloff, which proved to be a buying opportunity.
MACD (12,26,9): −27.151 / −43.542 / −70.694 — all three components are negative and widening. The MACD line (−27.151) sits above the signal line (−43.542), with the histogram at −70.694 showing significant bearish impulse. The histogram has been in negative territory for multiple sessions, with no sign of narrowing that would precede a bullish crossover.
Ichimoku Cloud: Price is trading at the bottom edge of the Ichimoku cloud. The close at 10,549.28 sits just below the cloud’s lower boundary near 10,567, which represents a significant technical breakdown. If the index remains below the cloud on Tuesday, the medium-term trend formally flips to bearish for the first time since the October 2025 rally. The rising 200-SMA at approximately 9,405 provides deep structural support.
Volume: Trading volumes were elevated relative to recent sessions, consistent with capitulation-style selling rather than a quiet drift lower. The concentration of volume in high-cap names (Latam, Falabella, SQM-B) suggests institutional repositioning rather than retail panic.
Key Levels
| Level | Price | Significance |
|---|---|---|
| Resistance 3 | 10,916.57 | Prior swing high / chart level |
| Resistance 2 | 10,894.86 | Ichimoku cloud upper / prior support |
| Resistance 1 | 10,847.87 | Cloud interior / gap fill |
| Current Close | 10,549.28 | March 2 close (below cloud) |
| Support 1 | 10,566.98 | Cloud base / near-term floor |
| Support 2 | 10,400.00 | Psychological / Jan 2 close area |
| Support 3 (200-SMA) | 9,404.97 | 200-day SMA / deep structural support |
Global Context
Operation Epic Fury — the joint U.S.–Israeli strike that killed Iranian Supreme Leader Khamenei and triggered Iran’s closure of the Strait of Hormuz — dominated global markets. Brent surged 9.1% to $79.45 (intraday high $82.37, the highest since January 2025), and WTI jumped 8.4% to $72.74. Gold hit $5,408/oz on safe-haven flows. The DXY climbed to 98.56, a 5-week high.
Wall Street staged an intraday reversal: the S&P 500 recovered from −1.2% to close essentially flat at 6,881.62, while the Nasdaq clawed back from −1.6% to finish +0.36%. Defense stocks led (Northrop Grumman +6%, Palantir +5.8%) and airlines cratered (Carnival −10.6%, American Airlines −4.9%). However, overnight futures pointed sharply lower for Tuesday — S&P −0.9%, Nasdaq −1.2% — as the conflict intensified with Iranian retaliation across the Gulf.
For Chile, the transmission mechanism is unambiguously negative. As XTB analyst Emanoelle Santos explained, higher crude raises costs, revives imported inflation fears, and narrows the window for monetary easing — precisely the opposite of what the economy needs given the weak Imacec. Unlike Colombia, Argentina, or Brazil, Chile has no meaningful energy export sector to offset the pain. Copper, Chile’s export lifeline, fell 1.37% as a stronger dollar and weaker growth expectations pressured base metals. The net result: Chile absorbs the full cost of the oil shock with none of the revenue benefits, making its IPSA the most vulnerable index in the region.
Looking Ahead
Tuesday, March 3: Markets digest the Imacec shock and ongoing Iran developments. Watch for any BCCh communication on the growth outlook. Asian markets opened sharply lower overnight (Nikkei −3.06%, Hang Seng −1.25%), setting a negative tone for global equities.
Friday, March 6: U.S. Non-Farm Payrolls. A strong print would reinforce the Fed pause, support the dollar, and add further pressure to the peso and EM assets broadly. A weak print could provide some relief.
March 11: Inauguration of President José Antonio Kast. This is a pivotal political catalyst — his pro-market, pro-investment platform has been a medium-term tailwind for Chilean assets. However, as Bloomberg Línea notes, initial presidential transitions often trigger cautious dollar-buying as investors evaluate the speed and depth of announced measures. The market will look for concrete signals on tax reform, mining investment, and regulatory modernization.
BCCh March meeting: Before the Imacec surprise, the market was pricing a 25bp cut to 4.25% (one BCCh board member had already advocated for a 50bp cut at the previous meeting). The weak activity data strengthens the case for easing, but the oil shock complicates the picture by raising inflation risks. This tension will define the BCCh’s reaction function for months.
March 18: BCCh publishes GDP estimate for 2025 and revisions for 2023–2024 — a data point that could recalibrate the growth narrative heading into Q2.
Verdict
Chile received the worst possible combination of shocks on Monday: a global oil spike that it cannot monetize, a domestic activity contraction that undercuts the growth story, and a copper decline that weakens its currency anchor. The result was the worst equity performance in Latin America, with the IPSA falling 3.02% to 10,549 — now 10% below its January 28 all-time high of 11,721.
Technically, the picture is deteriorating rapidly. The IPSA has broken below the Ichimoku cloud for the first time since October 2025, RSI is approaching oversold territory at 34.63 on the slow line, and the MACD is deeply negative with no signs of convergence. The 200-SMA at 9,405 sits 11% below current levels, providing a structural floor but also illustrating how much downside risk remains if the correction deepens.
The resolution hinges on three variables: oil prices, copper, and the Kast inauguration. If Brent retreats below $75 and copper stabilizes above $6/lb, the IPSA could find support near 10,400–10,567 and begin a recovery into the cloud. If oil sustains above $80 and copper continues to slide, the index faces a path toward 10,000 — a level that would erase the entire 2026 rally. The Kast transition on March 11 is the wild card: a strong, reform-oriented inauguration could restore institutional confidence and attract the foreign capital that Chile needs to offset the macro headwinds. The peso, meanwhile, may test $890–$900 before finding a floor, with the BCCh caught between growth weakness (cut) and imported inflation risk (hold).