B3 / Ibovespa Daily Report · March 4, 2026 · Covering March 3 Session
The Big Three
Ibovespa suffers worst session since the December 5 “Flávio Day,” losing 6,202 points. The index plunged as deep as 180,518 (−4.64%) intraday before paring losses to close at 183,104.87 (−3.28%). Only two of 85 stocks in the theoretical portfolio finished positive — Raízen (+6.15%) and Braskem (+3.24%) — as the Hormuz closure and Iran’s Supreme Leader death triggered a global risk-off wave.
Selic cut expectations shrink from 50 bps to 25 bps as oil spike threatens inflation. Brent crude surged to $82.14 (+5.8%), its highest since July 2024. XP estimates each $10/bbl rise adds ~40 bps to IPCA in 2026, shifting the DI curve sharply higher and forcing the market to reprice the Copom’s March 17–18 meeting from a 50 bps cut to just 25 bps.
Banks lead the rout: Itaú −3.35%, BTG −5.86%, while Petrobras fades after Monday’s surge. The financial sector — the Ibovespa’s heaviest weight — suffered its worst two-day stretch of 2026, with Itaú PN now down 5.09% since March began. Petrobras, which rallied over 4% on Monday, reversed to close −0.74% (ON) and −0.44% (PN) despite Brent climbing another 5.8%. Vale ON shed 4.17% on global demand fears.
01 Session Data
| Metric | Value | Change |
| Ibovespa Close | 183,104.87 | −3.28% |
| Session High | 189,602.38 | open gap down |
| Session Low | 180,518.33 | −4.64% intraday |
| USD/BRL | 5.2652 | +1.92% |
| DXY | 99.22 | +0.92% |
| S&P 500 | 6,816.63 | −0.94% |
| Nasdaq | 22,516.69 | −1.02% |
| VIX | 25.95 | +20.8% |
| Brent Crude | $82.14 | +5.8% |
| Iron Ore (SGX) | $99.05 | −0.21% |
| Gold | $5,161.50 | −2.8% |
| Bitcoin | $65,920 | −2.1% |
02 Key Movers
| Ticker | Close (R$) | Change |
| RAIZ4 (Raízen) | 0.69 | +6.15% |
| BRKM5 (Braskem) | 9.55 | +3.24% |
| PCAR3 (GPA) | 2.59 | −17.78% |
| VALE3 (Vale) | — | −4.17% |
| ITUB4 (Itaú) | — | −3.35% |
| BPAC11 (BTG) | — | −5.86% |
03 Market Commentary
Tuesday’s session exposed the limits of Monday’s Petrobras-driven resilience. After the index held remarkably well on the first trading day of the Iran conflict — closing green at 189,307 — the Hormuz escalation overnight tore through the fragile calm. The IRGC’s formal closure of the strait, the death of Iran’s Supreme Leader, and Israeli strikes on Lebanon combined to produce the widest single-day selling since the “Flávio Day” political shock of December 5, 2025.
The rate-cut repricing was the session’s most consequential shift. Since January, the market had priced a 50 bps Selic cut at the March Copom meeting, consistent with the BCB’s own forward guidance. Now, with Brent at $82 and energy-driven inflation risk reaccelerating, the DI curve has adjusted sharply upward and the consensus has dropped to 25 bps. Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari called it premature to assess the war’s inflation impact, while New York Fed’s John Williams warned of short-term inflation risk — both hawkish signals for EM rate-sensitive assets.
Domestic data landed in the background. Brazil’s Q4 2025 GDP grew just 0.1% quarter-on-quarter, bringing the full year to 2.3% — the weakest since the pandemic. XP economist Rodolfo Margato noted the growth was concentrated in less cyclical sectors like agribusiness and extractive industries. January’s Caged report showed 112,334 formal jobs created, above the 92,000 expected, but Margato flagged a deceleration in the average pace of hiring from 135,000 in H1 to 80,000 in H2 2025.
Globally, the rout was universal. The Stoxx 600 sank 3.18% for a second consecutive day of heavy losses. Japan’s Nikkei fell 3.06%, and South Korea’s Kospi crashed 7.24% — its worst day since the August 2024 yen carry-trade shock — after reopening from a Monday holiday. Trump’s announcement cutting all trade relations with Spain added another layer of geopolitical anxiety. The S&P 500 lost 0.94% after being down as much as 2.5% intraday, trimming losses only after Trump pledged U.S. Navy escorts for tankers through the Strait of Hormuz.
04 Technical Analysis
Daily (1D):
Tuesday’s bearish engulfing candle obliterated the Ichimoku Cloud’s bullish structure. The close at 183,105 sliced through the Tenkan-sen (now at 185,338) and plunged toward the Kijun-sen (183,105 — almost perfectly aligned with the close). The Senkou Span A sits at 174,717 and Span B at 174,487, meaning the cloud remains far below price, but the speed of this decline raises the probability of a test of the mid-Bollinger Band at 180,772.
The MACD histogram flipped decisively negative at −1,085.81, with the MACD line at 3,682.79 and signal at 4,768.59 — a bearish crossover is imminent if not already confirmed on the daily. The RSI dropped sharply from overbought territory, with the fast line at 48.86 and slow at 67.31, indicating rapid momentum loss. The 200-day SMA sits at 150,998 — over 17% below — underscoring this remains a secular uptrend despite the near-term violence.
| Level | Points | Reference |
| R3 | 192,624 | ATH intraday (Feb 25) |
| R2 | 189,602 | Mar 3 session high |
| R1 | 185,339 | Tenkan-sen |
| S1 | 183,105 | Kijun-sen / close |
| S2 | 180,772 | Bollinger midline |
| S3 | 174,717 | Senkou Span A |
| S4 | 150,999 | 200-day SMA |
05 Forward Look
Iran and Hormuz Duration:
The conflict’s duration is now the dominant variable. Trump warned it could continue for more than four weeks. If the Hormuz closure persists and Brent breaches $100, inflation expectations de-anchor and the DI curve could reprice toward 16%+, fundamentally altering the 2026 rally thesis. A rapid resolution would restore the pre-conflict rate-cut path.
Copom March 17–18:
The BCB faces an impossible choice — cut into an oil shock or hold and risk choking a slowing economy. The February IPCA reading (due March 12) will be decisive. If oil prices moderate before then, a 50 bps cut remains possible; if not, even 25 bps becomes contentious.
China NPC and Iron Ore:
China’s annual parliamentary session opens March 5, with Premier Li Qiang set to announce the 2026 growth target. Steel production curbs ahead of the meeting and record portside iron ore stockpiles are keeping ore prices subdued near $99. Any stimulus surprise could lift Vale and the broader mining complex.
Verdict
Monday’s relief proved fleeting. The Ibovespa surrendered all of 2026 March gains in a single session, and the technical picture has deteriorated sharply — a Kijun-sen test, a MACD bearish crossover, and RSI plunging out of overbought territory form a trifecta of warning signals. The VIX at 25.95, its highest close since November, confirms the risk-off posture is intensifying rather than fading.
The rate repricing is the real damage. The shift from 50 bps to 25 bps of expected Selic cuts reprices every rate-sensitive sector on B3 — banks, real estate, utilities, and retail. Santander units are already negative for 2026. If Brent stays above $80, the inflation pass-through begins within weeks, and the BCB may have to signal a pause rather than a cut.
The structural bull case is not broken — the 200-SMA is 17% below, foreign flows in 2026 have exceeded all of 2025, and Petrobras provides a natural hedge in an oil-shock environment. But near-term, the index is in a “show-me” mode where geopolitics dictate direction. The Bollinger midline at 180,772 is the line in the sand; a close below there opens the path toward the Ichimoku cloud at 174,700.
Bias: BEARISH — downgraded from Bullish (overbought). Hold above 180,772 needed to stabilize; below that, 174,700 cloud support is the next battleground.
This report is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. Past performance is not indicative of future results. All data sourced from B3, TradingView, Trading Economics, CNBC, InfoMoney, Reuters, and institutional research. Verify all figures independently before making investment decisions.