B3 / Ibovespa Daily Report · February 25, 2026 · Covering February 24 Session
The Big Three
Ibovespa smashes through 191,000 for the first time, posting its 13th record close in 2026 at 191,490.40. The intraday high of 191,780.77 also set a new all-time record. Blue chips Petrobras (+2.54%), Vale, and Itau Unibanco led the advance as foreign capital continued pouring in. Itau BBA’s Diario do Grafista declared the index is “on the road to 200,000 points.”
Foreign inflows reach R$35.6 billion ($6.9B) YTD through February 20 — JPMorgan calls the pace “unprecedented.” The rotation from U.S. growth into EM value continues to accelerate, with the Ibovespa in dollar terms leading global gains year-to-date. Short-covering by domestic funds amplifies the move, as operators scramble to close positions against the relentless rally.
Wall Street rebounds as AI disruption fears ease: S&P 500 +0.77%, Nasdaq +1.04% after AMD-Meta data center deal. The recovery in U.S. tech provided a tailwind for B3, with the software sector stabilizing after Monday’s rout. Fed’s Goolsbee said he is “optimistic” about more rate cuts by year-end 2026 but cautioned against moving too early.
01Session Data
| Metric | Value | Change |
|---|---|---|
| Ibovespa Close | 191,490.40 | +1.40% |
| Session High | 191,780.77 | ATH intraday |
| Session Low | 188,854.45 | opening level |
| USD/BRL | 5.1556 | −0.27% |
| DXY | 97.75 | +0.11% |
| S&P 500 | 6,890.07 | +0.77% |
| Dow Jones | 49,174.50 | +0.76% |
| Nasdaq | 22,863.68 | +1.04% |
| VIX | 19.55 | −6.95% |
| Brent Crude | $71.18 | +0.10% |
| Iron Ore (62% Fe SGX) | $96.70 | +0.89% |
| Gold | $5,208 | +0.62% |
| Bitcoin | $64,183 | −1.05% |
02Key Movers
| Stock | Sector | Change | Catalyst |
|---|---|---|---|
| VIVT3 | Telecom | +3.27% | Strong Q4 earnings, net income R$1.88B ($365M) (+6.5% YoY) |
| PETR4 | Energy | +2.54% | Foreign flow + oil resilience despite late-session crude fade |
| VALE3 | Mining | +1.74% | Foreign flow; stable iron ore despite Dalian holiday gap-down |
| ITUB4 | Financials | +0.61% | Foreign inflow into blue-chip banks; lead beneficiary of EM rotation |
| GGBR4 | Steel | −2.22% | Q4 results: net profit −21.1% YoY, weak Brazil ops |
| BEEF3 | Food | −4.43% | Analyst downgrade + price target cut |
03Market Commentary
The Ibovespa powered to its 13th record close of 2026, finishing at 191,490.40 after touching an all-time intraday high of 191,780.77. The session was driven by a familiar trio: Petrobras (+2.54%), Vale, and Itau Unibanco, which continue to absorb the bulk of foreign capital flowing into Brazilian equities. Volume reached R$32.98 billion ($6.4B). The dollar fell to R$5.1556, its lowest close since May 28, 2024, as the real extended its winning streak on the back of sustained foreign inflows.
JPMorgan strategists highlighted that while January typically brings strong foreign inflows, the current pace is without precedent. Through February 20, foreign investors have poured R$35.6 billion ($6.9B) into B3 year-to-date. Felipe Cima at Manchester Investimentos noted the market should continue its upward trend, driven primarily by foreign investment. Josias Bento of GT Capital added that the largest gains are concentrated in blue chips, which are the primary beneficiaries of the foreign bid.
The recovery on Wall Street provided an important tailwind. The S&P 500 rose 0.77% and the Nasdaq gained 1.04% as AI disruption fears eased following AMD’s multibillion-dollar data center deal with Meta. The VIX dropped nearly 7% to 19.55, signalling a meaningful de-escalation in volatility. Frederico Nobre of Warren Investimentos observed that the Brazilian market is responding to the global rotation dynamic, with flows migrating from U.S. growth into emerging market value plays.
On the downside, Gerdau fell 2.22% after reporting a 21.1% decline in Q4 net profit with weak domestic operations, while Minerva dropped 4.43% on an analyst downgrade. The earnings season continues to deliver mixed results, but the market’s trajectory remains dictated by flow rather than fundamentals. A BTG Pactual survey showed 49% of fund managers now believe the Ibovespa has reached “fair value,” suggesting the easy gains from the valuation re-rating may be behind us — though the foreign bid shows no sign of slowing.
04Technical Analysis
Daily (1D):
The Ibovespa closed at 191,490.40, pressing directly against the upper Bollinger Band at 191,490. This alignment of price with the BB upper is a classic sign of a strong trend — but also flags potential exhaustion if the band fails to expand further. The Tenkan-sen at 188,365 provides immediate support, while the Kijun-sen at 185,331 offers secondary support. The Ichimoku cloud spans 178,584–182,700 (Span B to Span A), well below price, confirming the deeply bullish structure. The 200-day SMA at 149,730 is 28% below the current level, underscoring the parabolic nature of this rally.
Momentum indicators are flashing caution. The RSI reads 70.46 (fast) and 70.21 (slow), both touching the 70 overbought threshold — the highest readings since the January breakout. The MACD lines at 5,422.92/5,234.24 remain positive, but the histogram at −188.69 has turned negative, signalling that upward momentum is decelerating even as price makes new highs. This bearish divergence between price (new ATH) and MACD histogram (negative) warrants monitoring. A pullback toward the Tenkan-sen at 188,365 would be healthy; a break below the Kijun at 185,331 would signal a more meaningful correction.
| Level | Price | Reference |
|---|---|---|
| Resistance 3 | 200,000 | Psychological target (Itau BBA) |
| Resistance 2 | 193,150 | Feb 20 high (prior ATH) |
| Resistance 1 | 191,781 | Session ATH intraday |
| Pivot | 191,490 | BB upper / close |
| Support 1 | 188,365 | Tenkan-sen |
| Support 2 | 185,331 | Kijun-sen |
| Support 3 | 182,700 | Cloud top (Senkou Span A) |
05Forward Look
Nvidia Earnings and AI Sentiment.
Nvidia reports after the bell Wednesday. Given the intense AI-disruption sell-off that hammered software stocks this week, any guidance surprise — positive or negative — will ripple through global risk assets. A strong print could extend the tech rebound and reinforce the tailwind for B3; a miss could reignite the software displacement trade and pressure emerging markets.
Tariff Formalization and Section 122.
The Trump administration was working Tuesday on a formal executive order to raise Section 122 tariffs from 10% to 15%. While the average duty on Brazilian exports remains below the 2025 peak rates, steel stocks (Gerdau, CSN) remain vulnerable to any sector-specific escalation. State of the Union address Tuesday evening could provide further clarity.
Earnings Calendar and Fair Value Debate.
C&A, GPA, Iguatemi, and ISA Energia report after market close Tuesday. BTG Pactual’s sentiment survey showing 49% of managers at “fair value” suggests the market is transitioning from a valuation re-rating to a stock-picker’s market. Continued foreign flow is the sine qua non of further upside — any reversal in EM rotation would trigger a sharp correction given stretched positioning.
Verdict
The Ibovespa’s advance to 191,490 is a structural breakout driven by the most powerful foreign flow in the exchange’s history. With R$35.6 billion ($6.9B) in year-to-date inflows and the index up 18.85%, Brazil is capturing the global rotation out of U.S. growth and into EM value. The trend is your friend — until the flow reverses.
Technically, the RSI at 70.21/70.46 is at the overbought threshold and the MACD histogram has turned negative even as price makes new highs — a classic bearish divergence. The close directly on the upper Bollinger Band leaves little room for error. Any exogenous shock (tariff escalation, Iran, or a reversal in EM rotation) could trigger a rapid pullback to the Tenkan-sen at 188,365 or the Kijun at 185,331.
The fundamental case remains compelling: high real yields (Selic 15%), deep market liquidity, cheap valuations relative to DM, and a weakening dollar all support the carry trade. But 49% of fund managers at “fair value” is a warning sign. The market is increasingly dependent on flow, not value — and flow-driven rallies end abruptly when positioning gets too crowded.
Bias: BULLISH · trend intact but tactically overbought, watch RSI divergence