— Finance Minister Fernando Haddad was confirmed as the PT’s candidate for São Paulo governor, ending months of resistance to Lula’s direct pressure to run
— Datafolha’s latest poll shows Governor Tarcísio de Freitas leading Haddad 44% to 31% in first-round simulations and 52% to 37% in a direct runoff — a steep deficit to overcome
— The PT has never won São Paulo’s governorship, but Lula considers the state’s 34 million voters essential to his own reelection chances against Flávio Bolsonaro
Fernando Haddad confirmed his candidacy for São Paulo governor on Thursday night, ending months of resistance and accepting a mission his own allies privately describe as nearly impossible. The Rio Times, the Latin American financial news outlet, reports that the finance minister made the announcement alongside President Lula at the Metalworkers’ Union in São Bernardo do Campo — the cradle of the Workers’ Party — declaring he was running “to win, not to bargain.”
Haddad will leave the Finance Ministry on Friday, with his departure published in the official gazette. Secretary Dario Durigan takes over Brazil’s economic portfolio. The announcement sets up a rematch of the 2022 race, when Haddad lost to Governor Tarcísio de Freitas by roughly ten points in the runoff.
The Numbers Haddad Must Overcome
The latest Datafolha poll paints a daunting picture. Tarcísio leads Haddad 44% to 31% in the main first-round scenario and beats him 52% to 37% in a simulated runoff. The incumbent governor’s approval rating stands at 66%, with 45% of Paulistas rating his administration as good or excellent.
Haddad carries the highest rejection rate of any tested candidate at 38% — a legacy of three consecutive electoral defeats in 2016, 2018, and 2022. PT strategists counter that name recognition and his record managing Brazil’s economy give him a floor that no other left-aligned candidate could match in the country’s most populous state.
Why Lula Needs This Race
The São Paulo governor’s race is not just about São Paulo. The state holds 34 million voters — more than most European countries — and functions as the decisive battlefield in Lula’s reelection campaign against senator Flávio Bolsonaro. In 2022, Lula won the presidency by just 1.8 percentage points, and his performance in São Paulo’s capital was critical to that razor-thin margin.
If Tarcísio wins reelection easily, he becomes free to campaign full-time as Flávio Bolsonaro’s most powerful national surrogate in the final weeks before the presidential runoff. Lula’s strategists calculate that a competitive Haddad candidacy — even one that loses — can prevent the right from opening a devastating margin in São Paulo and protect the president’s path to a fourth term.
Can Haddad Defy History?
The PT has never won a São Paulo gubernatorial election. The party reached the runoff only twice — with José Genoíno in 2002 and Haddad in 2022. Haddad’s 44.7% in the last runoff remains the best performance by any PT candidate in the state, a fact allies cite as proof he can at least make the race competitive.
His campaign will likely target Tarcísio’s vulnerabilities on public security — police killings rose 61% under his watch — and the privatization of water utility Sabesp, which remains unpopular among lower-income voters. Lula’s government will also claim credit for federal investments in São Paulo, a message aimed at the hundreds of interior-city mayors who attended Thursday’s Caravana Federativa event.
Vice President Geraldo Alckmin, a four-time São Paulo governor who knows the state’s conservative interior better than any PT figure, is expected to campaign actively for Haddad. Planning Minister Simone Tebet will run for the Senate from São Paulo, adding a centrist name to the ticket that could broaden the coalition’s appeal beyond the left’s traditional base.
Haddad himself acknowledged the scale of the challenge but rejected the narrative of sacrifice. The real question is whether a finance minister who tamed inflation and delivered GDP growth can translate a national economic record into votes in a state that has resisted the PT for three decades — or whether the true objective is simply keeping the margin close enough for Lula to win the war that matters most.