Key Points
- U.S. jobs grew slowly (50k) but wages stayed firm; housing starts cooled while permits held up.
- Europe’s goods pulse split: Germany’s exports fell and its surplus shrank, but output rose and Spain’s industry surged.
- EM inflation stayed manageable in Brazil and Mexico, while India’s credit growth accelerated and reserves slipped.
United States
Labor stayed resilient but slower. Nonfarm payrolls rose 50k and unemployment fell to 4.4% (U6 8.4%). Wages ran hot: average hourly earnings rose 0.3% m/m and 3.8% y/y, while hours held at 34.2.
Housing was mixed: October starts fell to 1.246M (−4.6% m/m) while permits held near 1.412M (−0.2% m/m). September permits were revised up to 1.415M (+6.4% m/m) and starts 1.306M (+1.2% m/m).
Sentiment improved (Michigan 54.0) but inflation expectations ticked higher (1-year 4.2%; 5-year 3.4%). GDPNow eased to 5.1%. Oil rigs dipped to 409 (total 542).
Read-through: demand holds, wage pressure persists, and housing is cooling at the margin.
Europe and UK
Germany delivered the key disappointment. Exports fell −2.5% m/m as imports rose 0.8%, shrinking the trade surplus to €13.1B from €17.2B.
Industrial production still rose 0.8% m/m and 0.76% y/y, so the factory floor is not collapsing. France softened: consumer spending −0.3% m/m and output −0.1% m/m.
Spain was the outlier on the upside: industrial production jumped 4.5% y/y. Eurozone retail rose 0.2% m/m and 2.3% y/y.
Italy’s retail rose 0.5% m/m (1.3% y/y) and 12-month BOTs priced at 2.112%. Spain’s business confidence slipped to −3.5.
Switzerland’s unemployment rose to 3.1% n.s.a., with reserves at $725.4B. Norway’s CPI rose to 3.2% y/y and PPI fell −11.4% y/y, keeping imported inflation pressure low.
Message: Europe is growing unevenly and living on services plus disinflation.
Asia-Pacific
Japan’s outlook improved while the present softened. The leading index rose to 110.5, but the coincident indicator fell −0.7% m/m.
India’s credit accelerated: loan growth 14.5% and deposit growth 12.7%. FX reserves slipped to $686.8B from $696.6B.
Read-through: demand support is strong, but buffers are slightly thinner.
Latin America and Africa
Mexico’s industry stabilized: 0.6% m/m and −0.8% y/y. Brazil’s inflation cooled: IPCA 0.33% m/m and 4.26% y/y; the seasonally adjusted gauge rose 0.26% m/m.
That keeps a disinflation narrative intact. South Africa’s vehicle sales were strong y/y, but levels were softer; the broader macro picture remains uneven.
OPEC supply shifts were marginal: Iran 3.24M (down), Libya 1.30M (up), Nigeria 1.53M (up), Venezuela 0.88M (down). No shock signal.
Positioning and risk
CFTC showed lighter crude length and heavier EUR length. BRL net longs fell sharply to 17.6k from 42.1k, while MXN net longs rose to 109.3k. That matches the flow-sensitive split: Mexico is favored; Brazil still needs stable inflows.
What it means
The global story is a soft landing with pockets of strain. U.S. wage pressure is the main inflation risk. Europe’s smaller surplus raises sensitivity to energy and FX.
India’s credit acceleration supports demand, but falling reserves reduce cushion. In LATAM, inflation looks manageable, but flows drive price.
Tilt: keep quality duration; prefer U.S. services and defensive cyclicals; be selective in Europe until German exports turn; favor MXN over BRL until Brazil’s flow picture stabilizes.