Two months ago, the question in Brazilian politics was whether anyone could seriously challenge Lula in October’s presidential election. That question has been answered. An Atlas/Bloomberg poll released Wednesday shows Senator Flávio Bolsonaro — the eldest son of imprisoned ex-president Jair Bolsonaro — statistically tied with Lula in a simulated second round, 46.3% to 46.2%. It is the first time the two have been level in the poll series.
How the Gap Disappeared
The speed of the shift is striking. In December, Lula led Flávio by 12 points. By January, that margin had narrowed to 49.2% versus 44.9%. Now it has vanished entirely. The movement is coming from both directions: Lula dropped three percentage points since January while Flávio gained 1.4. The survey of 4,986 respondents was conducted between February 19 and 24, with a margin of error of one percentage point.
The poll was fielded in the days immediately following Carnival, when the Acadêmicos de Niterói samba school paraded a section titled “Neoconservatives in a Jar,” drawing sharp criticism from evangelical communities — a crucial voting bloc that helped propel Jair Bolsonaro to the presidency in 2018 and now forms the backbone of his son’s support. The survey did not include questions about the controversy, so a direct causal link cannot be established, but the timing is conspicuous.
The broader backdrop matters too. Jair Bolsonaro was convicted in September 2025 of leading a coup attempt after his 2022 election defeat — a plot that included plans to kill Lula, Vice President Alckmin and the presiding Supreme Court justice. He began serving a 27-year sentence in November after violating his house arrest conditions. His imprisonment has not weakened his political dynasty; if anything, it has galvanized it. Markets have tracked the polling closely since Jair endorsed Flávio from prison in December over the more market-friendly Tarcísio, sending the real and Brazilian equities sliding.
Not Just Flávio
The erosion is not limited to one challenger. São Paulo Governor Tarcísio de Freitas, who has said he will seek reelection but whose name is consistently tested in presidential scenarios, now edges past Lula 47.1% to 45.9% — another statistical tie, but a reversal from January when the president led 49.1% to 45.4%. Tarcísio has publicly backed Flávio’s candidacy, though market participants had initially hoped the governor would run himself, given his more moderate economic profile. When Jair Bolsonaro endorsed his son instead of Tarcísio from prison in December, Brazilian stocks and the real both fell.
First Round Still Lula’s
Lula continues to lead every first-round scenario tested, polling between 43% and 47%, with Flávio at 33% to 40% depending on the configuration. In one scenario where Finance Minister Fernando Haddad replaces Lula as the ruling party’s candidate, the minister draws 39.1% against Flávio’s 37.1% — a margin barely within error range. Lula beats all other potential runoff opponents except his father, Jair Bolsonaro, who remains tied with the president but is serving a 27-year sentence for leading a coup attempt and is barred from running until 2030.
A Country Split Down the Middle
Perhaps the most revealing question was about fear. Asked which outcome would worry them more, 47.5% of respondents said Lula’s reelection, while 44.9% said a Flávio Bolsonaro victory. Lula also carries the highest rejection rate among tested political figures at 48.2%, followed by Flávio at 46.4%. Eight months before the vote, Brazil is not merely polarized — it is symmetrically divided. The 80-year-old president who once seemed destined for a comfortable fourth term now faces a race that the numbers say he could lose.