Europe Intelligence Brief for Thursday, February 24, 2026

What matters today

1. Hungary’s Double Veto: Electoral Survival at Ukraine’s Expense

Hungary blocked both the EU’s 20th sanctions package against Russia and the €90 billion loan to fund Ukraine’s defence through 2027. Orbán demands the resumption of Russian oil flows through the Druzhba pipeline and broke a December promise not to obstruct the loan. The IMF’s $8.2 billion programme for Ukraine is conditional on the EU loan proceeding. Without it, Kyiv faces a budget gap as early as April.

EU foreign policy chief Kaja Kallas called the outcome “a setback and a message we didn’t want to send,” while Poland’s Sikorski accused Orbán of electoral posturing ahead of Hungary’s April 12 vote. The EU separately reduced the size of Russia’s diplomatic mission in Brussels. Slovakia’s PM Fico has threatened to cut emergency electricity to Ukraine unless Kyiv restores oil transit. The timing on the war’s fourth anniversary amplifies the diplomatic damage, exposing the limits of EU unanimity requirements.

2. Turnberry Deal Collapse: Transatlantic Trade Architecture Fractures

The European Parliament suspended ratification of the EU–US Turnberry trade deal after the Supreme Court struck down Trump’s IEEPA tariffs and the president immediately imposed a 10% global levy under Section 122 of the Trade Act of 1974. The tariff took effect on February 24 at 10%, though Trump had threatened to raise it to 15% — the legal maximum under Section 122, which can remain in place for 150 days.

Trade committee chair Bernd Lange declared the legal instrument used to negotiate the Turnberry Deal “no longer available” and described the situation as “pure tariff chaos.” The EU Commission warned: “A deal is a deal. EU products must continue to benefit from the most competitive treatment.” ECB President Lagarde warned that business relations could take a sustained hit. The deal, signed at Trump’s Turnberry golf resort in July 2025, set a 15% tariff cap on most EU goods and was credited with helping Europe avoid recession last year. Trade between the blocs amounts to €4.6 billion per day.

3. Flamingo Strikes Votkinsk: Ukraine Reaches Russia’s Strategic Missile Production

Ukraine’s FP-5 Flamingo cruise missiles struck the Votkinsk Machine Building Plant in Udmurtia on February 20, roughly 1,300 kilometres from the front line. Satellite imagery confirmed a 30-by-24-metre hole in the roof of Workshop 19, which stamps and forms missile hull elements including for the Iskander-M and Topol-M systems. Eleven people were reported injured. The strike is the deepest confirmed Flamingo attack to date.

The Flamingo is developed by Ukrainian firm Fire Point, which has opened a solid rocket propellant facility in Denmark near Skrydstrup Air Base. Serial production targets 210 units per month. The attack carries severe escalation implications: Russia’s Karaganov has renewed calls to lower the nuclear threshold, and regional officials stated the attack “cannot go unpunished.” For Europe, the question is whether the Flamingo’s British design origins and Danish manufacturing make Western capitals complicit in strikes on Russia’s nuclear infrastructure.

4. Jetten Takes Office: Netherlands Pivots Back Toward EU Core

Rob Jetten, 38, was sworn in as the Netherlands’ youngest-ever and first openly gay prime minister on February 23. His D66-led minority coalition with VVD and CDA holds 66 of 150 seats, meaning every piece of legislation requires opposition support. The government formed 117 days after an October 29 election that Jetten’s party won by a narrow margin over Geert Wilders’ PVV. It replaces Dick Schoof’s 11-month right-wing administration, one of the shortest in Dutch history.

Jetten has pledged to return the Netherlands “to the heart of Europe” and continue strong support for Ukraine. New Defence Minister Dilan Yesilgöz stated: “If we want freedom to prevail, the Netherlands and Europe must take matters into their own hands.” Foreign Minister Tom Berendsen (CDA) is expected to rejuvenate Dutch influence in Brussels. Jetten has advocated raising defence spending from 2% to 3% of GDP, reflecting Europe’s broader shift toward strategic autonomy.

5. Coalition of Willing Operationalised; FCAS Crisis Deepens

The UK Ministry of Defence activated a Coalition of the Willing command post with approximately 70 military personnel, establishing a coordination centre parallel to the US-led facility in Wiesbaden. Macron and Starmer chaired a Coalition video conference on the war’s anniversary. The 34-nation coalition, backed by a UK/France Declaration of Intent signed in January, commits to post-ceasefire troop deployment across all domains. Starmer has committed £1.6 billion for 5,000 air defence missiles manufactured in Belfast.

Separately, Europe’s defence industrial base faces deepening fractures. Chancellor Merz publicly questioned FCAS viability on February 19, saying Germany “doesn’t need” a carrier-capable nuclear fighter. Berlin is exploring 35+ additional F-35A purchases from Lockheed Martin. France warned it could withdraw from the joint MGCS tank programme in retaliation. The GCAP rival programme (UK-Japan-Italy) targets 2035, five years ahead of FCAS 2040. In Italy, prosecutors are investigating the disappearance of 2,500 military aircraft parts worth €17 million from Air Force depots in Brindisi, with a suspected South American diversion route.

Assessment

Europe enters the fifth year of Russia’s war facing a three-front institutional crisis: Hungary’s double veto exposes the fragility of unanimity-based decision-making at the worst possible moment; the Turnberry Deal collapse strips the transatlantic trade relationship of its legal foundation; and the FCAS impasse reveals a defence industrial base unable to converge on basic requirements despite unprecedented spending commitments.

Ukraine’s Flamingo strike on Votkinsk represents a qualitative escalation — for the first time, a European-designed, partly European-manufactured weapon has reached Russia’s strategic missile production infrastructure. The nuclear dimension of this development will dominate European security calculations in the weeks ahead, particularly as Danish and British complicity comes under scrutiny from Moscow.

Jetten’s pro-EU pivot in The Hague and the Merzoni axis between Berlin and Rome offer institutional ballast, but the gap between Europe’s rhetorical ambition — €150B SAFE instrument, Coalition of Willing, 3–5% defence targets — and its operational delivery remains Europe’s defining vulnerability. Markets are pricing stability (Stoxx 600 near records); the security architecture tells a different story.

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