Key Points
Ask Brazilians what keeps them up at night and the answer is not the cost of living. It is corruption and crime — by a margin so wide that the economy barely registers. That is the central finding of a new AtlasIntel/Bloomberg poll that reframes the political landscape eight months before the presidential election.
What the Numbers Show
Respondents were asked to select up to three issues from a list of national problems. Corruption led at 54.3%, followed closely by crime and drug trafficking at 53.3%. The economy and inflation came a distant third at 19.2%. Violence against women ranked fourth at 16.4%, followed by political extremism and polarization at 15.7%, healthcare at 15.5% and education at 15.3%.
The weakening of democracy — the issue that dominated the 2022 election — was cited by just 13.9% of respondents. The poll surveyed 4,986 Brazilians by random digital recruitment from February 19 to 24, with a margin of error of one percentage point.
A Perception at Odds With the Data
The depth of public anxiety about crime is striking. Nearly half of respondents, 49.6%, described the current level of criminality as “very high,” with another 38.8% calling it “high.” Virtually no one — 0.1% — said it was low. Among specific threats, 85.2% said drug trafficking is getting worse and 81.9% said the same about sexual violence. Most dramatically, 91.5% believe criminal organizations now control important spheres of politics and the judiciary.
These perceptions sit alongside a reality that points in the opposite direction. Brazil’s homicide rate fell to 17.9 per 100,000 inhabitants in 2024 — the lowest in over a decade — with 38,075 intentional killings, a 6% drop from the prior year and a 16% cumulative decline since 2020. The gap between falling murder rates and rising fear suggests that crime’s changing nature — the expansion of organized networks, digital scams and territorial control by groups like the PCC and Comando Vermelho — matters more to voters than aggregate statistics.
What It Means for October
The poll’s electoral implications are direct. Over 90% of respondents said crime influences their vote: 62.8% called it important alongside other issues, while 27.6% said anti-crime policies are among the primary factors determining their ballot. Asked about solutions, 57.7% favored stricter laws, 56.9% wanted an end to corruption within the judiciary and police, and 45% called for greater investment in law enforcement.
For President Lula, whose 2022 campaign focused on poverty reduction, the data presents a vulnerability. His administration has proposed a constitutional amendment to reform public security by standardizing police strategies across Brazil’s 27 states, but it remains stalled in Congress. For opposition candidates, particularly Flávio Bolsonaro, the findings validate a campaign built around security and law-and-order messaging.
The deeper signal may be structural. When corruption and crime outpace the economy by nearly three to one as voter concerns, the election is not about growth or inflation — it is about whether Brazilians trust their institutions at all. That question will define October.