BVC / MSCI COLCAP Daily Report • March 9, 2026 • Covering March 6 Session
The Big Three
COLCAP edged down 0.32% to 2,175.41, capping a 2.1% weekly loss as election uncertainty dominated. The index shed ground for the sixth consecutive session as investors adopted a wait-and-see posture ahead of Sunday’s congressional elections. Breadth was decisively negative, with declining issues vastly outnumbering advancers, though Ecopetrol’s 9.17% surge to a 52-week high of $2,380 prevented a far deeper index-level selloff.
The peso weakened as the TRM rose to $3,795.55 for Monday, up $27.61 (+0.73%) from $3,767.94. Friday’s session saw the dollar trade between $3,770 and $3,807 on $1,444 million in turnover, closing at the session low of $3,770 after an afternoon pullback. The DXY held near 99, its highest since mid-January, on safe-haven demand. An Ecuador-Colombia trade dispute added to export-sector concerns, prompting a meeting between Trade Minister Diana Morales Rojas and 12 export sectors.
Brent crude smashed through $100/bbl on Sunday for the first time since 2022, topping $114 intraday. The US-Israeli war on Iran has shut the Strait of Hormuz to tanker traffic, disrupting roughly 20% of global oil supply and stranding an estimated 200 tankers. Iran struck Saudi Arabia’s Ras Tanura refinery and Qatari LNG facilities, taking about 20% of global LNG offline. Asia opened sharply lower Monday — Nikkei fell 7%, KOSPI plunged over 8% triggering a circuit breaker — signaling a brutal week ahead for global equities.
01 Market Snapshot
| Metric | Value | Change |
| COLCAP Close | 2,175.41 | −0.32% |
| COLCAP Weekly | — | −2.10% |
| COLCAP YTD | — | +3.87% |
| USD/COP (TRM Mar 9) | $3,795.55 | +$27.61 (+0.73%) |
| USD/COP Fri Session Close | $3,770.00 | +0.50% w/w |
| DXY (Dollar Index) | 98.92 | −0.12% |
| Brent Crude (Sunday) | ~$107.50 | +16% overnight |
| Brent Crude (Fri Close) | $92.69 | +27% w/w |
| S&P 500 | 6,740.02 | −1.33% |
| VIX | 29.49 | +24.17% |
| Gold (spot, Mar 6) | $5,097/oz | +2.0% |
02 Key Movers
| Stock | Change | Note |
| ETB | +14.35% | Session leader; closed at $55.00 — weekly gain of 10.4% |
| Ecopetrol (ECO) | +9.17% | 52-week high at $2,380; session’s top volume; Iran oil surge beneficiary |
| Grupo Argos (ARG) | +3.25% | Closed at $15,900; infrastructure play holds up |
| Grupo Aval Pf (GAA_p) | −5.01% | Closed at $740; financials under broad pressure |
| Mineros (MAS) | −5.56% | Closed at $17,000; −18.6% weekly — worst decliner |
| Grupo Cibest (CIBEST) | −3.21% | Closed at $80,140; heavyweight drag on the index |
03 Market Commentary
Friday’s session on the BVC was a tale of two markets. The COLCAP closed at 2,175.41, down just 0.32% on the day, but the headline number masks the depth of the underlying selloff. Without Ecopetrol’s explosive 9.17% rally to $2,380 — the heaviest-traded name on the session — the index drawdown would have been far more severe. Ecopetrol hit a 52-week high as surging crude prices from the Iran conflict transformed the state oil company into the market’s sole pillar of support.
The rest of the board told a starkly different story. The financial sector bore the brunt of the selling: Grupo Aval Pf fell 5.01% to $740, Grupo Cibest shed 3.21% to $80,140, and Mineros plunged 5.56% to $17,000. On a weekly basis, the damage was even more striking — Mineros collapsed 18.6%, Pf Davigrp tumbled 13.3%, Occidente dropped 13.1%, Banco de Bogotá lost 10.1%, and Pf GrupoSura shed 9.6%. The few bright spots beyond Ecopetrol were ETB (+14.35% to $55.00, leading weekly gains at 10.4%), BHI (+2.7%), ISA (+1.8%), and Celsia (+0.7%).
The COLCAP’s 2.1% weekly decline reflected the investor caution in the run-up to Sunday’s congressional elections, compounded by the global risk-off triggered by the Iran war. The index has now fallen more than 15% from its January 27 all-time high of 2,562, though it retains a 3.87% year-to-date gain. Volume declined sharply across most names as investors moved to the sidelines, a classic pre-election liquidity withdrawal pattern.
04 Currency
The Colombian peso endured another week of pressure. The TRM for Monday March 9 was set at $3,795.55, reflecting a $27.61 increase (+0.73%) from the prior session’s $3,767.94. During Friday’s trading, USD/COP hit a high of $3,807.40 before pulling back to close at the session low of $3,770 on $1,444 million in turnover from 2,115 transactions. For the week, the dollar gained approximately 0.5% against the peso.
The broader USD/COP range over the past week was $3,740–$3,811, driven by safe-haven demand as the Iran war escalated. The DXY settled around 98.92 on Friday — its highest weekly level since mid-January — though it dipped on the session after a dismal US payrolls report showing a 92,000-job contraction in February, the biggest monthly decline since October. An additional complicating factor was the Ecuador-Colombia trade dispute, which prompted a meeting between Trade Minister Diana Morales Rojas and 12 export sectors.
05 Technical Analysis
Daily (1D):
Friday’s candle opened at 2,165.62, traded up to 2,195.98, and closed at 2,175.41 with a low of 2,165.62 — a narrow-range session reflecting pre-election hesitation. The upper wick to 2,195.98 shows attempted buying that was limited, while the identical open and low suggest the session found support early and drifted higher. Price remains well below all visible moving averages on the Bollinger Band overlay, with the bands widening to the downside.
The MACD is deeply bearish: the histogram sits at −46.43, with the MACD line at −19.02 and signal at −27.42 — all three components well below zero and confirming sustained bearish momentum. The RSI reads 45.17 with the slow component at 35.64, approaching oversold territory but not yet triggering a reversal signal. The 200-day SMA sits far below at approximately 1,959, meaning the longer-term trend remains technically bullish despite the significant correction from the January 27 all-time high of 2,562.
| Level | Points | Reference |
| R3 | 2,318.03 | Upper Bollinger / swing high |
| R2 | 2,261.04 | Mid-Bollinger zone |
| R1 | 2,234.53 | Lower-mid resistance cluster |
| Close | 2,175.41 | Mar 6 close |
| S1 | 2,116.13 | Lower Bollinger band |
| S2 | 2,100.00 | Psychological / technical support |
| 200-Day SMA | 1,959.09 | Long-term trend support |
06 Forward Look
Congressional Elections — March 8 Results:
Colombia’s congressional elections on Sunday produced a fragmented Congress. Pacto Histórico led the Senate with 22.8% of votes (4.37 million, gaining 5 seats), followed by Centro Democrático at 15.6% (nearly 3 million, gaining 4 seats), and Partido Liberal in third at 11.7%. In the presidential consultas, Paloma Valencia won the Gran Consulta por Colombia with 3.2 million votes, Claudia López won the centrist consulta, and Roy Barreras surprised by defeating Daniel Quintero in the Frente por la Vida. The results provide some political clarity but no single bloc controls the legislature, which may be modestly positive for market stability.
Oil Shock and the Ecopetrol Paradox:
With Brent above $100, the BVC faces a structural paradox. Ecopetrol — the index’s heavyweight — benefits enormously from sky-high crude prices, but the broader economy faces imported inflation risk, higher energy costs for non-oil sectors, and potential capital flight as global risk-off deepens. A prolonged conflict could push oil toward $120–$150 per Kpler estimates, which would amplify this dual dynamic. For the peso, higher oil export revenues are offset by capital flight and DXY strength.
US Macro Calendar — Week of March 10:
The week’s key releases include US CPI (Wednesday), housing data (Thursday), and Q4 GDP second estimate plus PCE deflator (Friday). If inflation data runs hot, expectations for Fed rate cuts — already pushed back to September/October from July — could be further delayed, adding pressure on the peso and emerging-market assets broadly.
Global Contagion:
Asia’s Monday carnage — Nikkei −7%, KOSPI −8% triggering a circuit breaker, S&P 500 futures −1.7% — signals that the BVC likely faces a volatile open on Monday. The VIX’s 24% Friday spike to 29.49 confirms elevated fear levels globally. The newly elected Congress’s composition will also be scrutinized for signals about reform continuity and fiscal policy under the next president.
Verdict
The COLCAP’s headline −0.32% loss masks the depth of stress across Colombian equities. The real story is the bifurcation: Ecopetrol’s oil-driven 9.17% surge to a 52-week high is mechanically propping up an index where the financial sector is in free fall — Mineros −18.6% weekly, Pf Davigrp −13.3%, Occidente −13.1%. The 2.1% weekly decline and sixth straight losing session confirm the post-January correction still has momentum, yet the index retains a 3.87% YTD gain and sits more than 200 points above its 200-day SMA at 1,959.
Technically, the MACD histogram at −46.43 and RSI approaching oversold (35.64) suggest the selloff is maturing, but with Asia plunging Monday and Brent threatening $120, there is no catalyst for a reversal yet. Watch the 2,100 support level carefully. If it holds, the oil-Ecopetrol tailwind could stabilize the index; if it breaks, the next meaningful support is the 200-SMA at 1,959. Congressional election clarity should provide modest relief, but the Iran-driven macro storm is far from over.
Bias: BEARISH — maintained. Oil-driven Ecopetrol support is insufficient to offset broad financial-sector damage and global contagion risk. A recovery above 2,234 (R1) with Brent stabilization turns bias Neutral. A break below 2,100 targets the 200-SMA at 1,959.
Disclaimer: This report is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. All data sourced from BVC, TradingView, Investing.com, Banco de la República, TradingEconomics, PluuralidadZ, Infobae, El Oriente, El Espectador, Noticias Caracol, and other public sources. Verify all figures independently before making investment decisions.