COLCAP Flat at 2,149 After Wild 3% Intraday Crash and Recovery

BVC / COLCAP Daily Report  ·  March 4, 2026  ·  Covering March 3 Session

01 Session Data

02 Key Movers

03 Market Commentary

Tuesday’s session was a tale of two markets: the index closed essentially flat, masking extraordinary volatility beneath the surface. The COLCAP opened at 2,137.70, fell as low as 2,042.99 — a 108-point intraday range — before staging a dramatic recovery to close at 2,149.33 near the session high of 2,151.11. The closing print showed a mere +1.22 point change, but the journey to get there was anything but calm. Trading volume collapsed 76.2% to just COP 197,789 million versus COP 830,828 million the prior session, signaling extreme investor caution.

Ecopetrol was the clear volume leader, accounting for COP 75,761 million in trades and gaining 1.79% as surging oil prices offset broader market fears. The stock continues its strong YTD performance at +19.79%. However, the revelation that Norway’s Government Pension Fund Global sold its entire Ecopetrol stake on February 26 — citing environmental and human rights concerns linked to persistent oil spills on indigenous U’wa and Awá territories — adds reputational pressure. Ecopetrol reports Q4 2025 earnings today (March 4), with analysts watching a 73% cumulative decline in profits under the Petro administration.

The financial sector bore the brunt of the selling. Grupo Aval was the day’s biggest loser, cratering 18.18% to COP 208.84 on negligible volume of just COP 675 million. Grupo Bolívar fell 8.46% with COP 78,520 million in trades, and Preferencial Davivienda declined 6.89% on COP 26,760 million. In the YTD ranking, Mineros leads with a 32.55% gain, followed by Ecopetrol at +19.79%. On the losing side, Pei leads declines, followed by Enka (−11.33%), BAC Holding International (−6.29%), and Grupo Energía Bogotá (−6.06%).

The Colombian peso held relatively steady as the TRM for March 4 was set at $3,768.73, up a modest COP 2.43 (+0.06%) from the March 3 TRM of $3,766.30. Pressure came from the DXY surging to approximately 99.13 on safe-haven dollar demand, and the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield jumping to 4.107%. Brent’s surge to $81.40 offered some support via Colombia’s oil-export linkage, but the geopolitical risk premium and stronger dollar overwhelmed the commodity tailwind. Year-to-date, the peso has weakened 0.31% against the dollar. BanRep’s hawkish 100 basis point rate hike to 10.25% on January 30 — triggered by the 23.7% minimum wage increase and sticky inflation above 5% — provides yield support but risks slowing domestic growth.

Globally, the rout was universal. The S&P 500 plunged as much as 2.5% and the Dow shed 1,200 points at its worst, but markets recovered sharply after Trump’s afternoon announcement of tanker escort guarantees. The S&P 500 closed down 0.94% at 6,816.63, the Dow lost 0.83% to 48,501.27, and the Nasdaq fell 1.02% to 22,516.69. The VIX surged 9.93% to 23.57. Gold reversed a four-day rally, dropping approximately 2% as the dollar strengthened, with DXY approaching the psychologically important 100 level. The CME FedWatch tool now shows virtually zero probability of a summer rate cut.

04 Technical Analysis

Tuesday’s candle formed a pronounced hammer pattern — opening at 2,137.70, plunging to an intraday low of 2,042.99, then recovering sharply to close at 2,149.33 near the session high of 2,151.11. This long lower wick signals strong buying interest near the 2,050 zone and suggests potential exhaustion of the recent selloff that has taken the COLCAP down more than 16% from its January 27 all-time high of 2,562.

The MACD remains deeply bearish, with the MACD line at 3.84 and the signal line at −30.29, producing a histogram of −34.13. However, the histogram has begun to narrow from prior sessions, suggesting the momentum of selling is decelerating even as the overall trend remains negative. The RSI sits at 48.38 with its signal at 31.70 — the main RSI line is in neutral territory while the signal line’s approach to oversold levels aligns with the hammer reversal pattern.

Price is now trading well below all major moving averages, with the nearest resistance cluster around 2,180–2,258 (Bollinger Bands and shorter-term EMAs). The Bollinger Bands have widened dramatically during February’s correction, reflecting extreme volatility, with the lower band around 2,100 — notably close to Tuesday’s intraday low. The 200-day SMA at approximately 1,951 remains far below as major long-term structural support.

05 Forward Look

Ecopetrol Q4 Earnings:

Ecopetrol reports Q4 2025 and full-year earnings today — analysts will scrutinize the cumulative decline in profits under the Petro administration and the outlook for 2026 dividends, which Credicorp Capital projects at a yield of just 5.1%, far below historical levels. Meanwhile, a Ministry of Mines investigation into Ecopetrol’s diesel supply failures to Nariño adds another layer of operational and political risk.

Iran and Hormuz Duration:

The conflict’s duration is the dominant variable. Barclays warned Brent could reach $100 if the disruption persists, while UBS raised the possibility of prices above $120 in a material supply disruption scenario. For Colombia, the oil surge is a double-edged sword — it boosts Ecopetrol revenues and fiscal receipts but also fuels imported inflation at a time when BanRep is already fighting against price pressures.

Election Calendar:

Colombia’s 2026 presidential campaign is in full swing, with the March 8 consultas interpartidistas days away. The results will determine the final presidential candidate lineup for the May 31 first-round vote. Markets will be particularly sensitive to any signal that the center-right field remains fragmented while the left consolidates behind Cepeda.

Verdict

Tuesday’s session was a textbook liquidity vacuum event. The COLCAP’s dramatic intraday swing — from −3% to flat — demonstrates that the selling wave has created price levels where buyers are willing to step in, even amid geopolitical chaos. The hammer candlestick is technically constructive, though the collapsed volume (COP 197,789 million versus COP 830,828 million the prior session) signals the recovery was driven more by a lack of sellers than by conviction buying.

The financial sector’s devastation — Grupo Aval down 18%, Grupo Bolívar down 8.5% — reveals deep structural concerns about Colombia’s political trajectory. The Hormuz crisis creates an unusual dynamic: oil revenues benefit from higher crude prices, but the broader economic impact of a sustained oil shock — higher inflation, tighter global financial conditions, stronger dollar — overwhelms the positive.

With Ecopetrol earnings due today, BanRep’s hawkish stance locked in, and the election cycle intensifying, the COLCAP faces crosscurrents that make directional conviction difficult. The technical picture offers hope for a near-term bounce from an oversold condition, but the fundamental headwinds argue for continued caution. The 2,050 intraday low is the line in the sand; a close below there opens the path toward the 200-day SMA at 1,951.

Bias: NEUTRAL — hammer reversal offers hope, but collapsed volume and financial sector carnage demand confirmation. Hold above 2,050 needed to stabilize; below that, 1,951 is the next battleground.

This report is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. Past performance is not indicative of future results. All data sourced from BVC, TradingView, Trading Economics, Infobae, Investing.com, Banco de la República, DolarHoy.co, Bloomberg Línea, CNBC, Yahoo Finance. Chart: TradingView (riotimesonline). Report by The Rio Times. Verify all figures independently before making investment decisions.