COLCAP Colombia Today Flat at 2,184 as Reficar Restart and Fed Decision Loom

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Market Snapshot

COLCAP Colombia Today: Equities

The Colombia stock market COLCAP today closed Monday’s session virtually unchanged at 2,184.49, slipping just 1.03 points (−0.05%) after a promising early rally faded through the afternoon. The intraday range of 40.33 points (2,170.21–2,210.54) reflected a market caught between competing forces: Brent crude surging above $103 lifted oil-sensitive names, but the broader financial sector remained under selling pressure. This is part of The Rio Times’ daily coverage of the Colombian stock market and Latin American financial markets.

The session’s early strength was driven by Ecopetrol, which continued to attract heavy volume as Brent’s 3% rally reinforced the oil-sector rotation that has defined the past week. However, the index failed to hold above the 2,200 level, producing a shooting-star-like candle pattern that mirrors Friday’s intraday reversal. For context on the recent correction, see our coverage of COLCAP’s 4.5% plunge as oil hit $100. The COLCAP now sits 14.74% below its January 27 all-time high of 2,562.00 but retains a positive 5.68% year-to-date return.

Currency

The Colombian peso exchange rate today held near its strongest levels in over a month. The official TRM for March 17 was set at COP 3,691.90, up COP 6.37 (+0.17%) from the prior session but still down 1.73% year-to-date—reflecting the peso’s continued post-election appreciation trend. The SPOT market closed at COP 3,690.02 on Monday, essentially flat on the day.

The peso’s resilience is notable given Brent’s sharp rally: the traditional positive correlation between oil prices and the Colombian peso appears to be working, as higher crude prices improve Colombia’s terms of trade and fiscal revenue outlook. The DXY fell 0.15% to 99.56, providing additional tailwind. BanRep’s 10.25% policy rate—one of the highest real rates among emerging markets—continues to attract carry-trade flows, supporting the peso even as global risk appetite remains fragile. The next BanRep decision is scheduled for March 31, with markets expecting a hold as the Board assesses the oil-driven inflation pass-through.

Technical Analysis

The COLCAP closed at 2,184.49 with a candle that showed a long upper wick, opening at 2,187.21, rallying to 2,210.54, then fading to close below the open near the session low. This shooting-star pattern is typically bearish, particularly after the prior session’s similar intraday reversal from 2,229.66. Sellers continue to defend the 2,200–2,220 resistance zone aggressively.

The MACD histogram reads −5.52 with the MACD line at −35.53 and signal at −41.05. Both lines remain deeply negative, though the histogram has been narrowing over recent sessions—a potential early sign that bearish momentum is exhausting itself, even if a bullish crossover remains distant. The RSI sits at 40.44 on the 14-day and 39.02 on the signal, both hovering just above oversold territory and consistent with the grinding, directionless price action of the past week.

Price remains well above the 200-day SMA near 1,978, confirming the broader structural uptrend is intact despite the 14.74% drawdown from the January 27 all-time high. The Ichimoku cloud on the daily chart shows the index trading below both the Tenkan-sen and Kijun-sen, with the cloud acting as overhead resistance near the 2,220–2,260 zone. A sustained break above 2,220 would be the first signal that the correction is stabilizing; failure to hold 2,170 would expose the 2,100 support level.

Key Levels

Global Context

Wall Street staged a relief rally on Monday, with the S&P 500 gaining 1.01% to 6,699.38 and the Nasdaq advancing 1.22%, driven by dip-buying in tech and easing oil fears after reports that Iranian, Indian, and Chinese vessels had successfully transited the Strait of Hormuz. The VIX fell 13.53% to 23.51, suggesting the market’s most acute panic phase may be subsiding—though the index remains well above pre-crisis levels.

Brent crude rose 2.99% to $103.21 on Monday, partially reversing Friday’s retreat, as the Hormuz situation remained unresolved despite diplomatic signals. The IEA’s March report described the current crisis as the largest supply disruption in history, with Middle East producers cutting at least 10 million barrels per day. The EIA projects Brent above $95 for the next two months before declining to $80 by Q3. For Colombia, the elevated oil price is a double-edged sword: it boosts Ecopetrol’s earnings and fiscal revenues but feeds through to domestic inflation via higher fuel costs and import prices.

Looking Ahead

FOMC Decision → March 18–19: The Fed is widely expected to hold rates at 3.50–3.75%. The updated dot plot and Powell’s press conference will determine whether the two-cut baseline for 2026 holds or shifts hawkish. A stronger-than-expected hawkish signal would pressure emerging-market currencies including the peso.

Reficar Restart → Ongoing: Ecopetrol confirmed the sequential restart of all 35 processing units is underway and advancing satisfactorily. The main unit is stabilizing to receive crude. While the company insists inventories are sufficient, any delay in full normalization would increase Colombia’s import dependence for refined products at a time when global refinery margins are elevated due to the Hormuz disruption.

BanRep Next Decision → March 31: The Board is expected to hold at 10.25% as it assesses the oil-driven inflation pass-through. February CPI data and the trajectory of Brent crude will be critical inputs. The 100 bps hike in January has already tightened financial conditions, and the market sees no appetite for further increases absent a significant inflation surprise.

Presidential Race → May 31 First Round: Paloma Valencia (Centro Democrático), Claudia López (center), and Iván Cepeda (Pacto Histórico) remain the principal candidates. The next polling release will be closely watched for shifts in electoral odds that could affect the equity risk premium on Colombian assets.

Verdict

Monday’s session confirmed the COLCAP’s post-correction stasis. The index has traded in a remarkably tight range over the past four sessions, oscillating between 2,170 and 2,230 as the market awaits a decisive catalyst. The repeated failure to hold above 2,200—despite Brent trading above $103 and Wall Street posting gains—suggests that the oil-for-equities trade has run its course in the near term, with Ecopetrol gains being offset by persistent financial-sector weakness.

The Reficar restart is an idiosyncratic risk factor worth monitoring: while Ecopetrol has assured the market that fuel supply is unaffected, the 35-unit restart process is complex and any complications would increase import costs at a time when the Hormuz crisis has already elevated refinery margins globally. The Fed decision on Wednesday evening is the dominant macro catalyst. A hawkish dot plot could push the DXY higher and test the peso’s resilience, while a dovish surprise would provide tailwind to emerging-market assets.

Technically, the RSI near 40 and the deeply negative but converging MACD suggest the index is building a base rather than preparing for a second leg down. However, the repeated rejection at 2,200–2,220 keeps the path of least resistance uncertain until a decisive break occurs.

Bias: Neutral — range-bound. A daily close above 2,238 (Tenkan-sen) with improving breadth upgrades to Cautiously Bullish. A break below 2,100 reinstates the Bearish case and targets the 200-day SMA near 1,978.

This report is provided for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. The Rio Times is not responsible for any investment decisions made based on this content. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Consult a licensed financial advisor before making investment decisions. Data sourced from BVC, TradingView, Investing.com, Banco de la República, and other public sources.