BCS / S&P IPSA Daily Report • March 10, 2026 • Covering March 9 Session
The Big Three
The S&P IPSA staged a dramatic intraday reversal, plunging 2.1% to 10,097.58 before rallying to close at 10,428.64 (+1.11%). The index opened at 10,314 with immediate selling pressure as oil surged past $119/bbl and global markets collapsed. But Trump’s declaration that the Iran war was “almost complete” triggered a sharp afternoon recovery that erased all losses and then some. The prior week had been devastating: the IPSA shed over 5%, with intraday crashes below 10,000 wiping out all 2026 gains. The index remains 11.0% below its January 28 ATH of 11,721.38.
The peso weakened modestly to CLP 914.68 per dollar (+0.34%), after opening sharply lower at 920.11. The intraday recovery mirrored equities: the CLP opened near its worst level of 2026 before pulling back as oil prices retreated from triple digits. Weekly volatility far exceeded the annual average, with USD/CLP up 3.7% over the past seven days. Copper, Chile’s critical export, fell toward the lower end of its 2026 trading range, adding further pressure to the peso and undermining what would normally be its strongest fundamental support.
Chile’s vulnerability as a net energy importer was on full display as oil’s surge crushed rate-cut expectations. Diario Financiero reported that the crisis “swept away expectations of upcoming interest rate cuts in Chile.” The BCCh’s TPM at 4.75% was already seen as potentially too high for the weakening domestic economy, but with Brent peaking at $119/bbl before settling near $86, the inflationary pass-through from fuel and transport costs makes further easing nearly impossible in the near term. LATAM Airlines, the IPSA’s most-traded stock, was crushed by surging jet fuel costs.
01 Market Snapshot
| Metric | Value | Change |
| S&P IPSA Close | 10,428.64 | +1.11% |
| IPSA ATH (Jan 28) | 11,721.38 | −11.0% from ATH |
| IPSA Prior Week | — | −5%+ w/w |
| USD/CLP (close) | 914.68 | +0.34% |
| USD/CLP Weekly | — | +3.7% (CLP weakens) |
| BCCh TPM | 4.75% | On hold |
| Brent Crude (Mon settle) | ~$86/bbl | −7.3% (off $119 high) |
| WTI Crude (Mon settle) | ~$86/bbl | Per Redimin/DF |
| VIX | ~35 | Elevated |
| DXY | ~98.9 | −0.12% |
02 Key Movers
| Stock | Change | Note |
| LATAM Airlines | −7.37% (prior wk) | Jet fuel shock; most-traded IPSA name |
| Banco Santander Chile | −5.06% (prior wk) | Banking selloff; rate uncertainty |
| Banco de Chile | −3.96% (prior wk) | Financials under pressure |
| Parque Arauco | −8%+ (prior wk) | Real estate hit hard in selloff |
| SQM-B | Mixed | Lithium giant; Cascadas entities buying shares |
03 Market Commentary
Monday’s session on the Bolsa de Santiago encapsulated the entire Iran crisis in a single trading day. The S&P IPSA opened at 10,314.03, immediately sold off to an intraday low of 10,097.58 (−2.1%) as Brent surged past $119/bbl and Asia cratered (Nikkei −5.2%, KOSPI −6%, Hang Seng −1.4%). But the afternoon brought a dramatic reversal after Trump declared the Iran war “almost complete,” sending oil prices into freefall and equities sharply higher. The IPSA rallied from the 10,098 low to close at 10,428.64 (+1.11%), a 330-point intraday swing.
Diario Financiero reported the IPSA opened down 0.8% at 10,236.57 and noted that the prior week’s 5%+ decline had “swept away expectations of upcoming rate cuts in Chile.” The damage was concentrated in the most liquid names: LATAM Airlines was hammered by surging jet fuel costs, while Banco Santander Chile (−5.06%) and Banco de Chile (−3.96%) suffered as the rate-cut outlook evaporated. BioBioChile reported the IPSA crashed as much as 5.68% intraday during the prior week, briefly falling below 10,000 to 9,931.28 — erasing all 2026 gains.
Chile’s position as a net energy importer makes it uniquely vulnerable among our four Latin American markets. Unlike Colombia and Argentina, which benefit from higher oil prices through Ecopetrol and Vaca Muerta respectively, Chile absorbs the full cost of higher crude through fuel and transport inflation. This asymmetry was visible in Monday’s relative performance: the IPSA’s +1.11% gain was the weakest among Latin American peers that rallied (Colombia’s COLCAP +2.31%), reflecting the oil headwind that is absent from oil-producing markets.
04 Currency
The peso opened weak at 920.11 per dollar (+0.88%) before recovering to close at 914.68 (+0.34%). Redimin reported the close represented a new 2026 high for the dollar in Chile, surpassing the previous high of 914.20 set last Thursday. The weekly depreciation of 3.7% reflects sustained flight-to-safety flows into the dollar as the Iran conflict escalated.
Crucially, copper — Chile’s fundamental currency anchor — is working against the peso. XTB noted the metal is approaching “the lower end of its 2026 trading range,” reflecting risk aversion and demand fears from a potential global slowdown driven by the oil shock. Redimin also flagged that the NDF (non-deliverable forward) market showed a massive swing, with the net position moving from −$9.665 billion to −$14.733 billion in under a week — a $5 billion shift that explains the peso’s persistent weakness. The annual picture remains supportive (CLP up 5.91% vs USD y/y), but the near-term pressure is intensifying.
05 Technical Analysis
Daily (1D):
Monday’s candle (O: 10,314.03, H: 10,458.66, L: 10,097.58, C: 10,428.64) was a strong bullish engulfing pattern with an extended lower wick to 10,098 and a close near the session high of 10,459. The body (+1.11%) is convincingly positive and the close above the open by 114 points signals genuine buying conviction. The long lower wick shows that sellers were overwhelmed in the second half of the session.
The MACD is bearish: MACD line at −66.11, signal at −120.40, and histogram at −186.51. All three components are below zero. However, the MACD line at −66.11 is less negative than the signal at −120.40, meaning a bullish crossover (MACD above signal) is approaching. If the rally continues for 1–2 more sessions, the crossover could trigger, which would be the first bullish MACD signal since the correction began in late January.
The RSI reads 40.87 (fast) and 38.92 (slow), both recovering from near-oversold territory. The 200-day SMA sits at approximately 9,454, some 9.3% below the current close, confirming the long-term bullish trend remains structurally intact. Immediate resistance is at 10,540–10,599 (declining MAs), with the more significant level at 10,676–10,787 (mid-Bollinger zone). Support at 10,221 and the psychological 10,000 level were both tested last week.
| Level | Points | Reference |
| R3 | 10,812.31 | Upper Bollinger |
| R2 | 10,676.38 | Mid-Bollinger / prior support |
| R1 | 10,540.46 | Declining MA cluster |
| Close | 10,428.64 | Mar 9 close |
| S1 | 10,221.31 | Lower Bollinger band |
| S2 | 9,600 | Psychological / horizontal support |
| 200-Day SMA | 9,454.09 | Long-term trend support |
06 Forward Look
Oil — Chile’s Achilles Heel:
Chile is the most oil-vulnerable market in our Latin American coverage. As a net energy importer, every dollar increase in oil translates directly into higher costs for fuel, transport, and eventually food. The BCCh’s ability to cut rates — the single most important catalyst for IPSA upside — is now hostage to oil prices. If Brent sustains above $85, expect the TPM to remain at 4.75% well into H2 2026. If oil returns below $75 on a ceasefire, rate cuts could resume and the IPSA would likely rally sharply toward 10,800–11,000.
Copper — The Missing Tailwind:
Copper at the lower end of its 2026 range is a double headwind: it weakens the peso (negative for imported inflation) and removes the fiscal/trade surplus support that normally buffers Chile during global shocks. If the Iran conflict deepens and triggers a global recession, copper demand could fall further, creating a vicious cycle of CLP weakness, higher imported inflation, and a BCCh unable to cut rates. Conversely, a ceasefire with sustained China demand could push copper back above $4.50/lb and provide meaningful relief.
Trump Ceasefire Signal:
Monday’s reversal was entirely driven by Trump’s claim the war is “almost complete.” For Chile specifically, a ceasefire would be the most bullish possible catalyst: oil would collapse from $86+ toward $65–70, rate-cut expectations would revive immediately, the peso would strengthen, and the IPSA could recapture the 10,800–11,200 range. However, if the Strait of Hormuz remains disrupted and oil pushes back above $100, the IPSA faces a retest of the 10,000 psychological level and potentially the 9,600 support zone.
Verdict
The IPSA’s +1.11% close after a −2.1% intraday plunge shows that buyers are willing to step in at the 10,100 level, but the recovery was entirely event-driven (Trump’s ceasefire comments) rather than fundamentally based. Chile’s net-energy-importer status makes it the most vulnerable of our four markets to sustained oil prices above $85. The prior week’s 5%+ crash, LATAM Airlines’ collapse, and the evaporation of rate-cut expectations paint a structurally challenging picture.
Technically, Monday’s bullish engulfing candle is constructive and the MACD is approaching a bullish crossover (MACD −66.11 vs signal −120.40). The RSI at 40.87 is recovering from near-oversold. The 200-day SMA at 9,454 (9.3% below) keeps the long-term trend bullish. But the index is 11.0% below its January ATH and faces heavy resistance at 10,540–10,600 (R1).
Bias: BEARISH — Chile’s energy-import vulnerability, the death of near-term rate-cut expectations, copper weakness, and the 5%+ weekly drawdown outweigh Monday’s bounce. A confirmed Iran ceasefire with Brent below $75 and a BCCh rate-cut signal shifts bias to Cautiously Bullish. A sustained close above 10,540 (R1) shifts bias to Neutral. A break below 10,000 targets the 9,600 zone.
Disclaimer: This report is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. All data sourced from BCS, TradingView, Diario Financiero, Diario Estrategia, Redimin, BioBioChile, Infobae, Investing.com, Banco Central de Chile, Cochilco, and other public sources. Verify all figures independently before making investment decisions.