TODAY’S FOCUS
The Big Picture
Nvidia crushed Q4 earnings after the bell — $68.1 billion in revenue (+73% YoY), $1.62 EPS vs $1.53 expected, and a monster $78 billion Q1 guide that excludes all China data center revenue. The stock rose ~2% after hours before stabilizing near flat. Meanwhile, the Ibovespa touched an intraday all-time high of 192,623 before closing fractionally lower at 191,247 (−0.13%), as retail-sector weakness (GPA loss >R$500M, Assai −4.39%) offset Vale’s fifth consecutive session of gains. Trump’s State of the Union — a record 1h48m — offered no new tariff escalation beyond the existing 15% Section 122 framework. Federal tax revenue hit a historic R$325.7 billion in January. Today’s macro focus: U.S. Durable Goods Orders (8:30 ET), the Nvidia earnings aftermath across global tech, and Iran-U.S. nuclear talks opening in Geneva.
Three Things That Matter
| After Hours | Nvidia Q4: $68.1B revenue (+73% YoY), $1.62 EPS beat, Q1 guide $78B ±2%. Data center revenue $62.3B (+75%). Supply commitments nearly doubled to $95.2B. Stock +2% AH. GTC conference in March next catalyst |
| 08:30 ET | U.S. Durable Goods Orders (Jan P) — Key manufacturing read. Soft print would reinforce growth concerns and rate-cut expectations. Initial Jobless Claims also at 8:30 |
| All Day | Iran-U.S. nuclear talks open in Geneva. Trump said at SOTU: “I will never allow the world’s No. 1 sponsor of terror to have a nuclear weapon.” Breakdown risk = oil spike, risk-off. Two carrier strike groups deployed in the region |
Where We Left Off WEDNESDAY, FEB 25 — B3 CLOSE
The Ibovespa touched a new intraday all-time high of 192,623 in the morning — piercing the 192,000 barrier for the first time — before profit-taking dragged it to a close at 191,247 (−0.13%). The fade was led by the retail sector: Grupo Pão de Açúcar fell 2.24% after reporting a loss exceeding R$500 million, and Assai dropped 4.39%. Vale rose for the fifth consecutive session, limiting the index drawdown, while Petrobras was flat after hitting its ex-dividend ATH the day before. Volume was R$28.1 billion — below Tuesday’s R$33 billion. Tuesday had been the 13th record close of 2026, with the Ibovespa finishing at 191,490 (+1.40%).
In New York, the mood was risk-on ahead of Nvidia. The S&P 500 gained 0.81% to 6,946, the Nasdaq surged 1.26% to 23,152, and the Dow added 308 points to 49,482. Oracle jumped 1.2% on a bullish upgrade, Palantir gained 4.2%, and Microsoft rose 3%. AMD lost 1.4% after Tuesday’s 9% Meta-fueled surge. After the bell, Trump’s State of the Union offered no new tariff measures — relief for markets. Treasury yields edged up to 4.05% on the 10-year after a weak $70 billion 5-year auction saw the lowest bid-to-cover ratio since July. The DXY slipped to 97.80 as the yuan rallied to a 2.75-year high against the dollar.
Market Snapshot DATA AS OF WED, FEB 25 CLOSE
| Indicator | Close | Change |
|---|---|---|
| Ibovespa | 191,247 | −0.13% |
| USD/BRL | 5.124 | −0.60% |
| S&P 500 | 6,946 | +0.81% |
| Nasdaq | 23,152 | +1.26% |
| 10Y Treasury | 4.05% | +2 bps |
| Gold (Spot) | $5,150 | −0.43% |
| Brent Crude | $69.30 | +0.24% |
| Iron Ore (62%) | $100.84 | +0.21% |
| DXY | 97.80 | −0.07% |
What to Watch THURSDAY CATALYSTS
The market enters Thursday with two heavyweight catalysts to digest. First, Nvidia’s Q4 blowout: $68.1 billion in revenue crushed the $66.2 billion consensus, data center revenue surged 75% YoY to $62.3 billion, and the Q1 guide of $78 billion ±2% blew past the Street’s $72 billion estimate. Notably, the guide excludes all China data center compute revenue entirely — a conservative assumption that builds in a tariff buffer. Supply commitments nearly doubled from $50.3 billion to $95.2 billion in one quarter, signaling Nvidia is locking in capacity well into 2027. Jensen Huang declared the “agentic AI inflection point has arrived.” The stock rose 2% after hours before settling near flat — a “buy the rumor, sell the news” risk for Thursday’s open.
Second, Trump’s State of the Union clocked in at a record 1 hour 48 minutes. The market-relevant takeaways: (1) No new tariff escalation — he doubled down on the existing 15% Section 122 framework but offered no surprises. (2) Proposed government-matched retirement accounts (“Trump Accounts”) with up to $1,000/year match for workers without employer plans. (3) Hardline rhetoric on Iran — refused to rule out military action, with Geneva talks beginning today. (4) Called for a ban on institutional investors buying single-family homes. (5) Touted the stock market at “all-time highs” and claimed inflation was “plummeting.” The dollar weakened overnight on continued yuan strength, which hit a 2.75-year high vs. the greenback.
Ibovespa Setup TECHNICAL LEVELS
The index enters Thursday at 191,247 after Wednesday’s failed breakout above 192,000. The new intraday ATH at 192,623 represents the near-term ceiling, while the fade from that level shows sellers are active at altitude. Vale’s five-session winning streak was the primary support, but Petrobras stalled and the banking sector offered limited contribution. The retail sector is emerging as a pocket of weakness — GPA’s R$500M+ loss and Assai’s 4.39% drop signal that domestic consumer-facing names are not participating in the rally driven by foreign flows and blue chips.
Resistance: 192,623 (new intraday ATH, Feb 25) → 193,500 (upper Bollinger Band projection). Support: 190,419 (Wed session low) → 188,956 (20-day EMA zone) → 185,900 (50-day SMA). RSI: 69.5 on the daily — just below the 70 overbought threshold, cooling from Tuesday’s 72. Prior reversals triggered at 73-75. Volume at R$28.1B is below the 5-day average of R$31B, suggesting conviction is thinning. Foreign inflows through Feb 20 reached R$35.6B YTD — JPMorgan called it unprecedented for this time of year.
Copom Watch NEXT MEETING: MAR 17-18
The Selic sits at 15.00%. January’s record tax revenue of R$325.7 billion (+3.56% real YoY) signals a still-hot economy — IOF surged 49%, sports betting tax revenue jumped from R$55 million to R$1.5 billion YoY, and previdenciária rose 5.48%. This is a double-edged sword for the BCB: strong revenues validate the fiscal framework (target of R$34.3B surplus), but they also confirm Galípolo’s concern that demand remains too strong. The real at 5.124 is the lowest since May 2024, providing imported disinflation relief — but Focus survey expectations at 3.99% IPCA are still essentially at the 4% ceiling. Market pricing: another 100 bps hike to 16.00% in March. The terminal rate debate sits at 16.50%–17.00%. Friday’s U.S. PPI is the last inflation input before the Fed’s March meeting, which falls on the same dates as Copom (March 17-18).
Economic Calendar THURSDAY, FEB 26
| Time (ET) | Event | Impact |
|---|---|---|
| 08:30 | U.S. Durable Goods Orders (Jan P) — Key manufacturing demand read | HIGH |
| 08:30 | U.S. Initial Jobless Claims — Weekly labor market pulse | MEDIUM |
| 10:00 | U.S. Pending Home Sales (Jan) | MEDIUM |
| All Day | Iran-U.S. Nuclear Talks — Geneva. Breakdown = oil spike, risk-off | HIGH |
| FRI 08:30 | U.S. PPI (Jan) — Last inflation input before March FOMC | HIGH |
| FRI 09:45 | U.S. Chicago PMI (Feb) | MEDIUM |
| MAR 17–18 | Copom + FOMC Meetings — Both central banks decide same dates | HIGH |
Latin America Markets LATEST CLOSE
| Index | Close | Change | RSI (14) | Signal |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ibovespa | 191,247 | −0.13% | 69.5 | Bullish |
| IPC | 71,144 | +0.30% | 60.0 | Bullish |
| COLCAP | 2,382 | −0.56% | 51.6 | Neutral |
| IPSA | 11,133 | +1.29% | 45.8 | Neutral |
| MERVAL | 2,799,876 | −0.45% | 40.5 | Bearish |
Chile’s IPSA was the regional standout, gaining 1.29% with RSI still in neutral territory at 45.8 — room to run. Mexico’s IPC edged up 0.30% to 71,144, maintaining its bullish posture at RSI 60. COLCAP slipped 0.56% to 2,382 as the index consolidates near its 2024–2025 highs, with RSI in neutral at 51.6. MERVAL continued its cooling trend (−0.45%), with RSI at 40.5 in bearish territory, digesting the parabolic November rally. The real was the FX star of the session, strengthening to 5.124 — lowest closing level since May 21, 2024 — on persistent foreign equity inflows and a weakening dollar globally.
Commodities & FX KEY MOVES
Gold slipped to $5,150 (−0.43%), pulling back from Monday’s three-week high of $5,248 as profit-taking set in despite ongoing tariff uncertainty and the upcoming Iran-Geneva talks. The gold/silver ratio tightened to ~58.9 as silver held near $87.80, reflecting relative outperformance from industrial demand drivers. Brent firmed to $69.30 as geopolitical risk premium holds — the U.S. advisory for ships to avoid Iranian waters remains in effect, and two carrier strike groups are deployed in the region. Iron ore stabilized at $100.84 (+0.21%) as Chinese post-Lunar New Year restocking provides a floor, though elevated port inventories (highest since 2022 vs pig iron production) cap the upside. DXY slipped to 97.80 amid yuan strength (2.75-year high vs dollar) and persistent concern about capital rotation away from U.S. assets — down 8% over the past 12 months. Bitcoin traded at $68,156 (+0.24%) with RSI at a depressed 36.3, showing limited correlation to equity momentum.
Risk Map BULL vs BEAR
| Bull Case | Bear Case |
|---|---|
| Nvidia Q1 $78B guide validates AI capex — Data center revenue +75% YoY. Hyperscaler combined capex approaching $650B for 2026. Supply commitments doubled to $95.2B. This lifts the entire global tech complex.
Record Brazilian fiscal strength — R$325.7B January tax revenue (+3.56% real). Sports betting taxes alone jumped from R$55M to R$1.5B. Reinforces the fiscal framework and the 0.25% GDP surplus target. USD/BRL at May 2024 lows — Real at 5.124, DXY down 8% in 12 months. Imported disinflation supports the rate path. R$35.6B YTD foreign inflows show structural EM rotation into Brazil. SOTU tariff relief — No new escalation. Market feared 15-20% on EU (FT report) but Trump held to existing framework. |
Ibovespa RSI at 69.5 — cooling but elevated — Failed to hold 192k intraday. Volume declining (R$28.1B vs R$33B). Prior reversals triggered at 73-75. Retail sector showing cracks (GPA −2.24%, Assai −4.39%).
Iran Geneva talks high-stakes — Two carrier strike groups deployed. Trump: “I will never allow them to have a nuclear weapon.” Breakdown = oil spike toward $80+, risk-off cascade. 5Y Treasury auction weakness — Lowest bid-to-cover since July. Bond market showing signs of indigestion at current supply levels. If long-end yields rise, it pressures rate-sensitive EM carry trades. Nvidia “buy the rumor” risk — Stock settled near flat AH after initial +2% pop. If Thursday’s regular session sells the news, global tech could give back Wednesday’s gains. |
Positioning BOTTOM LINE
The setup is constructive but demands discipline. Nvidia’s $78 billion Q1 guide is unambiguously bullish for global risk assets and should provide a positive impulse at the open, particularly for B3 names leveraged to the tech cycle. Trump’s SOTU offered tariff relief by staying within the 15% Section 122 framework — no EU escalation, no new measures. The Ibovespa’s structural supports remain intact: R$35.6B YTD foreign inflows, BRL at 5.124 (strongest in nearly two years), and record fiscal revenue that bolsters the government’s credibility. But the index touched 192,623 and couldn’t hold it. RSI at 69.5 is cooling but still elevated, volume is declining, and the retail sector is showing real weakness beneath the blue-chip veneer. The 190,419 level (Wednesday’s low) is the first line of defense — a break below opens the door to the 20-day EMA at 188,900. Iran-Geneva talks are the wild card: a breakthrough calms oil and supports risk; a collapse sends Brent toward $80 and triggers a rotation into gold and bonds. Durable Goods Orders at 8:30 ET set the macro tone. Bias: cautiously bullish with tight stops at 190,000.