Brazil’s Financial Morning Call for January 26, 2026

This is part of The Rio Times’ daily Brazil Financial Morning Call, covering Latin American financial markets.

Today’s Key Themes

\n

\n \t
• Brex sale → Brazilian-founded Brex sells to Capital One for $5.15B; stock falls 6% amid fintech consolidation and U.S. market reactions.

\n \t

• Capital markets record → Brazil’s capital markets hit 2025 record with R$838.8B ($155B) in offerings, up 6.4% YoY, driven by fixed income (R$737.7B, +3.4%) like debentures (R$492.8B) and securitization (R$241.8B); equity shrank to R$15.5B (-38%), extending IPO drought to four years since Wilson Sons (later delisted post-MSC acquisition); real-estate funds surged (FIIs R$79.2B, +77.2%).

\n \t

• Ibovespa surge → +1.86% to 178,858.54 on R$35.9B turnover; intraday record 180,532.28, low 175,589.66; commodity gains (oil +~2.8%, iron ore) lifted Petrobras (+4.35%), Vale (+2.46%), amid foreign flows and U.S. pressure on Iran.

\n \t

• Real strengthening → USD/BRL ~R$5.2895 (range R$5.2765–R$5.2977); extended rally pressing 5.28–5.27 support on persistent real demand and oversold momentum (RSI ~28.8); broader downswing with negative MACD.

\n \t

• Crypto stall → Bitcoin ~$87,750 (daily $86,422–$87,970, -1.1%); stalled below $88,000 resistance on fading ETF demand, negative spot flows, Washington crypto bill delays; ETH ~$2,893 (-1.6%), SOL ~$122 (-3.2%), XRP ~$1.88 (-0.9%).

\n \t

• Gold/silver advance → Gold $5,089.78/oz (high $5,112, +2.2%) broke $5,000 on safe-haven demand amid U.S. policy instability, dollar weakness; silver $107.903/oz (high $109.4, +4.8%) parabolic momentum/leverage surge.

\n

\nBroader risk: Commodity momentum and real/equity rebounds ease EM pressure, but stretched gains, oversold conditions, and fintech/U.S. policy uncertainties could spur volatility; capital markets strength and metals provide buffer.
\n
\n

Economic Agenda for January 26, 2026

\n

Brazil

\n

\n \t
• 6:25 AM BRT – BCB Focus Market Readout Cons: – Prev: –

\n \t

• 6:30 AM BRT – Current Account (USD) (Dec) Cons: – Prev: -4.94B

\n \t

• 6:30 AM BRT – Foreign direct investment (USD) (Dec) Cons: – Prev: 9.82B

\n

\n

Mexico

\n

\n \t
• 7:00 AM CST – Unemployment Rate (Dec) Cons: – Prev: 2.70%

\n \t

• 7:00 AM CST – Unemployment Rate n.s.a. (Dec) Cons: – Prev: 2.70%

\n

\n

United States

\n

\n \t
• 8:30 AM EST – Core Durable Goods Orders (MoM) (Nov) Cons: 0.3% Prev: 0.2%

\n \t

• 8:30 AM EST – Durable Goods Orders (MoM) (Nov) Cons: 3.1% Prev: -2.2%

\n \t

• 10:30 AM EST – Dallas Fed Mfg Business Index (Jan) Cons: – Prev: -10.9

\n

\n

EU

\n

\n \t
• 3:00 AM CET – Spanish PPI (YoY) (Dec) Act: -3.0% Cons: – Prev: -2.5%

\n \t

• 4:00 AM CET – German Ifo Business Climate Index (Jan) Act: 87.6 Cons: 88.3 Prev: 87.6

\n \t

• 6:00 AM CET – German Buba President Nagel Speaks

\n

\n

UK

\n

\n \t
• 7:01 PM GMT – BRC Shop Price Index (YoY) Cons: 0.7% Prev: 0.7%

\n

\nImplication: Brazil’s BCB Focus informs rate/inflation views amid real strength; Current Account/FDI gauge external health for FX resilience. Mexico’s unemployment data test labor/growth for Banxico.
\n
\nU.S. durables/Dallas Fed probe manufacturing/resilience, potentially lifting yields/pressing EMFX. EU Spanish PPI/Ifo/Nagel add inflation/sentiment/policy nuance; UK BRC tracks consumer prices post-holidays. U.S./EU data dominate global tone amid commodity bids and dollar softness.
\n

Brazil’s Markets on Friday

\nIbovespa +1.86% to 178,858.54 on R$35.9 billion turnover (heavy). Opened at 175,589.66 (session low), hit intraday record 180,532.28. Commodity surge (oil +~2.8%, iron ore) and foreign flows fueled rally; Petrobras (+4.35%), Vale (+2.46%) led.
\n
\nRead more 
\n

Commodity Markets

\n

Palladium

\nPrice: $2,081/oz, up 2.69%.
\nWhat’s happening: Catching up after lagging, with speculators leaning into risk-off impulse.
\n

Platinum

\nPrice: $2,864.40/oz, up 4.49%.
\nWhat’s happening: In breakout phase, pulled higher by broader rush into hard assets.
\n

Gold

\nPrice: $5,089.78/oz, up 2.2%.
\nWhat’s happening: Safe-haven demand surged as investors questioned U.S. policy stability and dollar weakened.
\n
\nRead more 
\n

Silver

\nPrice: $107.903/oz, up 4.8%.
\nWhat’s happening: Acting like momentum trade on top of haven bid, so swings getting violent.
\n
\nRead more 
\n

Copper

\nPrice: $13,115/ton, up 2.82% (LME 3-month, day-delayed close).
\nWhat’s happening: Staying near record territory as tight inventories keep market jumpy about supply.
\n

Aluminum

\nPrice: $3,169/ton, down 0.14% (LME 3-month).
\nWhat’s happening: Cooling slightly after strong run, but market still looks tight.
\n

Iron ore (62% Fe CFR futures)

\nPrice: about $106.36/ton, essentially flat on the screen.
\nWhat’s happening: Trading looks thin at this level, with prices waiting on clearer China steel-demand signals.
\n

Currency

\nBrazilian Real → USD/BRL near R$5.2895 after sharp retreat; persistent real demand, oversold momentum (RSI ~28.8), negative MACD support downswing into 5.28–5.27 zone.
\n
\nRead more
\n

Companies and Market

\nBrazilian-Founded Brex Sells to Capital One for $5.15 Billion, Stock Falls 6%
\n
\nRead more 
\n
\nBrazil’s Capital Markets Hit A 2025 Record, But Equity Still Went Missing
\n
\nRead more 
\n
\nIbovespa Tests 180,000 As Commodity Surge And Foreign Flows Power A Fourth Record Day
\n
\nRead more 
\n
\nThe Real Extends Its Rally As USD/BRL Presses Into A Crowded Support Zone
\n
\nRead more 
\n
\nBitcoin Stalls As ETF Demand Fades And Washington Delays Keep Crypto In Limbo
\n
\nRead more 
\n
\nGold Breaks $5,000 As Silver Pushes Past $107 And The Rally Turns Parabolic-Like
\n
\nRead more 
\n

U.S. Markets on Friday

\nS&P 500 +2.26 to 6,915.61, Dow −285.30 to 49,098.71, Nasdaq +65.22 to 23,501.24. Almost flat/split finish; weekly S&P -0.4%, Dow -0.5%, Nasdaq -0.1%; Intel slide offset mega-cap tech; gold ~$4,980, silver >$100, WTI +3% to ~$61.15, 10y yield <4.24%.
\n

Regional Peers — Mixed to Positive:

\nColombia Opens The Week With A Firm Peso And A Still-Red-Hot Stock Rally
\n
\nRead more 
\n
\nMexico Morning Markets: Peso Firm Near 17.38, Stocks Hold Weekly Gains
\n
\nRead more
\n
\nArgentina Markets Hold A Narrow Spread As Dollar Weakness Returns Globally
\n
\nRead more 
\n
\nChile’s Peso Stays Firm As USD/CLP Tests The Mid-860s, While IPSA Holds Near Records
\n
\nRead more 
\n
\nNote: Crypto markets remain cautious after recent forced selling.

Related coverage: Ibovespa session | dollar-real exchange rate