Brazil’s Financial Morning Call for January 26, 2026

This is part of The Rio Times’ daily Brazil Financial Morning Call, covering Latin American financial markets.

Today’s Key Themes

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• Brex sale → Brazilian-founded Brex sells to Capital One for $5.15B; stock falls 6% amid fintech consolidation and U.S. market reactions.

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• Capital markets record → Brazil’s capital markets hit 2025 record with R$838.8B ($155B) in offerings, up 6.4% YoY, driven by fixed income (R$737.7B, +3.4%) like debentures (R$492.8B) and securitization (R$241.8B); equity shrank to R$15.5B (-38%), extending IPO drought to four years since Wilson Sons (later delisted post-MSC acquisition); real-estate funds surged (FIIs R$79.2B, +77.2%).

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• Ibovespa surge → +1.86% to 178,858.54 on R$35.9B turnover; intraday record 180,532.28, low 175,589.66; commodity gains (oil +~2.8%, iron ore) lifted Petrobras (+4.35%), Vale (+2.46%), amid foreign flows and U.S. pressure on Iran.

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• Real strengthening → USD/BRL ~R$5.2895 (range R$5.2765–R$5.2977); extended rally pressing 5.28–5.27 support on persistent real demand and oversold momentum (RSI ~28.8); broader downswing with negative MACD.

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• Crypto stall → Bitcoin ~$87,750 (daily $86,422–$87,970, -1.1%); stalled below $88,000 resistance on fading ETF demand, negative spot flows, Washington crypto bill delays; ETH ~$2,893 (-1.6%), SOL ~$122 (-3.2%), XRP ~$1.88 (-0.9%).

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• Gold/silver advance → Gold $5,089.78/oz (high $5,112, +2.2%) broke $5,000 on safe-haven demand amid U.S. policy instability, dollar weakness; silver $107.903/oz (high $109.4, +4.8%) parabolic momentum/leverage surge.

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\nBroader risk: Commodity momentum and real/equity rebounds ease EM pressure, but stretched gains, oversold conditions, and fintech/U.S. policy uncertainties could spur volatility; capital markets strength and metals provide buffer.
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Economic Agenda for January 26, 2026

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Brazil

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• 6:25 AM BRT – BCB Focus Market Readout Cons: – Prev: –

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• 6:30 AM BRT – Current Account (USD) (Dec) Cons: – Prev: -4.94B

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• 6:30 AM BRT – Foreign direct investment (USD) (Dec) Cons: – Prev: 9.82B

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Mexico

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• 7:00 AM CST – Unemployment Rate (Dec) Cons: – Prev: 2.70%

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• 7:00 AM CST – Unemployment Rate n.s.a. (Dec) Cons: – Prev: 2.70%

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United States

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• 8:30 AM EST – Core Durable Goods Orders (MoM) (Nov) Cons: 0.3% Prev: 0.2%

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• 8:30 AM EST – Durable Goods Orders (MoM) (Nov) Cons: 3.1% Prev: -2.2%

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• 10:30 AM EST – Dallas Fed Mfg Business Index (Jan) Cons: – Prev: -10.9

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EU

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• 3:00 AM CET – Spanish PPI (YoY) (Dec) Act: -3.0% Cons: – Prev: -2.5%

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• 4:00 AM CET – German Ifo Business Climate Index (Jan) Act: 87.6 Cons: 88.3 Prev: 87.6

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• 6:00 AM CET – German Buba President Nagel Speaks

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UK

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• 7:01 PM GMT – BRC Shop Price Index (YoY) Cons: 0.7% Prev: 0.7%

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\nImplication: Brazil’s BCB Focus informs rate/inflation views amid real strength; Current Account/FDI gauge external health for FX resilience. Mexico’s unemployment data test labor/growth for Banxico.
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\nU.S. durables/Dallas Fed probe manufacturing/resilience, potentially lifting yields/pressing EMFX. EU Spanish PPI/Ifo/Nagel add inflation/sentiment/policy nuance; UK BRC tracks consumer prices post-holidays. U.S./EU data dominate global tone amid commodity bids and dollar softness.
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Brazil’s Markets on Friday

\nIbovespa +1.86% to 178,858.54 on R$35.9 billion turnover (heavy). Opened at 175,589.66 (session low), hit intraday record 180,532.28. Commodity surge (oil +~2.8%, iron ore) and foreign flows fueled rally; Petrobras (+4.35%), Vale (+2.46%) led.
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Commodity Markets

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Palladium

\nPrice: $2,081/oz, up 2.69%.
\nWhat’s happening: Catching up after lagging, with speculators leaning into risk-off impulse.
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Platinum

\nPrice: $2,864.40/oz, up 4.49%.
\nWhat’s happening: In breakout phase, pulled higher by broader rush into hard assets.
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Gold

\nPrice: $5,089.78/oz, up 2.2%.
\nWhat’s happening: Safe-haven demand surged as investors questioned U.S. policy stability and dollar weakened.
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\nRead more 
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Silver

\nPrice: $107.903/oz, up 4.8%.
\nWhat’s happening: Acting like momentum trade on top of haven bid, so swings getting violent.
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\nRead more 
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Copper

\nPrice: $13,115/ton, up 2.82% (LME 3-month, day-delayed close).
\nWhat’s happening: Staying near record territory as tight inventories keep market jumpy about supply.
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Aluminum

\nPrice: $3,169/ton, down 0.14% (LME 3-month).
\nWhat’s happening: Cooling slightly after strong run, but market still looks tight.
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Iron ore (62% Fe CFR futures)

\nPrice: about $106.36/ton, essentially flat on the screen.
\nWhat’s happening: Trading looks thin at this level, with prices waiting on clearer China steel-demand signals.
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Currency

\nBrazilian Real → USD/BRL near R$5.2895 after sharp retreat; persistent real demand, oversold momentum (RSI ~28.8), negative MACD support downswing into 5.28–5.27 zone.
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\nRead more
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Companies and Market

\nBrazilian-Founded Brex Sells to Capital One for $5.15 Billion, Stock Falls 6%
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\nRead more 
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\nBrazil’s Capital Markets Hit A 2025 Record, But Equity Still Went Missing
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\nRead more 
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\nIbovespa Tests 180,000 As Commodity Surge And Foreign Flows Power A Fourth Record Day
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\nRead more 
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\nThe Real Extends Its Rally As USD/BRL Presses Into A Crowded Support Zone
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\nRead more 
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\nBitcoin Stalls As ETF Demand Fades And Washington Delays Keep Crypto In Limbo
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\nRead more 
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\nGold Breaks $5,000 As Silver Pushes Past $107 And The Rally Turns Parabolic-Like
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\nRead more 
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U.S. Markets on Friday

\nS&P 500 +2.26 to 6,915.61, Dow −285.30 to 49,098.71, Nasdaq +65.22 to 23,501.24. Almost flat/split finish; weekly S&P -0.4%, Dow -0.5%, Nasdaq -0.1%; Intel slide offset mega-cap tech; gold ~$4,980, silver >$100, WTI +3% to ~$61.15, 10y yield <4.24%.
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Regional Peers — Mixed to Positive:

\nColombia Opens The Week With A Firm Peso And A Still-Red-Hot Stock Rally
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\nMexico Morning Markets: Peso Firm Near 17.38, Stocks Hold Weekly Gains
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\nRead more
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\nArgentina Markets Hold A Narrow Spread As Dollar Weakness Returns Globally
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\nRead more 
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\nChile’s Peso Stays Firm As USD/CLP Tests The Mid-860s, While IPSA Holds Near Records
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\nRead more 
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\nNote: Crypto markets remain cautious after recent forced selling.

Related coverage: Ibovespa session | dollar-real exchange rate

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