Asia Intelligence Brief for Tuesday, March 10, 2026

1 Asian markets rebound sharply — KOSPI surges 6.4%, Nikkei +2.9%, MSCI Asia-Pacific ex-Japan +2.6% — after Trump signals war “very complete” and oil crashes 10%+; Korea Exchange triggers sidecar curb; Iran vows to fight on — Asian equities rallied Tuesday after Trump told CBS News the war is “very complete, pretty much”; KOSPI surged 5.4% to 5,532 (sidecar curb triggered); Nikkei jumped 2.9% to 54,248; Hang Seng +2.1%; MSCI Asia-Pacific ex-Japan +2.6%; Brent fell as much as 11% below $88; however, gains fell far short of Monday’s losses — the KOSPI had plunged 5.96% Monday; Iran’s Revolutionary Guards warned strikes would intensify and the Hormuz blockade would persist; Trump then threatened on Truth Social that Iran would be hit “TWENTY TIMES HARDER” if it blocks oil flows; US equity futures muted at −0.2%, suggesting Wall Street is less convinced

2 China trade surplus hits record $213.6 billion in Jan-Feb — exports surge 21.8% vs 7.1% forecast; on track to top 2025’s record $1.2 trillion; CPI rebounds to 1.3%; manufacturers redirect to EU and ASEAN as US tariffs eased by Supreme Court — Chinese customs data released Tuesday showed exports surging 21.8% year-on-year in January-February to $656.58 billion — triple the 7.1% consensus and the fastest growth since October 2021; imports jumped 19.8%; the surplus of $213.62 billion crushed the $179.6 billion forecast; China is on track to top 2025’s record $1.2 trillion; CPI rose 1.3% in February (strongest since January 2023), beating 0.8% consensus — signalling Beijing’s deflation trap may be breaking; manufacturers have redirected exports to the EU, ASEAN and Africa after the Supreme Court struck down Trump’s IEEPA tariffs; Premier Li Qiang’s 4.5–5% GDP target — the lowest on record — was met with scepticism that Beijing will shift from export reliance

3 Japan Q4 GDP revised sharply up to 1.3% annualised from 0.2% initial estimate — solid business investment drives upgrade; but Nikkei remains in correction territory; BoJ March 19 meeting looms; 40% Middle East oil dependency is Japan’s core vulnerability — Japan’s Cabinet Office revised Q4 2025 GDP sharply up to 1.3% annualised from 0.2%, driven by business investment; the revision boosted Tuesday’s rebound but the Nikkei remains in correction — down 10%+ from February highs after Monday’s 5.2% crash; Japan relies on the Middle East for ~40% of its oil, and Nikkei Asia reports the petrochemical sector is warning of a naphtha crisis; the BoJ’s March 19 meeting is expected to hold as the oil shock complicates rate normalisation; yen at 157.85/$; Japan has not decided on releasing reserves but the G7 “stand ready” framework keeps the option live

4 US grants India 30-day sanctions waiver to buy Russian oil stranded at sea — Democrats demand immediate reversal as Russia found assisting Iran in targeting US forces; India rejects premise: “India has never depended on permission from any country to buy Russian oil” — The US Treasury issued a 30-day sanctions carve-out allowing Indian refiners to buy Russian crude stranded at sea — an emergency measure to ease prices; on Monday, Rep. Liccardo (D-CA) and Sen. Gallego (D-AZ) called the waiver “dangerous, self-defeating, and indefensible” after reports that Russia is sharing intelligence with Iran to target US forces; India’s government responded that it has “never depended on permission from any country to buy Russian oil”; Bessent is reportedly considering lifting more Russian sanctions; India imports 89% of its crude, with Russia at ~36%; the IEA warned sanctions on Rosneft and Lukoil “may have the most far-reaching impact yet on global oil markets”

5 China restricts exports to 40 Japanese entities — “remilitarisation” retaliation continues; Mitsubishi Heavy targeted; rare earths cut off; Tokyo calls it “absolutely unacceptable”; NPC sets lowest GDP target on record at 4.5–5%; 15th Five-Year Plan launched with focus on self-reliance — China’s export restrictions on 40 Japanese entities — citing “remilitarisation” — continue disrupting semiconductor and defence supply chains; Mitsubishi Heavy is the highest-profile target, cut off from rare earths; Japan called it “absolutely unacceptable” and summoned the Chinese ambassador; the most significant bilateral escalation since the 2012 rare earth embargo; China controls ~60% of global rare earth mining and 90% of processing; the NPC set a 2026 GDP target of 4.5–5% (lowest on record) and launched the 15th Five-Year Plan emphasising self-reliance and semiconductor tripling; fiscal deficit at ~4% of GDP

MARKETS Tuesday’s Asia rebound is violent but not convincing. The KOSPI recovered 5.4% after losing 5.96% — mathematically, that’s still net negative. Oil dropping from $119 to $88 is relief, not resolution. Iran’s defiance and the Hormuz blockade persist. The market is trading Trump’s words, not the physical reality of a closed strait.

TRADE China’s $213.6 billion surplus is a geopolitical fact dressed as an economic statistic. Exports growing three times faster than forecast while the domestic economy deflates means China is exporting its overcapacity problem. The EU, ASEAN and Africa are absorbing what the US used to. This is the trade war by other means.

MACRO Japan’s GDP revision from 0.2% to 1.3% is one of the largest upward revisions in recent memory. It gives the BoJ slightly more room to manoeuvre at March 19 — but the oil shock is the dominant variable. Japan cannot normalise rates while its energy bill is doubling.

ENERGY The India-Russia oil waiver exposes the contradiction at the heart of US sanctions policy: punishing Russia while needing its oil to keep global prices from spiralling. Democrats calling it “dangerous” while the administration calls it “necessary” is the political expression of that contradiction.

TECH China’s rare earth restrictions on 40 Japanese entities are the most potent asymmetric weapon in Beijing’s arsenal. Japan can’t build advanced missiles or next-generation chips without Chinese rare earths. The restrictions reframe the China-Japan relationship around a dependency that Tokyo has spent a decade trying — and failing — to diversify away from.

1 China CPI rebounds to 1.3% in February — the strongest since January 2023, beating the 0.8% consensus; follows a 0.2% January reading; signals Beijing’s deflation trap may finally be breaking; food and services prices both contributed.

2 Korean banks launch emergency reviews of ₩99.3 trillion (~$67B) in oil-exposed loans — KB Kookmin, Shinhan, Hana and Woori reviewing petrochemical, aviation, shipping and construction exposures; Financial Supervisory Service convening FX liquidity meeting Tuesday.

3 Saudi Aramco warns extended Hormuz disruption could “severely destabilise” global oil — the warning from the world’s largest oil company underscores that the current supply interruption is structural, not speculative; Saudi offered 4.6 million barrels via Red Sea pipeline Monday.

4 NVIDIA GTC 2026 opens March 16–19 in San Jose — Jensen Huang’s keynote on Monday March 17 will be the most closely watched AI event of the year; Vera Rubin platform expected; comes as BofA warns AI capex faces “energy bottleneck” from the oil shock.

5 Siam Cement (SET: SCC) suspends Rayong operations — Thailand’s largest industrial conglomerate suspended olefin operations at its Rayong complex due to surging feedstock costs; reaffirmed financial position to weather prolonged disruption.

6 Trump expected to visit Beijing later this month — the highly anticipated leaders’ summit between Trump and Xi could address tariffs, rare earth restrictions, and the Iran conflict; hopes for a meaningful truce remain low but the meeting signals diplomatic engagement continues.

Wang Wentao — China’s Commerce Minister hinted Friday at the NPC that trade data would be “better than expected”; the 21.8% export surge validated his confidence and reinforced Beijing’s position that the export machine can power through geopolitical headwinds.

Scott Bessent — US Treasury Secretary issued the India oil waiver and is reportedly considering lifting more Russian oil sanctions; Democrats say his approach “rewards Russia with a windfall” while it targets US forces; the most powerful man in energy markets this week.

Li Qiang — China’s Premier set the 4.5–5% GDP target at the NPC and launched the 15th Five-Year Plan; economists see the plan’s consumption pledges as insufficient to shift from export dependency, but the fiscal deficit at 4% of GDP signals willingness to spend.

Kazuo Ueda — BoJ Governor faces the March 19 meeting with a dramatically revised GDP (1.3% vs 0.2%) but an oil shock that makes rate normalisation riskier; market consensus is a hold, but the statement language on inflation risks will be closely parsed.

Chris Weston — Pepperstone analyst captured the Tuesday mood: Trump‘s remarks were “enough to spark hopes of some normalisation in supply and logistical dynamics” but cautioned the fundamental picture remains unresolved; his commentary reflects Asia’s cautious optimism.

1 BoJ March 19 meeting — rate decision alongside the FOMC (March 17–18); GDP revision gives room but oil shock constrains; market expects hold; yen at 157.85; statement language on inflation forward guidance critical.

2 China export restrictions on Japan — scope expanding — 40 entities targeted; rare earths, advanced materials cut off; Mitsubishi Heavy most prominent; Japan exploring diversification via Australia, Canada and African sources but processing remains a bottleneck.

3 India-US sanctions architecture under strain — Treasury’s 30-day Russian oil waiver undermines the sanctions framework that the US built over three years; EU’s January 2026 ban on refined products from Russian crude adds pressure on Indian refiners exporting to Europe.

4 South Korea FSS emergency FX meeting Tuesday — Financial Supervisory Service convening deputy heads of commercial bank FX operations to assess foreign currency liquidity; won intervention ongoing; ₩99.3 trillion (~$67B) in oil-exposed corporate loans under review.

Asia’s markets chose to believe Trump’s words over Iran’s actions. The KOSPI surging 6.4% and Nikkei adding 2.9% represents a market desperate for the war to end — and willing to trade on a CBS quote. But the Strait of Hormuz remains closed, Iran vows to intensify, and Mojtaba Khamenei is rallying hardliners. Oil falling from $119 to $88 is a sentiment trade, not a supply resolution.

China’s record surplus is the most important data point in Asia this year. Exports growing 21.8% while the domestic economy barely exits deflation is Beijing’s model in purest form: produce cheaply, export aggressively, let the world absorb the overcapacity. The Supreme Court’s tariff ruling has reopened the US market at 10%. For ASEAN, the EU and Africa, this surplus is not a statistic but a competitive threat reshaping their industrial landscapes.

Japan’s GDP revision to 1.3% doesn’t solve the fundamental problem: 40% of its oil comes from the Middle East. The naphtha crisis is not a footnote — it’s the feedstock for plastics and pharmaceuticals. The BoJ’s March 19 meeting arrives at the worst moment: stronger GDP argues for normalisation, the oil shock argues for caution. Ueda will hold, but his inflation language will be parsed for signals on whether the shock is temporary or structural.

The India waiver is the war’s most revealing contradiction. The US spent three years building sanctions to isolate Moscow, then dismantled a piece in ten days because the Iran war drove oil to levels threatening its own economy. India’s response — “we have never depended on permission” — is sovereign energy doctrine. Democrats have the stronger argument on principle. The administration has the stronger argument on price. Neither can resolve the contradiction.

China’s rare earth restrictions will outlast the Iran war. Japan cannot build advanced missiles or next-gen semiconductors without Chinese materials. Beijing’s message: military alignment with Washington has economic consequences. Japan has spent a decade diversifying sources — but processing remains 90% Chinese. Until that changes, Beijing holds a veto over Japan’s defence-industrial ambitions that no fiscal spending can override.