What matters today
1 Bangladesh votes in landmark election — 127 million eligible voters cast ballots in first polls since 2024 uprising; BNP takes early lead over Jamaat-e-Islami; vote counting under way; results expected Friday morning
2 Nikkei 225 breaches 58,000 for first time — “Takaichi trade” extends to fifth session as PM’s fiscal mandate lifts equities; index pares gains to close at 57,640; yen strengthens to 153 on intervention signals
3 Thailand election recount crisis deepens — 5,000+ complaints filed with Vote62 watchdog; students demand EC resignation; Anutin delays coalition formation; People’s Party seeks recounts in 10 constituencies
4 Gaza ceasefire Phase 2 tests regional order — technocratic government under Ali Shaath established; Hamas disarmament stalled; Indonesia and Morocco expected troop contributors; Israel strikes continue despite truce
01
Market Snapshot
Intraday Feb 12
Market Snapshot
Intraday Feb 12
| PAIR / INDEX | LEVEL | DAY CHG | SIGNAL |
|---|---|---|---|
| Nikkei 225 | 57,640 | Flat | — Hit 58,015 intraday record; pared gains |
| Hang Seng | 27,033 | -0.9% | ▼ profit-taking after 3-day rally |
| Shanghai CSI 300 | 4,720 | +0.1% | ▲ slight gains; MSCI outlook revision weighs |
| BSE Sensex | ~83,800 | +0.3% | ▲ US trade deal optimism; FII inflows |
| USD/JPY | ~153.1 | -0.1% | ▲ yen firms; 4th straight session of gains |
| USD/CNY | ~6.94 | Flat | — PBoC holds steady; tariff truce holds |
| USD/INR | ~90.56 | +0.3% | ▼ rupee slips on strong US jobs data |
| Brent Crude | $69.68/bbl | +0.4% | ▲ Iran sanctions; Hormuz tensions |
| Gold | $5,068/oz | +0.2% | ▲ 4th session of gains; safe-haven demand |
| Copper | ~$9,380/t | +0.3% | ▲ China infrastructure stimulus signals |
| LNG (Asia spot) | ~$14.20/MMBtu | -0.8% | ▼ mild weather; China storage levels high |
02
Conflict & Stability Tracker
Conflict & Stability Tracker
Critical
Gaza – Phase 2
Ceasefire Phase 2 launched Jan 14; technocratic government under Ali Shaath; Hamas disarmament stalled; 71,000+ dead; IDF strikes continue; international stabilization force deployment pending; Board of Peace operational
Escalating
Myanmar – Civil War
Junta-run elections completed but rejected by resistance; USDP claims mandate; ethnic armed organisations control ~60% of territory; humanitarian crisis deepens; China-brokered ceasefires fragile
Tense
Thailand – Post-Election
5,000+ fraud complaints; 113 formal EC complaints; student protests at EC HQ demanding nationwide recount; Anutin delays coalition; People’s Party and Pheu Thai demand recounts in multiple constituencies
Watching
South China Sea
Philippine–China tensions persist at Second Thomas Shoal; US–Japan joint statement reaffirms defence commitment; Takaichi’s “Economic Security” doctrine signals harder Indo-Pacific posture
03
Fast Take
Fast Take
BREAKINGBangladesh votes in 13th parliamentary election — 127 million registered voters; 299 of 300 constituencies contested; BNP takes early lead in 24 seats; Jamaat-e-Islami trails; National Citizen Party formed by 2024 uprising leaders also contesting; Yunus calls it “birthday of a new Bangladesh”; EU observers deployed from 45 countries
MARKETSNikkei 225 hits 58,015 intraday record then pares gains to close at 57,640 — “Takaichi trade” extends fifth session; PM’s fiscal mandate lifts equities; GMO says multi-year policy mandate broadly supportive; intervention risk rises as yen nears 160 floor; Topix +0.7% to record 3,882
CRISISThailand recount crisis intensifies — Vote62 watchdog records 5,000+ complaints including 1,000+ vote-count discrepancies; students demand EC commissioners resign; People’s Party seeks recounts in 10 provinces; Anutin delays picking coalition partners “until count is 100% complete”; Pheu Thai compiling evidence across constituencies
TRADEUS–India trade deal implementation advances — tariffs lowered from 50% to 18%; Russia oil tariff removed; India commits to $500 billion in US purchases over five years; EU also pressing FTA with Delhi; analysts warn “devil is in the details” with no explicit Russian oil commitment from Modi
CRICKETPakistan reverses India boycott at T20 World Cup — ten-day standoff ends after diplomatic intervention from Sri Lanka, UAE; PM Shehbaz Sharif directs team to take field Feb 15 in Colombo; ICC had warned of “significant and long-term” consequences; Bangladesh expelled from tournament after refusing to play in India
ECONOMYVietnam economy enters new growth cycle — GDP grew 8.02% in 2025, second-highest in 15 years; AMRO projects 7.6% for 2026; semiconductor and AI supply chains driving exports; Fitch warns rapid credit expansion raising leverage risks; Cambodia trade up 19% YoY in January
04
Developments to Watch
Developments to Watch
SOUTH ASIABangladesh Votes in Most Consequential Election in 55 Years
Bangladesh’s 13th parliamentary election got under way today across 42,761 polling centres in 64 districts, with 127 million registered voters choosing a new government 18 months after a student-led uprising toppled Sheikh Hasina’s two-decade rule. The contest is primarily between Tarique Rahman’s Bangladesh Nationalist Party (BNP) and a coalition of 11 parties led by the resurgent Jamaat-e-Islami under Shafiqur Rahman. Early trends show BNP leading in 24 seats. The National Citizen Party, formed by leaders of the 2024 uprising, is also contesting. Interim Chief Adviser Muhammad Yunus, the Nobel laureate who led the caretaker government, called the vote “the beginning of an unprecedented journey toward a new Bangladesh.” A concurrent referendum on the July National Charter is also being held. Voter turnout was reported at 32.9% by noon. The EU deployed observers from 45 countries. Localised violence — crude bombs in Gopalganj, arrests for ballot tampering in Sylhet — marred the lead-up, but officials described the atmosphere as largely peaceful and “festive.” Results are expected by Friday morning, though the dual ballot system may slow counting.
EAST ASIANikkei Hits 58,000 as “Takaichi Trade” Extends to Record Territory
Japan’s Nikkei 225 breached 58,000 for the first time in history on Thursday, hitting an intraday high of 58,015 before paring gains to close at 57,640. The benchmark has surged 15% year-to-date, fuelled by the “Takaichi trade” following Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi’s landslide Lower House election victory on February 8. Global investment firm GMO noted that Takaichi’s snap-election mandate gives her an “unusually strong, multi-year” policy runway, which markets view as broadly supportive for equities and corporate reform. The broader Topix advanced 0.7% to a record 3,882. Tech and AI-related stocks led gains: Kioxia Holdings +3.7%, SoftBank +2.9% ahead of earnings, and JX Advanced Metals +3.3% on strong results. However, experts at CNBC warned the rally is looking “increasingly fragile,” noting a disconnect between surging equity prices and Japan’s still-soft economic fundamentals. The yen strengthened to 153 per dollar for a fourth straight session, supported by verbal intervention from Finance Minister Katayama and currency diplomat Mimura. Markets are pricing in Bank of Japan rate hikes as Takaichi’s fiscal expansion gives the central bank more room to normalise.
SOUTHEAST ASIAThailand’s Recount Crisis Threatens Government Formation
Allegations of electoral fraud continue to mount following Thailand’s February 8 snap election, which saw PM Anutin Charnvirakul’s Bhumjaithai Party win an unexpected 193 seats. Independent watchdog Vote62 has recorded more than 5,000 complaints nationwide, including over 1,000 instances where official tallies at polling stations differed from those of independent observers. Students protested outside the Election Commission headquarters on Tuesday, demanding a nationwide recount, immediate investigations, and the resignation of all seven EC commissioners. The People’s Party has formally requested recounts in 10 constituencies across 10 provinces. Pheu Thai is compiling evidence of irregularities. Anutin himself said he would delay forming a coalition “until at the very least the EC says the count is 100 per cent complete.” While recounts are unlikely to change the overall result, the controversy threatens to slow government formation and has shaken public confidence in the electoral process. Social media hashtag #RecountForTheWholeCountry has trended on X in Thailand since Monday. The EC said it had received 113 formal complaints, all under investigation.
SOUTH ASIAUS–India Trade Deal: Relief and Residual Mistrust
The implementation of the US–India trade agreement announced February 2 is advancing, with Trump signing an executive order last week removing the 25% Russia oil tariff and lowering reciprocal tariffs to 18%. India commits to purchasing $500 billion in US goods over five years — energy, aircraft, precious metals, technology, and coal. India will eliminate or reduce tariffs on all US industrial goods and a range of agricultural products. The deal gives India a slightly more favourable rate than Pakistan (19%), Vietnam (20%), and Bangladesh (20%). However, analysts warn trust remains fragile. CNBC’s Evan Feigenbaum of Carnegie noted the “devil is in the details,” with Modi making no explicit commitment on Russian oil. The Stimson Center observed that Pakistan, China, Russia, and the EU all “took full advantage” of the extended period of US–India distrust during 2025. The Atlantic Council’s Mark Linscott called the deal “just what the doctor ordered” but cautioned about implementation timelines. The EU has simultaneously pressed its own FTA with Delhi, providing India with an alternative Western economic anchor.
WEST ASIAGaza Phase 2: Technocratic Government Established, Disarmament Stalled
The Gaza ceasefire’s second phase, announced January 14 by US envoy Steve Witkoff, is testing the durability of the October 2025 truce. A technocratic government under Ali Shaath — a former Palestinian Authority deputy minister — has been established in Cairo with backing from Egypt, Turkey, and Qatar. Former UN envoy Nikolay Mladenov will serve as the Board of Peace’s on-ground representative. However, Hamas disarmament remains the critical unresolved issue: a senior Hamas official clarified the group has “never” agreed to lay down all weapons. Israel struck a Gaza hospital last week, killing 19 Palestinians and claiming Hamas had attacked its forces. The death toll now exceeds 71,000. Indonesia and Morocco are expected to be the main troop contributors to the international stabilization force. The UN Security Council debated the ceasefire this week, with Pakistan joining the Board of Peace alongside Bahrain. 100% of basic food needs are now being met for the first time since 2023, though shelter remains the critical gap.
SOUTH ASIAPakistan Reverses India Cricket Boycott After Diplomatic Intervention
A ten-day standoff over Pakistan’s refusal to play India at the T20 World Cup in Colombo ended after diplomatic intervention from Sri Lanka and the UAE. PM Shehbaz Sharif directed the national team to take the field for the February 15 fixture, citing “outcomes achieved in multilateral discussions” and “the request of friendly countries.” The ICC had warned of “significant and long-term” consequences for Pakistan’s refusal. The crisis followed India’s own refusal to play in Pakistan at last year’s Champions Trophy, which forced a “hybrid” model moving knockouts to Dubai. Bangladesh was expelled from the tournament after its cricket board refused to send its team to India, following the IPL’s jettisoning of Bangladeshi players. The ICC has been criticised for allowing cricket to become a medium for South Asian geopolitical blows, with India’s economic dominance — it generates 80%+ of global cricket revenue — effectively setting the terms for the sport’s governance.
EAST ASIAUS–China Tariff Truce Holds but Fragility Persists
The US–China tariff truce, extended in November 2025 through November 10, 2026, continues to hold amid what Bloomberg called a “fragile” ceasefire. Under the deal, both sides reduced tariffs imposed in April 2025 from 125% to 10% on each other’s goods. China faces the highest effective tariff rate among US trading partners at 34.7%. The total US tariff revenue in 2025 was $287 billion, a 192% increase from 2024 — the largest tax increase as a percentage of GDP since 1993. China’s 2026 tariff schedule introduces 935 product categories at provisional rates lower than MFN, targeting high-tech, healthcare, and green transition sectors. However, multiple federal courts have ruled that Trump exceeded IEEPA authorities in imposing some tariffs. Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick signalled tolerance for a weaker dollar this week, adding uncertainty. The Penn Wharton Budget Model estimates the tariffs amount to an average tax increase of $1,500 per US household in 2026.
SOUTHEAST ASIAVietnam Enters New Growth Cycle as AI Supply Chains Anchor Economy
Vietnam continues to attract strong international interest, with GDP growing 8.02% in 2025 — the second-highest rate in 15 years. The ASEAN+3 Macroeconomic Research Office (AMRO) projects 7.6% growth for 2026, the highest in the region. Global demand for semiconductors, AI-related applications, and digital services is providing strong support, with deeper integration into regional technology value chains seen as a long-term structural advantage. Cambodia’s trade also surged, with January 2026 exports up 26.6% year-on-year to $2.91 billion. However, Fitch Ratings warned that Vietnam’s high growth targets could increase pressure for rapid credit expansion, raising leverage risks. The credit-to-GDP ratio has risen quickly, and Fitch noted that stability in senior leadership — following 2025’s anti-corruption upheavals — would be critical for reform continuity. The Philippines’ corruption ranking fell six places to 120th out of 182 countries on Transparency International’s 2025 index.
EAST ASIASouth Korea’s Lee Jae Myung Navigates Post-Election Diplomacy
South Korean President Lee Jae Myung, who met Japanese PM Takaichi in Nara on January 13, is navigating a rapidly shifting East Asian diplomatic landscape. The KOSPI recorded modest gains on Thursday, with the benchmark rising marginally to around 5,300 as foreign capital from the Japanese rally spilled over. South Korea faces an 18% US reciprocal tariff rate under the framework agreement, with preferential rates on automobiles and auto parts. The country’s semiconductor exports remain a critical engine: Samsung and SK Hynix benefit from the global AI infrastructure build-out, though Washington’s export controls on advanced chips to China continue to create policy tension. Currency swings were larger than normal on February 12 due to thin trading on the national holiday. South Korea is positioning itself as a critical link in the US-allied technology supply chain, balancing economic ties with China against security alignment with Washington and Tokyo.
SOUTH ASIAIndia–Pakistan Tensions Spill Across Sport, Trade, and Geopolitics
India and Pakistan’s rivalry is playing out across multiple arenas simultaneously. On the cricket field, Pakistan’s boycott reversal at the T20 World Cup came after the ICC threatened financial and legal consequences, while Bangladesh was expelled for refusing to play in India. In trade, India secured an 18% US tariff rate versus Pakistan’s 19%, but the Stimson Center notes Pakistan “deftly” leveraged the 2025 US–India rupture to rebuild Washington ties across counterterrorism, critical minerals, Gaza, and even cryptocurrency. Trump’s repeated offers to mediate the India–Pakistan conflict deeply unsettled Delhi. India’s move to restrict Russian oil purchases — while Pakistan deepened energy ties with Moscow — further reshapes regional alliances. India faces US tariffs of 18%, having come down from 50%, while still navigating the political fallout of a year in which its relationship with Washington deteriorated more sharply than at any point since the Cold War.
05
Sovereign & Credit Pulse
Sovereign & Credit Pulse
| COUNTRY | KEY DEVELOPMENT | CREDIT SIGNAL |
|---|---|---|
| Japan | Takaichi fiscal expansion; 10Y JGB yield at 25-year high; Nikkei record | Fiscal dominance risk rising; BoJ normalisation priced in |
| India | US trade deal at 18%; $500B purchase commitment; Russian oil question open | Relief rally; implementation risk remains the key variable |
| Bangladesh | Election day; BNP leading early; US preferential market access agreed | Transition from caretaker to elected government a positive signal |
| Thailand | Anutin election win; recount crisis; coalition formation delayed | Foreign inflows $530M Monday; political uncertainty may cap upside |
| China | Tariff truce through Nov 2026; MSCI outlook revision; 935 tariff reductions | Stimulus signals positive; property overhang and deflation persist |
| Vietnam | 8.02% GDP 2025; 7.6% forecast 2026; semiconductor supply chain gains | Strong fundamentals; credit-to-GDP ratio warrants monitoring |
06
Power Players
Power Players
| WHO | ROLE | WHY IT MATTERS |
|---|---|---|
| Sanae Takaichi | Prime Minister, Japan | Landslide win drives “Takaichi trade”; fiscal expansion mandate; yen and Nikkei moving on her agenda |
| Tarique Rahman | Acting Chair, Bangladesh BNP | Back from 17-year exile; frontrunner for PM as BNP leads early counting |
| Anutin Charnvirakul | Caretaker PM, Thailand | Election winner faces recount crisis; delaying coalition formation until EC confirms results |
| Muhammad Yunus | Interim Chief Adviser, Bangladesh | Oversaw transition to democracy; called election “birthday of new Bangladesh” |
| Narendra Modi | Prime Minister, India | Secured 18% tariff deal with Trump; navigating Russian oil pressure and EU courtship |
| Steve Witkoff | US Special Envoy, Middle East | Announced Gaza Phase 2; managing Hamas disarmament impasse and Board of Peace rollout |
| Shehbaz Sharif | Prime Minister, Pakistan | Reversed India cricket boycott under ICC pressure; balancing domestic nationalism with global obligations |
07
Regulatory & Policy Watch
Regulatory & Policy Watch
| JURISDICTION | MEASURE | STATUS / IMPACT |
|---|---|---|
| US–India | Bilateral Trade Agreement interim framework | Tariffs at 18%; Russia oil tariff removed; negotiations on BTA to continue |
| US–China | Tariff truce extension through Nov 10, 2026 | 10% reciprocal tariff remains; Section 301 exclusions extended; federal courts challenging IEEPA authority |
| Japan | Takaichi fiscal package — sales tax suspension, defence spending | 8% food sales tax suspension pledged for 2 years; bond market watching closely |
| Thailand | Election Commission recount process | 113 formal complaints filed; EC investigating; coalition formation on hold |
| China | 2026 Tariff Schedule — 935 provisional reductions | Targets high-tech, healthcare, green transition; 8,972 product categories total |
| Gaza / Board of Peace | Phase 2 technocratic governance and ISF deployment | Ali Shaath government established; Indonesia and Morocco expected troop contributors |
08
Calendar
Next 72 Hours
Calendar
Next 72 Hours
| DATE | EVENT | SIGNIFICANCE |
|---|---|---|
| Feb 12 | Bangladesh 13th parliamentary election — vote counting under way | First post-Hasina election; results expected Friday morning; sets democratic trajectory |
| Feb 12 | SoftBank Group earnings release (FY ending March 31) | AI investment barometer; stock up 11%+ this week on upgraded forecasts |
| Feb 13 | Bangladesh election results announced (expected) | BNP vs Jamaat outcome determines coalition and policy direction |
| Feb 13 | Thailand EC formal complaint review deadline | Outcome determines pace of government formation and potential re-elections |
| Feb 15 | Pakistan vs India — T20 World Cup, Colombo | Geopolitical flashpoint turned sporting event; boycott reversed after diplomatic pressure |
| Feb 14–15 | AU Heads of State summit, Addis Ababa (Asia–Africa relevance) | Critical minerals, logistics competition, resource sovereignty — cross-continental implications |
| Feb (mid) | US–India bilateral trade agreement interim implementation begins | Tariff reductions take effect; market access expansion; $500B purchase commitment clock starts |
09
Bottom Line
Bottom Line
Two elections and a record-breaking stock market define Asia’s February 12. In Dhaka, 127 million Bangladeshis are voting in the most consequential election since independence — a test of whether the post-Hasina order can deliver genuine democratic renewal or will merely reshuffle the same factional deck between BNP and Jamaat. In Bangkok, the aftermath of February 8’s snap election has produced not a mandate but a legitimacy crisis, with five thousand fraud complaints and student protesters demanding a system reboot. Both elections carry the same undercurrent: citizens who overthrew authoritarian systems now discovering that the harder work is building institutions that command public trust. Meanwhile in Tokyo, the Nikkei’s breach of 58,000 is less about Japan’s economic fundamentals — which remain soft — than about the market’s willingness to bet on one politician’s fiscal vision. The “Takaichi trade” is ultimately a wager that Japan can spend its way to growth without triggering the bond market reckoning that has haunted the country for decades. Across the wider region, the tariff architecture Trump built in 2025 is hardening into permanent infrastructure: India at 18%, China at 34.7%, Pakistan at 19%, Vietnam at 20%. Every major Asian capital is calibrating sovereignty against the price of American market access. The thread connecting Dhaka’s polling stations, Bangkok’s protest camps, Tokyo’s trading floors, and the Gaza ceasefire’s second phase is the same: Asia’s institutions are being stress-tested by the simultaneous demands of democratic legitimacy, economic sovereignty, and a great-power competition that treats tariffs as the primary language of diplomacy.
Asia Intelligence Brief
Daily Edition · Thursday, February 12, 2026