Argentina Merval Rebounds 2.15% to 2.63M; Oil Surge Tests

01 Market Snapshot

02 Key Movers

Friday’s +2.15% session represented a technical bounce from oversold conditions after the Merval shed 22% from its January 28 ATH. The rebound was led by energy names benefiting from the oil surge: YPF, Vista Energy, and Pampa Energía were the likely top gainers, continuing a pattern seen earlier in the week where Transportadora de Gas del Norte gained 2.8%, Transener 1.8%, and Transportadora de Gas del Sur 1.6% during the March 4 session.

Earlier in the week, the banking sector continued to weigh heavily on the index. On Wednesday March 5, ADR losses were led by Grupo Supervielle (−4.2%), Ternium (−3.9%), IRSA (−3.2%), and Telecom (−3.1%). The financial sector selloff — triggered by weak Q4 earnings, rising delinquency, and the six-bank sell recommendation on Argentine bonds — remains the index’s primary headwind. Aluar surged 8% on Wednesday, benefiting from the Hormuz-driven commodity premium on aluminum.

03 Market Commentary

Friday’s session delivered the Merval’s first meaningful bounce of the week. The index opened at 2,572,262.75 — essentially flat with Wednesday’s close of 2,570,733 — then climbed steadily to a high of 2,647,349.34 before settling at 2,626,114.83, a gain of 55,381 points (+2.15%). The candle structure was constructive: a strong close near the upper portion of the range, with no lower wick (the open was the low), suggesting sustained buying throughout the session.

The broader context remains bearish despite the bounce. The Merval in dollars has fallen roughly 18.5% from its ATH in just over a month, suffering its seventh decline in nine sessions through Wednesday according to Ámbito. The riesgo país has been ranging between 546 and 594 bps this week — well above the sub-500 threshold the government considers essential for re-accessing international debt markets. The six-bank sell convergence on Wednesday (Citi, JP Morgan, BofA, Barclays, Wells Fargo) continues to reverberate through institutional allocation decisions.

The BCRA remains the session’s anchor of stability. Through Wednesday, the central bank had purchased over USD 2.8 billion YTD, representing roughly 24% of its annual target. The dollar mayorista closed at ARS 1,407 on Wednesday, still approximately 14.9% below the band ceiling of ARS 1,616.01, giving the BCRA substantial intervention room. The dollar blue at ARS 1,380 remained below the bank buying rate, reflecting the unwinding of pre-election over-dollarization from late 2025.

04 Currency

Argentina’s FX dynamics remain dominated by local factors rather than global dollar strength. As of Wednesday, the mayorista was at ARS 1,407, up ARS 10 in the first five days of March. The BCRA band ceiling of ARS 1,616.01 provides a 14.9% buffer, and the central bank’s persistent accumulation (>USD 2.8B YTD) keeps the peso anchored within the band. The dollar blue at ARS 1,380 — below the bank buying rate of ARS 1,375 — reflects portfolio rebalancing from the pre-election dollarization wave.

However, the oil shock introduces new FX dynamics. Higher oil prices boost Argentina’s current account via Vaca Muerta exports, but the simultaneous rise in global risk aversion strengthens the DXY (up ~1.5% weekly to 98.92) and pressures EM currencies. The net effect depends on whether the energy channel (positive for reserves) outweighs the financial channel (negative for spreads and capital flows). US nonfarm payrolls (−92,000 jobs) reopened the Fed rate-cut narrative, which could provide some EM relief if confirmed by upcoming inflation data.

05 Technical Analysis

Daily (1D):

Friday’s candle was a strong bullish session (O: 2,572,262.75, H: 2,647,349.34, L: 2,572,262.75, C: 2,626,114.83). The open equaled the low — a marubozu-like pattern where buyers were in control from the opening bell. The close near the upper portion of the range signals genuine buying interest, not merely short-covering. Price remains below all visible moving averages, with the Bollinger Bands still widened to the downside.

The MACD remains deeply bearish: the MACD line is at −19,472.71, the signal at −92,895.91, and the histogram at −112,368.62 — all three well below zero. However, the RSI is the critical signal: at 35.70/35.65, both components are touching the classic 30–36 oversold zone that has historically preceded tactical bounces in the Merval, including during the October 2025 pre-election selloff. The 200-day SMA sits at approximately 2,456,698, which is 6.4% below Friday’s close and represents the next major structural support.

06 Forward Look

Oil Shock — Argentina’s Dual Channel:

Argentina is uniquely positioned among EM markets on the Hormuz crisis. Vaca Muerta and the energy export profile mean elevated oil prices directly benefit the current account, export duty revenues, and energy-sector equities (YPF, Vista, Pampa, TGS). However, as StoneX strategist Ramiro Blázquez noted, “greater risk aversion hurts us on the financial side and the riesgo país.” A quick resolution favors spread compression; a prolonged crisis favors energy earnings but keeps the riesgo país elevated.

Six-Bank Sell Convergence:

The simultaneous Wednesday sell recommendations from six global banks remain the most powerful near-term headwind. The riesgo país at ~550 bps has room to re-test the 594 intraday high from March 3 if the recommendations trigger further institutional liquidation. A sustained break above 600 would signal that financial capital is leaving Argentina for safer markets, per analyst Marcelo Falak.

US Macro Calendar — Week of March 10:

Key releases include US CPI (Wednesday), housing data (Thursday), and Q4 GDP plus PCE deflator (Friday). Friday’s payrolls shock (−92,000 jobs) reopened the rate-cut narrative — a soft CPI reading could provide EM relief. But hot inflation data would push cuts further back, widening the riesgo país.

Global Contagion:

Asia’s Monday rout — Nikkei −7%, KOSPI −8% (circuit breaker), S&P 500 futures −1.7% — will likely erase Friday’s bounce on BYMA. Argentina’s high beta means it typically amplifies global moves, and the VIX at 29.49 confirms elevated fear levels. The BCRA’s reserve accumulation (>USD 2.8B YTD) and the peso’s position well inside the band provide some buffer, but the riesgo país at 550+ leaves Argentine assets vulnerable to further EM outflows.

Verdict

Friday’s 2.15% bounce was a constructive technical signal — the RSI at 35.70/35.65 touching the oversold threshold historically precedes at least short-term tactical bounces in the Merval. The marubozu-like candle structure (open = low) and energy-led buying suggest genuine demand, not just short-covering. However, the broader setup remains deeply bearish: the MACD histogram at −112,369 confirms sustained downside momentum, the six-bank sell convergence is still reverberating, and the riesgo país at 550+ has erased six weeks of spread compression.

The Merval has shed 22% from its January 28 ATH of 3,296,502 — a textbook bear market in peso terms. The 200-day SMA at 2,456,698 is 6.4% below the current close and represents the critical structural support. The BCRA’s persistent reserve accumulation (>USD 2.8B YTD) and the peso’s position inside the band provide genuine counterweights to the negative bond and equity signals.

Bias: BEARISH — maintained despite Friday’s bounce. The six-bank sell convergence, rising riesgo país, and deeply negative MACD outweigh the oversold RSI and BCRA accumulation. With Asia plunging Monday and Brent above $100, the bounce is likely to be tested immediately. A recovery above 2,672,570 (R1 / declining MA) with riesgo país below 520 turns bias Neutral. A break below 2,456,698 (200-SMA) targets the 2,200,000 structural support.

Disclaimer: This report is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. All data sourced from BYMA, TradingView, Ámbito, Infobae, La Nación, El Cronista, Rava Bursátil, Investing.com, BCRA, and other public sources. Verify all figures independently before making investment decisions.