AFRICA EDITION · BUSINESS · ECONOMY · POLITICS · DEFENCE · MINING
What Matters Today
1 Terror Lekota dies at 77 — COPE founder and former Defence Minister Mosiuoa “Terror” Lekota died Wednesday morning at a Johannesburg hospital after a period of illness; a Robben Island prisoner alongside Mandela and ANC chairperson under Thabo Mbeki (2002–2007), he broke from the party in 2008 to co-found COPE over Jacob Zuma’s ascent; COPE leader Teboho Loate confirmed his passing; President Ramaphosa paid tribute; South Africa closes a chapter on the transition generation that believed the constitution was worth more than the liberation movement
2 PIC calls in turnaround specialists for R120bn Isibaya crisis — South Africa’s Public Investment Corporation, which manages over R2.5 trillion in assets primarily for the Government Employees Pension Fund, has appointed external turnaround specialists to stabilise its troubled Isibaya unlisted portfolio; 51.5% impairment ratio on gross loans of R69bn at end-June 2025; GEPF temporarily withdrew its unlisted investment mandate last year; new CEO Patrick Dlamini — himself a turnaround specialist from the DBSA — faces his most consequential test since appointment; over R35bn in impaired assets; the country’s pension savings base for public servants is directly exposed
3 Zimbabwe walks from $367m US health MOU — US denies mineral link — A US official today publicly disputed Zimbabwe’s claim that the collapsed $367m health MOU under Washington’s America First Global Health Strategy included demands for access to critical minerals; the official says the deal was “solely about health” and data-sharing was limited to anonymous, aggregated information identical to what Zimbabwe has shared since PEPFAR began in 2006; Harare’s Information Ministry PS Nick Mangwana counters that Zimbabwe was denied reciprocal access to US data and would gain nothing from sharing its biological resources; the US is now winding down programmes covering 1.2 million HIV patients currently on treatment
4 GAFCON convenes in Abuja to elect rival Anglican primate — announcement Thursday — Conservative Global Anglican Future Conference (GAFCON) bishops are meeting in Abuja through Friday to elect a “first among equals” primate to rival incoming Archbishop of Canterbury Sarah Mullally, the Church of England’s first female Archbishop; GAFCON’s Global Primates Council chairman is due to be announced Thursday (March 5); Oxford historian Diarmaid MacCulloch calls it unambiguously “a schism”; GAFCON draws its strongest support from African and Asian churches and claims to represent the majority of the world’s practising Anglicans; the Anglican Church of Southern Africa and Kenya’s first female bishop both support Mullally — African opinion is not monolithic
5 SANDF one-year deployment plan tabled in Parliament — Parliament’s policing committees received the formal SANDF deployment mission plan running March 2026 to March 31, 2027 across five provinces — Western Cape and Eastern Cape (gang violence), Gauteng, North West and Free State (illegal mining / zama zamas); no boots on ground yet; joint command setup and readiness training pending; Acting Police Minister Firoz Cachalia calls it “not a panacea”; 30,000 estimated illegal miners in 6,000 abandoned shafts represent $4bn+ in annual gold losses to criminal syndicates; critics warn the army lacks policing skills and the deployment itself signals institutional police failure
Market Snapshot
| INSTRUMENT | LEVEL | MOVE | NOTE |
|---|---|---|---|
| USD/ZAR | R16.10–16.17 | ▼ −1.3% | EM risk-off; Iran oil shock |
| USD/NGN | ₦1,370 | ▬ flat | Stable; Mar 31 bank recap deadline |
| USD/KES | 129.0 | ▬ flat | Feb CPI 4.3%; stable |
| Brent Crude | $79.80 | ▲ +9.0% | Hormuz disruption; $100+ scenario active |
| Gold | $5,354/oz | ▲ +1.4% | Safe-haven bid; SA miners benefit |
| Platinum | $2,300/oz | ▼ −0.6% | EV demand uncertainty weighs |
| Copper | $5.97/lb | ▼ −0.4% | Zambia/DRC export watch |
| SA 10yr Bond Yield | 8.12% | ▼ highest since Jan 23 | Rate hike now priced at Mar 26 MPC |
Conflict & Stability Tracker
CRITICAL
Ethiopia — Tigray War Risk Returns
Mass protests today in Mekelle, Shire and Endabaguna against federal electoral restructuring. Tigray Interim President Gen. Tadesse Werede warns dispute “will endanger not only Tigray but the whole of Ethiopia.” Federal army divisions remain positioned on the border since January clashes. Crisis Group risk rating: high.
CRITICAL
South Sudan — Peace Deal in Final Collapse
169 killed in Sunday’s Abiemnhom County attack; 1,000 displaced at UNMISS base. UN High Commissioner Türk warns of a “dangerous point.” Government blames White Army militia linked to Machar’s SPLA-IO. UN previously found leaders systematically dismantling the 2018 Revitalised Agreement. 280,000 newly displaced since December escalation.
TENSE
DRC — M23 Withdrawal, Mass Graves Surface
171+ bodies confirmed in Kiromoni and Kavimvira following M23 withdrawal from Uvira; victims killed on suspected FARDC links. Military blocking independent access. US sanctioned Rwandan Defence Forces and four senior officers for M23 support. 7M displaced; M23 holds Goma and Bukavu.
WATCHING
Libya — Migrant Deaths Mount Off Derna
Emergency teams recovering victims after a migrant boat capsized near Derna; Libyan Red Crescent has recovered 12 bodies; 20 migrants rescued including Sudanese, Somalis and Egyptians. Separate IOM data: 2026 Mediterranean death toll now at least 484; central route remains the world’s deadliest migration corridor.
Fast Take
SA FINANCE
SA retail bond push — Treasury DG Duncan Pieterse confirms plan to appoint private-sector partners to expand government bond retail distribution and compress yields; current R183m/year in retail bond sales to be significantly increased; partner to be in place by February 2027.
SA retail bond push — Treasury DG Duncan Pieterse confirms plan to appoint private-sector partners to expand government bond retail distribution and compress yields; current R183m/year in retail bond sales to be significantly increased; partner to be in place by February 2027.
WEST AFRICA
Mali Atlantic corridor — $800m Saint-Louis–Ambidédi waterway groundbreaking confirmed for April 2026; 900km OMVS project links landlocked Mali to Senegal’s coast; could cut logistics costs by 60%; involves Mali, Senegal, Mauritania and Guinea; strategic lifeline for the Alliance of Sahel States.
Mali Atlantic corridor — $800m Saint-Louis–Ambidédi waterway groundbreaking confirmed for April 2026; 900km OMVS project links landlocked Mali to Senegal’s coast; could cut logistics costs by 60%; involves Mali, Senegal, Mauritania and Guinea; strategic lifeline for the Alliance of Sahel States.
NIGERIA
Shea nut ban extended — Tinubu extends raw shea nut export ban by one year to Feb 25, 2027; all prior waivers cancelled; surplus must route through Nigerian Commodity Exchange; Nigeria holds ~40% of global supply but earns just 1% of the $6.5bn market; processed butter fetches 10–20x the raw nut price.
Shea nut ban extended — Tinubu extends raw shea nut export ban by one year to Feb 25, 2027; all prior waivers cancelled; surplus must route through Nigerian Commodity Exchange; Nigeria holds ~40% of global supply but earns just 1% of the $6.5bn market; processed butter fetches 10–20x the raw nut price.
NORTH AFRICA
Egypt PMI contracts again — S&P Global February reading 48.9, down from 49.8 in January; second consecutive month of contraction; fastest deterioration since September 2025; all five sub-components weakening; input costs at nine-month high driven by oil and metals; firms unwilling to pass costs on to customers.
Egypt PMI contracts again — S&P Global February reading 48.9, down from 49.8 in January; second consecutive month of contraction; fastest deterioration since September 2025; all five sub-components weakening; input costs at nine-month high driven by oil and metals; firms unwilling to pass costs on to customers.
ANC WATCH
Motsepe floated for ANC top job — online campaign backs billionaire and CAF chairman Patrice Motsepe (64) as successor to Ramaphosa ahead of the 2027 ANC elective conference; next general election 2029; coalition politics has fundamentally reset which profiles can credibly lead the party post-majority.
Motsepe floated for ANC top job — online campaign backs billionaire and CAF chairman Patrice Motsepe (64) as successor to Ramaphosa ahead of the 2027 ANC elective conference; next general election 2029; coalition politics has fundamentally reset which profiles can credibly lead the party post-majority.
Developments to Watch
1. PIC Isibaya rescue — can Dlamini deliver?
The PIC’s unlisted Isibaya Fund had gross loans of R69bn at June 2025, of which R35.5bn was impaired — a 51.5% impairment ratio Parliament was told last October. The GEPF temporarily withdrew its unlisted mandate. Now external turnaround specialists are being brought in alongside CEO Patrick Dlamini. The critical question: whether the portfolio’s distress is recoverable or whether write-offs will eventually exceed the state’s annual GEPF contribution, socialising the losses onto public-sector workers.
2. PIC CIO exits after misconduct probe
Chief Investment Officer Kabelo Rikhotso departed by mutual agreement on March 1 — five months after suspension following a whistleblower misconduct report — adding a second layer of institutional turbulence to the PIC at the exact moment the Isibaya rescue operation is being mobilised. Who manages the R2.5 trillion portfolio during this leadership gap matters enormously for pension fund members.
3. Zimbabwe HIV programmes wind down — 1.2m patients at risk
With Zimbabwe having walked away from the $367m US health MOU, the US Embassy has begun winding down programmes supporting 1.2 million HIV patients currently on treatment. A $85m PEPFAR initiative ends in April. Zimbabwe has committed to raising health spending to 15% of its budget and has introduced an AIDS Levy — but PEPFAR historically covered three-quarters of the HIV response. The gap is enormous and the timeline is immediate.
4. GAFCON primate announcement — Thursday is the date
GAFCON’s Global Primates Council will announce its elected chairman on Thursday (March 5) in Abuja — a rival to Archbishop Sarah Mullally, who is formally installed at Canterbury Cathedral on March 25. GAFCON claims to represent the majority of the world’s practising Anglicans; it draws heavily from Africa but African opinion is split (Southern Africa and Kenya have welcomed Mullally). The result reshapes the institutional architecture of the world’s third-largest Christian denomination.
5. Kenya-Ethiopia LAPSSET defence pact goes operational
Kenya Defence Forces and the Ethiopian National Defence Force formalised structured joint operations covering the Moyale-Marsabit-Turkana corridor and LAPSSET infrastructure protection. The $25bn+ Lamu Port-South Sudan-Ethiopia Transport Corridor is only commercially viable if it is militarily secure. The pact operationalises a September 2025 agreement and provides Kenya intelligence leverage at a moment when Addis Ababa is signalling war risk over Tigray.
6. Uganda flood alert — northern and eastern regions at risk
The Ugandan government has issued a high-level alert following the March-April-May 2026 seasonal forecast showing warmer-than-normal temperatures and above-average rainfall. Minister of Relief Hilary Onek identifies West Nile, Lango, Rwenzori and Bugisu as highest-risk zones for flash floods, landslides and lightning. This follows Museveni’s re-election confirmation by the courts; disaster preparedness now a front-line governance test for the new term.
Sovereign & Credit Pulse
| SOVEREIGN | RATING | SIGNAL | TODAY’S DRIVER |
|---|---|---|---|
| South Africa | BB−/Positive | ▼ Deteriorating | Oil shock erodes disinflation; 10yr yield 8.12%; PIC Isibaya adds fiscal exposure; SANDF deployment adds cost |
| Nigeria | B−/Positive | ▬ Neutral | Shea ban extension signals value-add push; Mar 31 bank recap deadline — 13 non-compliant |
| Egypt | B/Stable | ▼ Watching | PMI 48.9 in Feb — second monthly contraction; oil/metals cost surge squeezes margins |
| Zimbabwe | CCC+/Stable | ▼ Deteriorating | $367m US health MOU collapse; $85m PEPFAR programme ends April; 1.2m HIV patients exposed |
| Ethiopia | SD/Negative | ▼ High Risk | Tigray war risk elevated; Werede public war warning; bond restructuring stalled |
Power Players
SOUTH AFRICA
Mosiuoa “Terror” Lekota (d. March 4, 2026) — Anti-apartheid veteran, Robben Island prisoner, former Defence Minister and COPE co-founder closes the book on the transition generation; his core proposition — that constitutional principle outranks liberation movement loyalty — proved prophetic in an era of coalition politics.
SOUTH AFRICA
Patrick Dlamini, PIC CEO — Former DBSA chief who doubled that institution’s assets is now facing the most consequential test of his career: stabilising a R120bn portfolio with a 51.5% impairment ratio and a CIO vacancy, while the GEPF watches its pension exposure carefully.
ETHIOPIA
Lt. Gen. Tadesse Werede, Tigray Interim President — Today’s public warning that the federal electoral dispute “will endanger all of Ethiopia” is strategic signalling: Mekelle is telling Addis that the Pretoria Agreement cannot survive another unilateral federal imposition; his words carry military as well as political weight.
ZIMBABWE
Nick Mangwana, Information Ministry PS — The public face of Zimbabwe’s decision to exit the US health MOU negotiations; his framing — that Harare would “provide raw materials for scientific discovery without assurance the end products would reach our people” — has become the template for other African governments watching how to push back on the America First Global Health Strategy.
NIGERIA
Rwandan Archbishop Laurent Mbanda, GAFCON Primates Council Chair — The African face of the Anglican schism; his declaration that the Church of England chose “a leader who will further divide an already split Communion” set the tone for the Abuja meeting; the primate elected Thursday will likely be African, cementing the continent’s centrality to global Anglican conservatism.
Regulatory & Policy Watch
SA · PENSION GOVERNANCE
PIC appoints external turnaround panel for Isibaya. The immediate regulatory consequence is whether the GEPF reinstates its suspended unlisted investment mandate. Parliament’s Standing Committee on Finance is expected to seek a briefing. Treasury oversight of the PIC — which has no independent regulator — may tighten following consecutive scandals (VBS, Allied Mobile, Rikhotso misconduct probe).
NIGERIA · COMMODITIES
Raw shea nut export ban extended to February 25, 2027. All prior waivers cancelled immediately. Nigerian Commodity Exchange now the sole regulated channel for any surplus raw exports. Federal Ministry of Finance directed to open dedicated NESS Support Window for processors. Policy will be tracked against the $300m annual shea earnings target the government has set.
WEST AFRICA · INFRASTRUCTURE
OMVS confirms April 2026 groundbreaking for Mali-Senegal river corridor. The $800m+ Saint-Louis–Ambidédi project will be led by SOGENAV within a multilateral framework of Mali, Senegal, Mauritania and Guinea. Regulatory priority: securing a financing structure (no confirmed DFI lead yet), governance transparency for the OMVS operational framework, and seasonal dredging maintenance obligations across the 900km route.
ZIMBABWE · HEALTH POLICY
Zimbabwe to raise health spending to 15% of budget following MOU exit. The government has committed to an AIDS Levy as a domestic substitute for PEPFAR funding. Kenya’s High Court has separately frozen its own US health MOU implementation after a consumer rights challenge — signalling that legal and legislative scrutiny of the America First Global Health Strategy is spreading across the continent.
Calendar
| DATE | EVENT | SIGNIFICANCE |
|---|---|---|
| Mar 4, TODAY | GAFCON Abuja meeting continues (Day 2 of 4) | Anglican schism — primate election announcement Thursday March 5 |
| Mar 5 (Thu) | GAFCON announces new primate in Abuja | Formal rival to Archbishop of Canterbury named |
| Mar 25 | Archbishop Sarah Mullally installed at Canterbury Cathedral | First female Archbishop; schism becomes operational |
| Mar 26 | SARB MPC rate decision | Now most consequential SA policy event this month; rate hike priced in after oil shock |
| Mar 31 | Nigeria CBN bank recapitalisation deadline | 13 of 24 commercial banks non-compliant; forced mergers or licence downgrades expected |
| Apr 2026 | Mali-Senegal $800m river corridor groundbreaking | OMVS Saint-Louis–Ambidédi; first Atlantic access for landlocked Mali |
| Apr 2026 | $85m Zimbabwe PEPFAR programme ends | HIV treatment gap becomes acute without MOU replacement funding |
Bottom Line
Three crises of institutional confidence — and one remarkable act of courage — define March 4, 2026.
Terror Lekota’s death is easy to misread as a footnote. He built no lasting party and won no elections after COPE’s founding momentum faded. But the question he posed in 2008 — whether the constitution was worth more than loyalty to the liberation movement — turns out to have been exactly the right question for South African politics. In today’s coalition architecture, where the ANC requires partners and Ramaphosa governs without a majority, Lekota’s 2008 wager looks prescient. The transition generation whose political identity was forged in prison with Mandela is now gone. What follows is constructed rather than inherited.
The PIC Isibaya crisis is in its own category of severity. A 51.5% impairment ratio on R69bn in gross loans is not a portfolio problem — it is a governance failure of the first order, one that Parliament has been warning about for years. The arrival of turnaround specialists is the right step, but the simultaneous exit of the CIO after a misconduct probe leaves the institution running two crisis processes at once. For an organisation managing the retirement savings of South Africa’s entire public sector, that is an uncomfortable place to be.
Zimbabwe’s decision to walk away from the $367m US health MOU is being watched across every capital where the America First Global Health Strategy is being negotiated. Mangwana’s formulation — that Harare would give raw materials for scientific discovery with no guarantee of access to the resulting medicines — has given other governments a principled language for refusal. But the immediate consequence falls on 1.2 million people on HIV treatment programmes that begin winding down this month. Principle and survival are in direct tension, and survival is losing.
The GAFCON schism in Abuja is the largest institutional rupture in Christianity’s third-biggest tradition in living memory. Its African geography is not incidental. GAFCON claims to represent the majority of practising Anglicans, and most of them are on this continent. When the new primate is announced Thursday (March 5), the centre of global Anglicanism will have formally shifted south — though the map will show two centres, not one.