Africa Intelligence Brief — March 18, 2026

1 South Africa CPI falls to 3.0% in February — hits SARB’s new target; core eases to 3.0% (7-month low); fuel down 10.1% YoY; but this is the last clean pre-shock reading; Morgan Stanley says prolonged rate hold; SARB meets March 26

Statistics South Africa reported Wednesday that annual consumer price inflation fell to 3.0% in February from 3.5% in January, slightly below the 3.1% market consensus and exactly matching the SARB’s new policy target. The monthly CPI rose 0.4%.

The decline was driven by a 10.1% year-on-year drop in fuel prices and slower growth in food and non-alcoholic beverages (3.7% vs 4.4%). Core inflation excluding food, non-alcoholic beverages, fuel and energy eased to a seven-month low of 3.0% from 3.4% in January. A delay in medical scheme contribution adjustments also contributed to the softer reading.

However, this is the last clean pre-shock reading. The February data captures none of the Iran war’s oil impact. The Central Energy Fund shows petrol under-recovery at R3.52 per litre (~$0.21) and diesel at R6.00 (~$0.36), signalling a severe April pump price hike of up to R4 per litre (~$0.24). Analysts project CPI could accelerate to 5.0–5.8% by Q3 2026.

Morgan Stanley said South Africa faces a “prolonged rate hold” as surging oil prices push inflation higher. The SARB left its repo rate at 6.75% in January and meets again March 26. Some analysts are pricing a 25bp hike rather than a hold.

The rand traded at R16.63 per dollar on Wednesday morning, up 0.3%. Business Day reported that the easing in CPI is “not likely to sway the central bank towards a rate cut.” This is part of The Rio Times’ daily intelligence coverage of Africa for the Latin American financial community. The gap between today’s benign 3.0% print and the April shock that is coming frames the SARB’s dilemma: the data says ease, but the outlook says tighten.

2 Sassou Nguesso wins Congo-Brazzaville with 94.82% — reported turnout 84.65% contradicts empty polling stations; IMF warns Congo finances weakening; debt at 94.5% of GDP; final constitutional term sharpens succession question

Interior Minister Raymond Zephirin Mboulou announced on state television Tuesday that President Denis Sassou Nguesso won 94.82% of the vote, extending his 42-year rule for another five years. His closest challenger, retired customs inspector Mabio Mavoungou Zinga, won 1.48%.

Authorities reported turnout of 84.65% with 2.6 million ballots cast, but many polling stations in Brazzaville had short or empty lines. The internet remained shut since election day. Defeated candidates have five days to file challenges before the Constitutional Court validates results.

The IMF released a post-financing assessment the same day warning that Congo’s finances have weakened, with tightening credit, increasing debt repayments, and banks heavily exposed to sovereign debt. Public debt stands at 94.5% of GDP. Growth ticked up slightly to 2.4% in 2025 from 2.1% in 2024, constrained by weak public investment and energy supply disruptions.

This is constitutionally Sassou Nguesso’s final term, focusing attention on succession. His son Denis-Christel Sassou Nguesso was elected to the National Assembly. Sassou told AFP he would not remain “in power forever” but declined to name a successor. French and US prosecutors continue investigating assets held abroad by family members. For Latin American investors, the question remains whether $100+ oil revenues flow into development or patronage.

3 Afrimat workers strike for 7% wage increase as South African mining sector labour tensions rise — commodity boom meets household cost-of-living crisis; BHP appoints Brandon Craig as CEO with Americas focus, signalling capital shift

Afrimat, one of South Africa’s major mining and industrial minerals companies, faces a worker strike after employees demanded a 7% wage increase. Business Day reported the action on Wednesday as the top-trending story on the JSE.

The strike captures a fundamental tension in the South African mining sector: commodity prices at elevated levels — gold near $5,000 per ounce, ruthenium at record highs — are generating strong corporate profits while household energy and food costs squeeze worker purchasing power. The April fuel hike of up to R4 per litre (~$0.24) will intensify the pressure.

Separately, BHP appointed Brandon Craig as its new CEO with a mandate centred on the Americas. The appointment signals a strategic shift in capital allocation away from African and Asia-Pacific assets toward Western Hemisphere operations.

South Africa’s mining exploration investment fell for a seventh consecutive year, according to Bloomberg, even as other African jurisdictions — Ghana, Mali, Burkina Faso, Tanzania — attract growing capital. The combination of labour unrest, regulatory uncertainty, and declining exploration spend contrasts sharply with the sector’s headline profitability. As covered in yesterday’s Africa Intelligence Brief, Ghana’s Damang mine bid process and Burkina Faso’s production surge show where mining capital is moving on the continent.

4 DRC drone warfare hits record as FARDC targets Rubaya coltan mine — highest monthly air/drone strikes ever; mine produces 15% of global coltan; DRC-US minerals deal tested; Erik Prince’s Vectus PMC deployed; M23 spokesperson killed

ACLED’s March overview recorded the highest number of monthly air and drone strikes ever in the Democratic Republic of Congo as the Congolese military (FARDC) intensified aerial warfare against M23 in eastern DRC.

A FARDC drone strike killed M23 military spokesperson Willy Ngoma near Rubaya, Masisi territory — a critical mining area producing approximately 15% of the world’s coltan supply and generating at least $800,000 (~CDF 2.2 billion) in monthly revenue for M23. The FARDC deployed Chinese CH-4 and Turkish TAI Anka drones alongside fighter jets and attack helicopters.

The Congolese government promised Rubaya to the United States in a mineral cooperation deal signed February 5. The mine is now at the centre of active combat, testing whether the deal can deliver on its terms.

Erik Prince’s Vectus private military company was brought in to support taxation of mining revenue, adding a layer of private security to the resource conflict. M23 mounted counterattacks near the end of February forcing FARDC and allied Wazalendo militias to regroup. The critical minerals competition between the US and China in central Africa now intersects directly with an active war zone.

5 African leaders head to Washington minerals summit — Congo-Kinshasa, Kenya, Guinea attending; Congress moves to renew AGOA for just one year; Trump’s proposed remittance tax threatens Africa’s $100 billion financial lifeline

The Africa Report confirmed that leaders from Congo-Kinshasa, Kenya, and Guinea are expected at a Washington minerals meeting as the US deepens its critical minerals engagement with the continent. The summit follows the February DRC-US minerals deal and reflects Washington’s strategic competition with China for African resources.

Congress is moving to renew the African Growth and Opportunity Act (AGOA) for just one year, down from the typical multi-year extensions. Trump is demanding a say in the terms, introducing uncertainty for African exporters who rely on the preferential trade framework. African countries will pay nearly $95 billion to creditors in 2026.

The administration’s proposed remittance tax threatens a financial lifeline: remittances to sub-Saharan Africa exceeded $100 billion in recent years, dwarfing foreign aid and often exceeding FDI. A tax on these flows would directly reduce household income in countries from Nigeria to Kenya to Ghana.

The combination of minerals engagement, AGOA uncertainty, and remittance taxation signals a US-Africa relationship that is simultaneously deepening on strategic resources and tightening on trade and financial flows. For Latin American observers, the pattern mirrors Washington’s broader approach to emerging markets: extract strategic value while restricting economic access. As covered in yesterday’s brief, Africa’s structural vulnerability to external policy decisions — from Hormuz oil to Washington trade — remains the continent’s defining economic challenge.

SOUTH AFRICA The 3.0% CPI print is simultaneously the best and most misleading inflation number the SARB will receive this year. It matches the new 3% target perfectly — but it is a February reading that captures none of the Iran war’s impact. Fuel prices fell 10.1% year-on-year in the data; by April they will be rising at double-digit rates. The under-recovery of R3.52 per litre (~$0.21) on petrol and R6.00 (~$0.36) on diesel means the April adjustment will be among the largest in South African history. Morgan Stanley’s call for a “prolonged rate hold” is the base case, but Business Day is right that this print won’t sway the SARB toward a cut. The gap between the data and the outlook is the widest it has been since the 2022 energy crisis. The SARB’s March 26 decision will be made on March numbers it doesn’t yet have, guided by a global rate environment the FOMC is defining today.

POLITICS Sassou Nguesso’s 94.82% is a number that tells you about the electoral machinery, not about public sentiment. The reported 84.65% turnout contradicts what observers saw: empty polling stations across Brazzaville. The IMF’s post-financing assessment released the same day — warning of weakening finances, tightening credit, and heavy sovereign bank exposure — provides the economic counterpoint to the political theatre. This is constitutionally his final term, and the succession question will define Congo’s political economy for the next five years. His son’s election to the National Assembly and the absence of a named successor suggest a managed transition that may or may not follow the constitutional timeline.

MINING The Afrimat strike and BHP’s Americas-focused CEO appointment capture the two forces pulling South African mining in opposite directions. Workers see commodity profits that don’t reach their payslips while facing an April fuel and electricity cost shock. Capital sees a regulatory and labour environment that makes other jurisdictions more attractive. BHP’s appointment of Brandon Craig with an Americas mandate is the latest signal that global mining capital is being reallocated — and South Africa’s seventh consecutive year of declining exploration investment confirms the trend. Meanwhile, Ghana, Mali, Burkina Faso, and Tanzania are attracting the capital that South Africa is losing.

CONFLICT The DRC’s record drone warfare over the Rubaya coltan mine is the most consequential intersection of military conflict and critical minerals on the continent. The mine produces 15% of the world’s coltan — essential for smartphones, EVs, and defence electronics — and was promised to the United States in a February 5 minerals deal. It is now in an active combat zone where Chinese drones kill rebel leaders and Erik Prince’s private military company manages mining revenue. The DRC-US minerals deal’s viability depends on whether the FARDC can hold Rubaya, which depends on the same drone warfare that is generating record civilian and combatant casualties.

TRADE The Washington minerals summit, AGOA’s one-year renewal, and the proposed remittance tax describe a US-Africa relationship that is simultaneously deepening on strategic resources and tightening on economic access. African leaders attending the minerals meeting are being asked to open their geology to American companies while facing a trade preference renewal reduced from multi-year to one year and a tax that would directly reduce household income. The remittance tax is particularly significant: remittances to sub-Saharan Africa exceed $100 billion, dwarfing foreign aid. Taxing these flows would hit the most vulnerable households in Nigeria, Kenya, Ghana, and across the continent — the same households already squeezed by $100+ oil.

1 SARB MPC meeting — March 26 — the first formal rate decision under conflict conditions; February CPI at 3.0% argues for a cut but the oil shock argues against; Morgan Stanley expects prolonged hold; some analysts pricing 25bp hike; Governor Kganyago is redrafting risk scenarios; the April fuel adjustment will be the most politically sensitive domestic data point of Q2.

2 South Africa April fuel + electricity price adjustments — April 1 — petrol hike of up to R4 per litre (~$0.24) alongside NERSA’s 8.76% electricity tariff increase; the dual energy cost shock will push CPI from 3.0% toward 5.0–5.8% by Q3; the pace of pass-through to food and transport determines whether the SARB’s next move is a hold or a hike.

3 Congo-Brazzaville Constitutional Court validation — within 15 days — defeated candidates have 5 days to file challenges; the court has 15 days to examine them; validation confirms Sassou Nguesso’s final term; the succession question — son Denis-Christel or a party insider — becomes the central political narrative; French and US corruption investigations continue in the background.

4 DRC Rubaya mine control — military vs mineral deal viability — the FARDC’s drone campaign has weakened M23 positions near the mine, but rebel counterattacks continue; whether the DRC can establish stable control over Rubaya determines whether the February 5 minerals deal with Washington delivers; the coltan supply chain affects global electronics and EV production.

5 AGOA renewal and remittance tax — Congressional timeline — the one-year renewal introduces annual uncertainty for African exporters; Trump’s demand for influence over terms signals potential conditionality; the remittance tax, if implemented, would reduce financial flows that sustain millions of households across the continent.

6 FOMC March 17–18 — dot plot shapes African rate paths — the Fed meeting concluding today determines the global rate environment; a hawkish dot plot showing zero or one cut for 2026 would extend pressure on the rand, naira, and Kenyan shilling; the SARB, CBN, and CBK all calibrate their decisions partly on the Fed’s signal; Goldman’s first-cut-in-September forecast means African central banks face a prolonged higher-for-longer environment.

Risenga Maluleke — South Africa’s Statistician General released the February CPI at 3.0%, exactly at the SARB’s target, in what is the final clean pre-shock inflation reading; the data release is a baseline that will be dramatically revised upward by April as the oil shock feeds through; his team noted the contribution of delayed medical scheme adjustments, flagging a technical factor that may reverse in coming months.

Denis Sassou Nguesso — the 82-year-old Congolese president secured his fifth consecutive term with 94.82% in an election marked by internet blackout, opposition boycott, and questioned turnout; told AFP he would not stay “in power forever” but declined to name a successor; his son’s parliamentary election and the constitutional bar on further terms make the next five years about succession management in a $100+ oil environment where French and US prosecutors continue investigating family assets.

Brandon Craig — BHP’s incoming CEO arrives with an Americas-focused mandate, signalling a strategic reorientation of the world’s largest mining company away from African and Asia-Pacific assets; for South Africa’s mining sector, the appointment compounds the message sent by seven consecutive years of declining exploration investment — global capital is being reallocated, and the continent’s largest mining economy is losing share.

Lesetja Kganyago — the SARB Governor must navigate the widest gap between current data and forward risk in recent memory; February CPI at 3.0% gives no reason to tighten, but the April fuel shock will push inflation toward 5%+; his decision on March 26 — hold, hike, or signal — will be made on incomplete information while the FOMC defines the global rate environment tonight.

Willy Ngoma (killed) — the M23 military spokesperson’s death in a FARDC drone strike near Rubaya illustrates the escalation of aerial warfare over critical mineral deposits; his killing weakens M23’s communications capacity but the rebel group mounted counterattacks afterward, demonstrating that the conflict’s resolution will not come through targeted strikes alone; the Rubaya mine’s strategic value — to M23, to Kinshasa, and to Washington — ensures the fighting will continue.

1 SARB MPC — March 26 — the decision arrives one week after the FOMC and ECB; February CPI at 3.0% provides cover for a hold but the April fuel shock removes the option of a cut; Morgan Stanley forecasts a prolonged hold; if the FOMC dot plot tonight shows zero cuts for 2026, the SARB’s hand is further constrained by the need to protect the rand differential.

2 AGOA one-year renewal — Congressional uncertainty — the reduction from multi-year to one-year extension introduces annual uncertainty for African exporters; Trump’s demand for influence over terms could add conditionality that previous renewals lacked; African countries that rely on AGOA for textile, automotive, and agricultural exports face planning uncertainty that deters long-term investment.

3 DRC-US minerals cooperation — implementation amid conflict — the February 5 deal’s implementation depends on military control of mining areas including Rubaya; the Washington minerals summit this week will test whether diplomatic engagement can produce commercial results while the FARDC is conducting record-level drone warfare in the same territories the deal covers.

4 NERSA electricity tariff increase — 8.76% from April 1 — arriving alongside the fuel price hike, the electricity increase compounds inflationary pressure on South African households and businesses; over 300 days without load shedding has improved generation reliability but the tariff increase reflects the cost of maintaining that capacity.

South Africa’s 3.0% CPI is a number from a world that no longer exists. February captured falling fuel prices, easing food inflation, and delayed medical scheme adjustments. March will capture $100+ oil, a weakening rand, and the beginning of energy cost pass-through to every sector of the economy.

The SARB faces the widest gap between current data and forward risk since the 2022 crisis. Morgan Stanley’s “prolonged hold” call is the market’s way of saying: don’t cut, don’t hike, wait for the shock to arrive and then react. Governor Kganyago’s March 26 decision will be the most scrutinised since the pandemic.

Sassou Nguesso’s 94.82% win is constitutionally his last term. The IMF warning about weakening finances released the same day as the results — tightening credit, rising debt, sovereign bank exposure — frames the succession question in economic terms. With oil above $100, the regime’s revenue position is strong. The question is whether the next five years produce institutional transition or another constitutional amendment.

The DRC’s record drone warfare over the Rubaya coltan mine has turned a critical minerals deal into a military operation. Washington wants the coltan. Kinshasa wants territorial control. M23 wants revenue. Erik Prince wants a contract. Chinese and Turkish drones are the instruments. The mine produces 15% of the world’s coltan supply, and its control is being decided by aerial bombardment.

The Afrimat strike is a microcosm of the continent’s commodity paradox. Gold near $5,000, platinum group metals at elevated levels, and mining companies reporting record profits — but workers cannot keep pace with fuel and food costs that the same commodity boom is driving through the economy.

BHP’s Americas-focused CEO appointment is the kind of strategic signal that accumulates over time. South Africa’s mining sector is not collapsing — the JSE is up 39% year-on-year. But capital allocation decisions made in London, Melbourne, and Toronto are gradually shifting new investment elsewhere on the continent and beyond.

The Washington minerals summit, AGOA’s one-year renewal, and the proposed remittance tax describe a US-Africa relationship that extracts strategic value while restricting economic access. This is part of The Rio Times’ daily intelligence coverage of Africa for the Latin American financial community.

African leaders attending the minerals meeting are negotiating from a position of geological strength and institutional weakness. The continent has the resources the world needs. The question — as always — is whether it can capture the value.