The Big Three
YPF’s ADR closed at $46.12 — its highest since January 2025 — with a market cap now at $19 billion. The stock nearly matched its pre-nationalization high of $47.43 as the US appeals court ruling continues to lift the overhang. Vista Energy rose 3.2%, Pampa 3.5%, and Central Puerto 4.5%.
The BCRA announced a reduction in reserve requirements (encajes), easing monetary conditions as the dollar remains well within the FX band at ARS 1,395 — just 15.7% from the ceiling at ARS 1,654. Adcap’s Geretto said the move signals confidence that “the peace in the FX market will continue for months with the agro liquidation.”
The equity-bond divergence deepened again: the Merval surged +2.57% to 2,865,753 while bonds fell −0.4% and the country risk hit a four-month high. The spread between equity optimism and fixed-income caution is now the widest since the war began.
01 Market Snapshot
| Indicator | Value | Change |
| Merval Close | 2,865,753 | +2.57% |
| Merval Weekly | — | +2.5% prior week |
| YPF ADR | $46.12 | +2.1% (Jan 2025 high) |
| Country Risk (EMBI) | ~620 bps | 4-month high |
| Dollar Mayorista | ARS 1,395 | slight rise |
| Brent Crude (May) | $114.60 | +1.8% |
| Treasury Licitación | USD 131M | 100% adjudicated |
| S&P 500 | 6,343.72 | −0.39% |
02 Equities
Merval Argentina today surged +2.57% to 2,865,753, its strongest close since mid-March, led by the energy sector’s continued momentum off the YPF court ruling. YPF’s ADR at $46.12 gives it a market cap of $19 billion and puts it within striking distance of the pre-nationalization all-time high. This is part of The Rio Times’ daily coverage of Argentina’s stock market and Latin American financial markets.
Rava Bursátil attributed the rally to “energy resilience” and the court ruling that temporarily exempts Argentina from the $16.1 billion indemnification for YPF’s 2012 expropriation. Facimex noted the ruling hinged on “the interpretation of the hierarchy between Argentine law and corporate statutes” of YPF.
However, Iran’s rejection of US peace proposals as “unrealistic, illogical, and excessive” kept bonds under pressure. Globales fell −0.4% on average and the country risk climbed to a four-month high. The divergence between equities (energy bull) and bonds (global bear) has reached its widest point since the war began.
03 Currency & Monetary Policy
The dollar mayorista edged up to ARS 1,395, still well within the BCRA’s FX band (ceiling ARS 1,654). The BCRA announced it would not renew a temporary increase in reserve requirements, effectively cutting encajes and easing monetary conditions. Adcap’s Roberto Geretto said the “peace in the FX market” plus the approaching soybean harvest “allows the BCRA to relax monetary conditions” — a bullish signal for credit growth and activity.
The Treasury captured USD 131 million in Monday’s second-round licitación — AO27 at 5.00% TNA and the new AO28 at 8.52% TNA. Puente’s Ritondale said the government “closes a month of strong activity in the domestic dollar market” and is building a local-law yield curve without international market access.
04 Technical Analysis — S&P Merval Daily
The index opened at 2,793,846 — exactly at Friday’s close — and rallied throughout the session to a high of 2,887,597 before closing at 2,865,753. The marubozu-like candle (open equals session low, no lower shadow) is a textbook bullish continuation pattern signaling conviction.
The MACD histogram at 30,800 is positive and expanding rapidly. RSI at 57.89 has crossed above 50 decisively — the strongest reading since mid-February. The slow RSI at 47.81 is lagging but rising. The next test is the 2,906,542 resistance; a break would target the January highs.
05 Key Levels
| Level | Merval |
| Resistance 2 | 2,906,542 |
| Resistance 1 | 2,863,275 |
| Current Close | 2,865,753 |
| Support 1 | 2,762,584 |
| Support 2 | 2,724,532 |
| Support 3 | 2,525,549 |
06 Global Context
Wall Street was mixed — Dow +0.11%, S&P 500 −0.39% (third straight loss), Nasdaq −0.73%. WTI settled above $100 for the first time since 2022. Brent at $114.60. Iran rejected US proposals, calling them “unrealistic.” The VIX topped 30, signaling elevated fear despite the Dow’s marginal gain.
07 Looking Ahead
The YPF story is becoming the defining narrative of Q1 for Argentine equities. The court ruling removes a decade-old liability, and with WTI above $100, YPF’s Vaca Muerta production is generating record dollar revenues. April’s soybean harvest should further boost BCRA reserves and support the peso’s stability within the band.
The WSJ report that Trump is willing to end hostilities even if Hormuz stays shut is the overnight wildcard. If oil corrects, the energy-driven Merval rally could pause — but the encaje cut and fiscal trajectory provide domestic support. The bond market’s four-month high in country risk is the canary to watch.
08 Verdict
Monday’s +2.57% marubozu candle is the most bullish session since the war began. RSI above 57, expanding MACD, YPF nearing its all-time ADR high, and the BCRA easing monetary conditions all point to a market with genuine momentum. The energy sector is carrying the index single-handedly.
Bias: Bullish on equities, cautious on bonds. The Merval has broken out of its March range and is testing resistance at 2,863,000. A close above 2,906,542 would target the January highs. However, the country risk at a four-month high and bonds falling mean this is a split market — equity bulls must respect the fixed-income warning.