Brazil’s pension system is under pressure, with experts predicting a dire financial shortfall by 2024.
A recent report from the National Treasury projects a deficit of R$326.2 billion ($63.3 billion), escalating to R$25.5 trillion ($4.95 trillion) by 2100 if no reforms are implemented.
This alarming trend is driven by increasing informality, a sluggish formal job market, and an aging population.
Since 2016, unregistered workers have surged by 26.7%, totaling 13.5 million last year. This rise in gig economy jobs contributes to the pension strain.
Meanwhile, formal employment grew merely 3% from 2022 to 2023, a slowdown from the previous year’s 6.9% increase.
The demographic has also expanded significantly, with those aged 65 and over increasing from 14.1 million in 2010 to 22.2 million in 2022.
This group now makes up 10.9% of the population, further heightening pension demands as contributions dwindle.
Economist Ecio Costa suggests attracting self-employed and informal workers to bolster the system.
He proposes reforms modeled on private pensions with funded schemes, noting such structures have enhanced sustainability in other nations.
Costa also points out that Brazil’s declining birthrate impacts the pension system’s stability, foreseeing inevitable insolvency without changes.
Minister Carlos Lupi, however, initially dismissed the need for reform, asserting the system was financially sound.
Brazil’s Looming Pension Shortfall Calls for Action
Still, his office has not responded to inquiries about the projections or planned reforms.
Municipalities face their own challenges, with pension debts totaling R$43.1 billion ($8.37 billion).
The federal government’s record revenue of R$190.6 billion ($37 billion) in March offers some relief, yet it’s not enough to close the widening gap.
This financial setting, with 7.8% unemployment and high government income, underscores the urgent need for a major overhaul.
Such changes are imperative to sustain Brazil’s pension framework.
Download the report here.