After the conservative-religious President Jair Bolsonaro overtook the favored Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva in the most populous state of São Paulo a few days ago, the same is happening in Rio de Janeiro, the second most populous state in Brazil.
According to a Genial/Quaest poll released Thursday (15), President Jair Bolsonaro (PL, right) is ahead in electoral intentions in Rio de Janeiro.
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Bolsonaro’s lead changed by one percentage point from the last poll and technically remains tied with former President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva (PT, left).
The president garnered 40% of the electoral vote, while Lula came in at 36%.
Former Ceará governor Ciro Gomes (PDT) is in third place with 8% of the electoral vote. He is followed by Simone Tebet (MDB) with 5%.
The other candidates did not score in the poll.
Those who say they are undecided make up 4%. Another 6% say they will vote “blank” or “void” or do not intend to vote.
Here are the voting intentions for the first round of voting in Rio de Janeiro according to Genial/Quaest:
Jair Bolsonaro (PL) – 40% (he had 39% in the last poll);
Lula (PT) – 36% (he had 39%);
Ciro Gomes (PDT) – 8% (he had 6%);
Simone Tebet (MDB) – 5% (she had 2%);
Soraya Thronicke (UB) – 1% (she had 0%);
Vera Lúcia (PSTU) – 0%;
Felipe D’Ávila (Novo) – 0%;
Eymael (DC) – 0%;
Sofia Manzano (PCB) – 0%;
Leonardo Péricles (UP) – 0%;
Undecided – 4%;
Blank/Null and will not vote – 9%.
Among women, Lula da Silva has a lead over Bolsonaro: 39% versus 33%. Among men, the scenario is the opposite. Bolsonaro is ahead: 48% vs. 32%.
There is a technical balance among the youngest, those between 16 and 30 years old.
Bolsonaro is ahead with 38% (previously 30%) over Lula da Silva with 35% (previously 46%).
The same is true for those over 60.
Among this public, the PT candidate scored 39% compared to 37% in the state. In the 31-50 age group, Bolsonaro leads with 44%, while Lula scores 33%.
Also, according to the Genial/Quaest poll, the poorest with family incomes of up to two minimum wages are more likely to vote for Lula da Silva, at 41% versus 34% for Bolsonaro.
Among families with incomes of 2 to 5 minimum wages, the president leads with 42% and Lula da Silva with 33%.
The scenario repeats itself in families with incomes of more than five minimum wages. Bolsonaro received 44% and Lula 32%.
The president has more votes in the Baixada Fluminense (41% Bolsonaro versus 36% Lula da Silva) and in the interior (48% Bolsonaro versus 26% Lula da Silva).
Lula da Silva appears to be in the lead in the capital, with 43% of the vote for him and 33% for his opponent.