RIO DE JANEIRO, BRAZIL – President Jair Bolsonaro need not worry about the CPI (investigative committee) set up in the Senate to investigate the federal government’s
handling of the Covid-19 pandemic that has killed over 400,000 people and
infected more than 14.5 million Brazilians.
There are several reasons why the ex-Army captain has nothing to fear, although his allies are in the minority in the committee and his opponents control the main posts of chairman, vice-chairman, and rapporteur: Omar Aziz (MDB-AM), Randolfe Rodrigues (Rede-AP), and Renan Calheiros (MDB-AL), respectively.
According to MCM Consultants, in a report sent to clients on Friday, April 30, there are seven reasons that lead the consultancy to believe that the Covid-19 CPI damage may be minimal for Bolsonaro.
1. No atmosphere for impeachment
The consultancy is adamant that the committee does not threaten the president’s mandate. “In our opinion, in the first place, the CPI will not generate favorable conditions to Bolsonaro’s impeachment,” it says.
2. Resilient popularity
Another argument is that, despite all of the past year’s economic and health issues, the ex-captain’s popularity “has not plummeted to levels conducive to impeachment and it is unlikely that this will occur in the coming months, as the worst moment of the pandemic may have passed.”
3. Economic boost
Furthermore, as mass vaccination progresses and non-essential activities are reopened, the economy is likely to see “some improvement”. Meanwhile, the most vulnerable population is again receiving emergency aid, albeit a lower amount.
4. Deal with the Centrão voting bloc
To the joy of some and dismay of others, Bolsonaro swelled the list of politicians who were elected on the promise of fighting “old politics” cronyism, but now end up in the arms of the Centrão. MCM recalls that the president has the full support of two leaders of this influential parliamentary bloc – Piauí Senator Ciro Nogueira, national president of PP, and Arthur Lira (PP-AL), president of the Chamber.
5. Tight deadline
Another point in Bolsonaro’s favor is the CPI’s work schedule, which should extend until the second half of the year. “Under normal circumstances, it will be late to start an impeachment process – virtually on the eve of the start of the election year,” explains the consultancy.
6. Aras is ours
Even if the document produced by the CPI is strong enough to justify a motion for impeachment, another important piece of the political chess plays on Bolsonaro’s side: it must first be submitted to the Prosecutor General of the Republic, Augusto Aras, who does not conceal his desire to please the man who can guarantee him a seat on the Federal Supreme Court (STF). “Aras doesn’t seem very interested in clashing with the president,” summarizes MCM.
7. Open election
All this does not mean that the Covid CPI will be a walk in the park. “The CPI will probably be a constant source of attrition for the government and for Bolsonaro,” says MCM. Even if an impeachment is all but ruled out by the consultancy, the impact of the committee on the 2022 election remains a mystery.
“By the presidential election, perhaps the CPI’s impact will have dissipated,” MCM muses. “However, if Bolsonaro’s term in office is unlikely to be affected by the CPI, the same can’t be said with certainty with respect to his image and his chances of reelection.”
Source: Moneytimes