Milei is ahead in a potential second-round vote in Argentina’s presidential election

According to a survey by Opinaia Analytics, Javier Milei is ahead in a potential second-round vote in Argentina’s presidential election against Patricia Bullrich and Sergio Massa.

Milei leads the polls for the first round set for October 22, but the election is likely to be determined in a second round on November 19.

In Argentina, to win in the first round, a candidate needs:

• At least 45% of the valid votes or
• At least 40% of the votes with a 10-point lead over the second-place candidate.

The survey examined three scenarios featuring the top candidates in the first-round polls: Milei, Bullrich, and Massa. Here are the findings.

Milei vs. Massa:

• Milei: 49%
• Massa: 30%
• Undecided: 8%
• White votes: 8%
• Would not vote: 5%

Milei vs. Bullrich:

• Milei: 39%
• Bullrich: 31%
• Undecided: 7%
• White votes: 14%
• Would not vote: 9%

Bullrich vs. Massa:

• Bullrich: 44%
• Massa: 32%
• Undecided: 7%
• White votes: 10%
• Would not vote: 7%

Opinaia Analytics interviewed 2,000 individuals from August 15 to 23. The margin of error is plus or minus 2.2 percentage points.

Javier Milei, 52, has a background in economics and led the primary elections on August 13, 2023, with 30.4% of the votes.

He leans right politically, advocating for economic liberalism.

Milei aims to close Argentina’s Central Bank, replace the peso with the U.S. dollar, and advocate for minimal state intervention.

He runs for the presidency under the “La Libertad Avanza” coalition and identifies as an anarcho-capitalist and libertarian.

Milei plans to cut public spending drastically and holds controversial views on global warming and organ sales.