In 2024, Latin America proves resilient amid global economic deceleration shares Citigroup’s chief economist, Ernesto Revilla, in an optimistic yet cautious report.
He highlights Latin America’s strategy to overcome hurdles like the U.S.’s high interest rates and China’s economic slowdown.
The region expects slight drops in soy and oil prices but sees rising copper prices, reflecting its diverse economic activities.
This period, Revilla notes, brings an extraordinary economic cycle that may surprise.
For 2024, forecasts suggest a “soft landing” with stronger-than-expected economies, despite slower growth, easing inflation, and reduced interest rates.
However, risks include a potential U.S.-triggered recession affecting Latin America.
The global economy is projected to grow by 2.1% in 2024, with Latin America’s growth estimated at 1.4%, expecting to bounce back to over 2% growth later.
The Dominican Republic leads with a 4.4% growth rate, followed by Costa Rica and Panama at 2.4%.
Inflation is trending downward in Latin America, setting the stage for further interest rate cuts.
The U.S. is also expected to reduce its rates in the latter half of 2024, positively affecting emerging markets.
Despite political instability in countries like Peru and Colombia, Latin America’s economic base remains strong, supporting currency stability.
Citigroup predicts the U.S. Federal Reserve will make five rate cuts in 2024, totaling a 125 basis point reduction.
Latin America’s ability to sustain growth and stability
By the end of 2024, Brazil, Colombia, and Mexico are expected to maintain higher interest rates at 10% and 8.5%, respectively.
The highest inflation rates are anticipated in the Dominican Republic at 4.5%, Colombia at 4.4%, and Mexico at 4.3%.
Currency exchange forecasts for 2024 and 2025 show varied rates across Latin America, highlighting a complex economic landscape influenced by both global and regional factors.
This summary underscores Latin America’s ability to sustain growth and stability amidst external challenges.