Victor Faverin reports hEDGEpoint Global Markets’ updated soybean harvest forecast, influenced by December’s challenging weather in Brazil.
The new prediction shows a decrease to 153.4 million tons for the 2023–24 season, down from the initial 160.1 million tons.
Pedro Schicchi, hEDGEpoint’s analyst, highlights the vulnerability of soybeans during their critical reproductive stages.
Although tough against early adverse conditions, they require sufficient water and cooler temperatures for optimal growth.
The high temperatures and low rainfall in December were not conducive to soybean growth.
But weather improvements in late December and January, with cooler conditions and increased rainfall, offered some relief.
Some regions might not recover due to the early damage, while others still have a chance to improve yields, possibly curbing the decline in national production.
hEDGEpoint also factored in the Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) in their analysis.
This index, indicating vegetation health, suggests lower yields in key areas like Mato Grosso, Goiás, Minas Gerais, and Matopiba, as they show lower NDVI levels than last year.
However, the average NDVI across most Brazilian states aligns with the 20-year mean, suggesting a more nuanced situation.
The firm notes that past crop failures in Rio Grande do Sul, marked by low NDVI levels, underline the index’s significance in predicting yields.
While acknowledging the valid reasons for adjusting crop estimates, hEDGEpoint cautions against overly negative projections.
The advisory emphasizes the importance of adopting a balanced approach when interpreting these revised figures.