The Israel-Hamas conflict has lasted ten days. Despite global unease, Brazil’s Ibovespa stock index reports modest gains.
On October 6, the index stood at 114,170 points. By October 17, it reached 115,908 points, a 1.52% rise.
A Santander Bank report reveals several reasons for this resilience. Initially, investors around the world were risk-averse.
Now, they are taking more risks, despite ongoing geopolitical issues.
In the first conflict week, Ibovespa climbed 1.39%. Market analysts point to favorable global prices and Brazil’s October 12 national holiday as contributors.
Additionally, Brazil’s long-term interest rates have dropped more than its short-term rates.
Before this uptrend, the stock market faced turmoil due to rising U.S. interest rates. These rates have since stabilized, positively impacting Brazil’s market.
Commodity prices also play a role. Oil and iron ore prices are up, boosting companies like Petrobras and Vale.
Yet, analysts warn that a conflict escalation could send oil prices soaring, which would negatively affect the stock market.
Long-standing Middle East tensions are not new and have a limited impact on current stock prices, according to experts.
Local issues like fiscal policy have been pressuring Ibovespa for months.
If the conflict escalates, we can expect a market drop. Worst-case projections even suggest a potential $1 billion global GDP loss.
Background
The Israel-Hamas conflict isn’t the first to stir global markets. Since Israel’s establishment in 1948, the region has seen multiple wars.
These conflicts often involve other Arab nations, adding to global unrest.
However, market experts say these long-term tensions are already priced into risk assets, including Ibovespa.
In Brazil, the stock market has faced its own challenges. Uncertainties surrounding fiscal policy and tax reform have been pressuring the index.
Historically, the Ibovespa has also been sensitive to global economic changes.
Therefore, an escalation in the Middle East could become another factor that influences its performance.