The party that had the biggest losses in the 2022 elections was the PSDB.
The acronym gave up on launching a candidate to the Presidential Palace to focus its energy on the states and Congress.
It failed in both and should reach its smallest size since 1990, the first general election contested by the Toucans.
In 1990, the party elected one governor, Ciro Gomes, in Ceará. Also, 38 federal deputies and one senator were elected from the party.
On Sunday’s election (October 2), 18 federal deputies were elected in the federation with the Cidadania party and no senator.
Four candidates for governor went to the runoff, all as the second-most voted. The PSDB runs in Rio Grande do Sul, Pernambuco, Paraíba, and Mato Grosso do Sul.
Currently, PSDB governs São Paulo, Rio Grande do Sul, and Mato Grosso do Sul.
The sum of PSDB and Citizenship managed the election of 37 federal deputies in 2018. It lost 19 in 2022. The PSB, which had the 2nd worst performance, lost 18, going from 32 to 14.
Individualizing the federation parties, PSDB went from 29 to 13 federal deputies. The Citizenship, from 8 to 5.
STATES
The PSDB will run in the runoff in four states. The most important one is Rio Grande do Sul, Brazil’s fourth-richest and sixth-most populated state.
The former governor Eduardo Leite (PSDB), 37 years old, is a candidate for atypical reelection. He gave up the governor post in April when he was still trying to make his presidential candidacy viable.
His vice governor took over. His presidential candidacy didn’t work out, and he is running again in the state for governor. If he wins the election, he will be the natural leader of the PSDB.
He led all the polls, but his vote was lower than expected and almost left him out of the runoff. He had only 2,441 more votes than Edegar Pretto (Workers’ Pary – PT). Here are the numbers for the 1st round in Rio Grande do Sul:
- Onyx Lorenzoni (Liberal Party – PL) – 37.5%;
- Eduardo Leite (PSDB) – 26.81%;
- Edegar Pretto (PT) – 26.77%.
Former President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva (PT), who is running in the second round, is nodding to the Toucan.
The most natural thing is for the PT votes to be inherited by Leite since the PT members face Jair Bolsonaro (PL), Onyx’s godfather, in the second round.
Even so, the distance of more than ten percentage points to Bolsonaro may make the task difficult.
The situation is reminiscent of the reelection of Mário Covas (PSDB) to the São Paulo state government in 1998.
That year, he got 74,436 votes ahead of Marta Suplicy, a member of the Workers’ Party (PT), and fought against Paulo Maluf in the second round.
The PT supported Covas, who won the election.
In Pernambuco and Mato Grosso do Sul, there are high chances of an upset for the PSDB candidates – considering the pattern of electoral disputes since 1990.
The 43-year-old former mayor of Caruaru, Raquel Lyra (PSDB), will contest the runoff against Marília Arraes (Solidariedade). Here are the numbers for the 1st round:
- Marra Arraes (Solidariedade) – 23.97%;
- Raquel Lyra (PSDB) – 20.58%;
- Anderson Ferreira (PL) – 18.15%;
- Danilo Cabral (PSB) – 18.06%.
It is natural, in this case, that Danilo Cabral supports Raquel. Marília, from the PT, left the party because they formally endorsed Danilo, who was trying to keep the party in power.
The PSB has governed Pernambuco since 2007. She then launched herself as a candidate for the dwarf Solidariedade.
There is little distance between the two candidates, so there is little favoritism.
Raquel experienced a tragedy on election day. Her husband, businessman Fernando Lucena, died after a sudden illness on Sunday (October 2). She did not go to vote.
In Mato Grosso do Sul, the former infrastructure secretary Eduardo Riedel (PSDB), 53, was launched by governor Reinaldo Azambuja (PSDB).
He finished 2nd, with 22,294 votes less than Capitão Contar (PRTB), supported by Bolsonaro. Here are the numbers:
- Capitão Contar (PRTB) – 26.71%;
- Eduardo Riedel (PSDB) – 25.16%.
In Paraíba, federal deputy Pedro Cunha Lima (PSB), 34, went to the 2nd round against the current governor, João Azevedo (PSDB). Here are the numbers for the 1st round:
João Azevedo (PSB) – 39 65%;
Pedro Cunha Lima (PSDB) – 23.90%.
Of the 108 elections that have gone to a new round in the states to date, 37 have ended with a difference of 0.1 to 5 points between the 1st and 2nd place finishers.
Historically, the probability of an upset in these cases is 45.9% (17 records in this specific distance range).
When the difference is greater, from 5 to 10 points, there were nine times in which the 2nd place finisher in the 1st round ended up winning the runoff – out of 30 elections in these conditions of difference.
In cases with a margin of more than 10 points, only five turnovers in 41 contests were registered (12.2% of the time).
DEHYDRATION
The 2022 results are a relevant defeat for a party that, from 1994 to 2014, polarized with the PT the command of the country and reached the election of 8 governors in 2010.
The taste becomes even acrider when the result of São Paulo, where the PSDB was hegemonic for 28 years, enters the list.
The country’s richest and most populous state will have a new command starting in 2023.
The PSDB voted internally for the presidential candidacy of João Doria (São Paulo) and Eduardo Leite (Rio Grande do Sul).
The São Paulo politician won but did not become a candidate after all.
To channel resources for state and congressional elections, the party supported Senator Simone Tebet (MDB) and indicated her vice-president, Mara Gabrilli.
The slate got 4.16% of the valid votes, less than the former Tucano Geraldo Alckmin in 2018, 4.76%.
An addendum: unlike the PSDB, the MDB expanded its bench from 34 to 42 elected deputies.
If in 2018, the PSDB ended the election governing 45,257,772 voters, this year, in the most favorable projection of victory in the four states, it will govern 20,699,761, less than half.
But that number should be lower since neither candidate in the runoff has wide favoritism.
FUTURE
There will inevitably be a restructuring in the party. And this will depend on the results of the second round.
If elected governor, Eduardo Leite will be the main party leader.
All the party’s gubernatorial candidates are of the new generation, born after the military dictatorship. The oldest is Riedel, 53 years old.
With good political traffic, Leite should bring important figures in the party, such as the current president, Bruno Araújo, and federal deputy Aécio Neves, to his side.
And to this, add this new generation, of which he will be the great showcase in case of victory.
If Leite is not elected, Aécio and his group should take over the party.
Before the elections, there were talks about the fusion of PSDB and Cidadania with MDB. We can go along.
With information from Poder360