RIO DE JANEIRO, BRAZIL – Henrique Capriles’ return to the forefront of Venezuelan politics, with his gamble to contest the December 6th elections, not only added to chronic opposition divergences. It also further compromises the future of Juan Guaidó, whom dozens of countries still recognize as Venezuela’s interim president, a position without real power in the country, though with influence, particularly in the international community.
His difficulty in offering an alternative to electoral participation and the failure of his strategy to remove Maduro from power has lent voice to a choir of critics. Moreover, most Venezuelans have lost hope in the outcome of their efforts.
Guaidó, 37, was virtually unknown in January 2019, when he was named president of the National Assembly and took office as interim president of Venezuela, a position recognized by some 60 countries, including the United States and much of the European Union. None of these countries has given up considering him an acting president yet, but reality points in another direction.
After almost two years, Guaidó, who began the year receiving an honor from the US Congress, has seen his strategy bear hardly any domestic fruit and the creation of a parallel structure, particularly abroad. “Internet Government,” Capriles said, has raised many doubts in Venezuela. The failed paramilitary raid in May, in which he found himself involved, was another blow to Guaidó that Capriles helped bring down. Although he remains a reference, Guaidó’s credibility has collapsed.
Everything suggests that Guaidó is racing against the clock on the field of dispute: the potential participation of Capriles in the parliamentary elections – favorably regarded among much of European diplomacy – could further weaken his position in the international context, his greatest asset today. For now, Guaidó still enjoys Washington’s unreserved support.
Political scientist and writer Colette Capriles believes that the end of Guaidó’s cycle is drawing closer, and despite concentrating a large part of the opposition, his alliances are compromised. “This process could break the unanimity of the international community around Guaidó. In dividing the opposition, Maduro also divides the foreign allies on whom Guaidó has become very dependent, particularly the US.”
“The gap that should open, therefore,” says the political scientist, “is to recalculate, as GPS devices do. A deferral of elections, as several players have put it, would be a space in which to trace the horizon of a negotiated exit [by Maduro] like the one that was being attempted with the help of Norway.” The prospect of finding a negotiated end was mentioned this week by EU High Commissioner Josep Borrell.
The fight against Chavismo has meant the sacrifice of many leaders over the past few years. For political scientist Luis Salamanca, Guaidó is experiencing the natural deterioration of his own strength. “When you fail to achieve the knockout, you have to keep boxing to weaken your opponent,” he says.
“There’s a misinterpretation in thinking that since the maximum wasn’t achieved, nothing was achieved. Guaidó has achieved many things. Logic suggests that one must continue working.” Salamanca fears an even greater risk than Guaidó’s survival: “There is a serious danger of a massive stampede of parties and opposition members. People are now very frustrated.”
Despite all the differences, Guaidó has for many months retained the support of virtually all of the major opposition parties. But leaders closer to Capriles are showing their annoyance at the patronage of US conservative sectors. Some leaders close to Guaidó fear desertions in favor of Capriles.
The Primero Justicia, Capriles’ party and one of the key parties of the opposition group, had long debates over the announcement of one of its main leaders. In particular, because there are many people among its ranks who consider that taking part in the legislative elections is still the only option to face Maduro.
However, Chavismo continues taking steps to seduce opponents and divide them from within. In addition to over 100 pardons granted to prisoners and persecuted persons, and the letter inviting the EU and the UN to attend as election observers, a Supreme Court ruling on Friday nullified the appointment of the dissident Luis Parra as the highest representative of the Primero Justicia, theoretically returning the party’s control to its leaders, one of the opposition’s requests. Now the same is expected to occur with the Acción Democrática and the Voluntad Popular parties.
Recognizing Mistakes
Primero Justicia issued a statement in which it maintained that it will not take part in the elections, because there are no electoral conditions and the pandemic prevents them from being held. But although the text notes that those who disobey this approach will be punished, it launches an attack on Guaidó: “We must humbly acknowledge a series of mistakes and the inability to rectify the condition of the interim government, which prevented defeating the dictatorship and easing the suffering of Venezuelans.” The text proposes “to open an honest debate to rebuild the organization and the opposition’s activities,” which shows that even within what is known as the G4, which includes the main opposition parties, Guaidó has guaranteed support for his path.
According to Salamanca, Capriles is looking for a way to regain his leadership in what will undoubtedly be the next cycle of the opposition. But he warns that without Guaidó, he will not have the power to mobilize, so unity remains a prerequisite. Salamanca says that what Guaidó has achieved is what in military terms can be referred to as a “bridgehead,” the moment when, if backup comes, one can move from defense to attack.
Guaidó’s weariness, in the opinion of author and political analyst Pedro Benítez, is entirely logical and does not necessarily mean that the end of his cycle is approaching. “Guaidó has raised expectations that have not been met and this has cost him support. He still holds many strong cards, however, and the most important of all, in addition to international and Latin American support, is that he continues to be a popular leader.”
Colette Capriles points out a very important aspect: the sanctions imposed on the government and the Chavista leadership. “Without them, Maduro wouldn’t be in a position to give up anything. Chavismo’s goal in the elections is to pull Guaidó out of the game. If they occur in December, it would succeed, even declaring the continuity of the interim government, which would be a government in exile, as it virtually is. The extension of the interim government has no legal foundation, even if it can be sought, but it also has no political foundation.”
Source: El País